Three or four times a year, I post my “State of the Draft”, which is a collection of what I hear from sources in and around the league to try to work towards what NFL teams may do.
This is our final edition of “State of the Draft”, which includes five potential trades, who wants Paxton Lynch and where they need to go to get him, where Myles Jack may end up, Robert Nkemdiche in first round, and more.
Draft Day Updates (11:30am EST)
-Told that the Jaguars had spoken with people inside and respected by the organization about their likely selection of Joey Bosa, and the decision makers weren’t swayed. There’s a great chance that Jacksonville would take Bosa even over Jalen Ramsey should he fall to five.
-At least one member of the Vikings front office, and a part of the decision making process, values Laquon Treadwell over Josh Doctson as a receiver. Whether the whole team will agree (or whether Docston will be available when they pick) is still up for debate.
Trade Options
- I was told the Jaguars and Chargers have flirted interest in a swap, being that the Chargers don’t need to pick their OT/DE of choice over the Cowboys, and they don’t covet Jalen Ramsey. They’re rumored to be content with staying put if it’s not for the right offer, and it may be up to the Jaguars to pony up a high enough draft pick to secure their most coveted player….If/when this happens, the Cowboys can draft Ezekiel Elliott without a vicious war room battle. They might take Elliott even if Ramsey is available. The coaching staff and Jerry Jones want Elliott.
- Even if Laremy Tunsil is available, I’m not ruling out a trade down for the Ravens at 6. It may only be the case, however, if the Jets feel that the 49ers may take Paxton Lynch, or if the Titans truly do value Tunsil enough to move back up. If they move down, I’m told Robert Nkemdiche and Josh Doctson could be their targets.
- If Tunsil makes it to the Browns, Cleveland would happily trade the pick to the Bears or Titans to give them the top tackle in the class in exchange for an added secondary round pick. Important note for Cleveland: They’re not looking to just “collect” picks. They value Top-75 picks. Look for them to move back (if possible) in round one, but try and secure more (and trade up for) 2nd and 3rd round picks. Ideally, they leave this class with 6 top-100 picks, if not more.
- The Falcons, barring Leonard Floyd and maybe Myles Jack are available, would really like to trade down. Indianapolis isn’t looking to move their pick (need OL bad), so if a team wants to jump ahead of the Bills and Jets for a quarterback, Atlanta is the spot. Atlanta would love to move back, add an extra second or third. Their need at linebacker is great, but they like a handful of second round LBs (Su’a Cravens) as well.
- If Lynch makes it to 17 (certainly possible if he escapes the top-12 and the Saints interest isn’t sincere), I expect four teams to consider the move up: Cleveland (least likely), the Broncos (he’s atop their QB board), the 49ers (would be a coup), or the Jets themselves (knowing they need to).
- But, on Denver: I believe Colin Kaepernick will be a Bronco before the draft weekend is over. Denver and San Francisco have been in a chess game for a while, and I believe Paxton Lynch is tied to both teams’ decision making. I’ll say it’s Kaepernick and a 5th to Denver for a 2nd. Regardless, Denver will add a quarterback before Saturday.
- While all the above trades are all possible (with #4 being the most likely of them), I would be surprised if the Redskins make their selection at 21 overall, barring Ryan Kelly of Alabama is on the board. If he’s not, the pick will have plenty of interest for teams looking to secure their top rated receiver. Washington could move down to 24 with a handful of teams. Two of my guesses: Bengals (Josh Docston) or Ravens from round two (Noah Spence). Targets for the Redskins if they move back: Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech), Michael Thomas (WR, Ohio State)
Player – Team Fits
-Circling back from earlier: The Cowboys coaching staff and Jerry Jones want Ezekiel Elliott. Feeling is he’ll be the pick at 4, but I’ll be thoroughly angry if they end up with Ramsey and I change a pick I’ve had since January.
-If Chip was running war room, I think the pick would likely be Paxton Lynch. However, it seems like that the 49ers will take Bucker, Tunsil or Stanley (in that order)
-At least 12 teams dropped Myles Jack because of his knee injury, including the Cowboys and Giants. However, two sources tell me to keep an eye on the Dolphins. One of Jack, Elliott, Lawson or Hargreaves are likely pick at 13. If Jack is there, he’d be my choice (and potentially there’s as well). He reportedly cleared their medical check, and they’re aware of the potential long-term issues. Another source pointed to the Dolphins understanding of Jay Ajayi’s injury and his ability to play on it, which is a similar knee situation that Jack may have if he has issues in the next 4-5 years.
-I’ve heard four teams interest in Robert Nkedemiche for a while, though I’ve assumed it was more second-round interest. However, it seems now that that interest has been in round one. The four: Giants, Raiders, Bills (different than what I heard earlier in process) and Vikings.
–Jaylon Smith’s draft spot is all over the board. I know of 3-4 teams that have him off their board, and a few who feel 2nd or 3rd makes sense. I think the third round is most likely. Teams to watch in 3rd: Bears, Broncos, 49ers and Titans.
-I stated that Le’Raven Clark was likely a top-40 pick back in March, and that remains true. Where might he go? He could go anywhere from 18 (Colts)-27 (Packers). While the second round is more likely, at least three teams in that area will strong consider him if there’s an early run on OL in the first round.
-Still feel confident Keanu Neal/SAF/Florida will be a first rounder. Falcons his ceiling, Redskins, Texans, Panthers and Broncos all in the mix. I know of at least three first-round grades, all from teams in the 20s.
–Karl Joseph should leave Thursday as a Steeler or Bronco, based on what I’ve heard. Consider me surprised that he’s gone from injury/scheme question mark to first-rounder. I would advocate, and wouldn’t be shocked if he falls to Day 2 (where he likely belongs based on those concerns). Steelers could also look at DT, as I’ve been repeatedly told they are unlikely to take a CB, focusing especially on their history.
–Noah Spence has a real chance to be a first-rounder. Ravens are the team most often linked, and they could move into the top-27 to get him (above the Cardinals).
Circling Back on Things I Heard on March 29th – LINK
-Titans trade down, and why they feel the OT value is similar at 15 as it is at 1, including the Rams as a suitor
-Jets interest in Paxton Lynch
-Team to watch for Robert Nkemdiche – Oakland Raiders
–Will Jackson, Keanu Neal as first rounders
Player Note
-Think Kolby Listenbee/WR/TCU will go in the top 100, even though I think he’s a mid-Day 3 talent. All of my Top-100 projections here.
-In that list above, I (frustratingly) omitted Miami (FL) CB Artie Burns. He’ll be a top-50 pick.
–Sheldon Day has been somewhat forgotten in the draft build-up since the Senior Bowl. Teams just aren’t that excited about him as a top-two rounder. Two teams with the most interest: Jaguars and Seahawks. Still, he’s more likely to be a 4th rounder than a 2nd.
-I’ve echoed this on radio shows, but I don’t think I’ve ever typed it: It’s not a strong running back class, at least for teams looking for lead-back options or pass-catchers. Elliott, Henry, Booker, Dixon and Booker likely the only “feature” backs. But for third-down pass-catchers, the two that most often come up that teams covet early on Day 3: San Jose State’s Tyler Ervin and Texas Tech’s DeAndre Washington. I expect both to go within 20 picks of each other.
–Shawn Oakman/DE/Baylor won’t be drafted. But Western Kentucky TE Tyler Higbee will be. Likely a 2nd round pick before the incident thanks to a bad tight end class, but he’ll still likely be a 5th or even 4th round pick.
-Teams seem to love this safety class. I think we’ll see five go in the top-50 (not including Jalen Ramsey): Karl Joseph, Keanu Neal, Darian Thompson, Vonn Bell, TJ Green. A few after that who could go soon after: BC’s Justin Simmons (3rd), Central Michigan’s Kavon Frazier (3rd-4th), Middle Tennesse State’s Kevin Byard (3rd-4th) and Missouri Western’s Mike Jordan (4th-5th)
-Late round WR to know who’s gotten ample attention: Chester Rogers, Grambling State.
Please shoot over questions to me on Twitter at @OptimumScouting
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