The AP poll was released today. I’m not going to link it because, let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter. All the AP poll is, is a talking point. It’s almost like the coaches poll in the sense that Central Florida and Marshall were the two highest rated ‘Other’ teams. 24 of the 25 teams are the same in each poll. The only difference is Texas is ranked in one, Missouri in the other. In fact, 16 spots were exactly the same.
What got my wheels turning wasn’t about the polls, it was about the fact that we have no idea what the hell is going to happen this season. We have no idea who the starting quarterback is going to be yet. We think it’s going to be Gunner Kiel. But last year we also thought that Brendon Kay was going to start. Who knows if Brendon Kay would have played that much if Munchie Legaux didn’t get his leg destroyed against Illinois?
We have no idea how the selection committee will work yet. Since there isn’t really much of a chance on earth Cincinnati will crash the playoff, we need to know how the committee will rank teams outside of the power 5. Right now, and for a while, we have no idea. Will Cincinnati getting off to a late start this season help or hurt their case? Will a loss to Ohio State put Cincinnati last in the pecking order? Is there already a preordained pecking order? Is Cincinnati at the top of it?
Let’s go back to the playoff. BYU coach Kyle Whittingham said that BYU would need back to back undefeated seasons to make the playoff. I feel like this is pretty much fair thinking for everyone on the outside. The outside teams are going to get a chance for one or two big guns a year. The strength of schedule these teams have pales in comparison to the slates the power conference teams. Playing Florida, Georgia and Auburn in a row is a little more impressive than South Florida, Tulane and Houston. Playing Florida State, North Carolina and NC State is better than playing Troy, Louisiana Tech and Utah State. Going back to BYU, they loaded up on name opponents this season like Texas, Virginia, California and Boise State. The bad news is all of those programs are down or in transition. Texas is under a new coach, Virginia and Cal were awful last year, Boise isn’t quite looked at as the same after their down year.
For the boost Cincinnati gets by playing Ohio State, it takes a hit with nearly the entire league schedule. Miami University cancels out the real Miami. There isn’t a conference game that hooks anyone right now. But, that’s the thing about the uncertainty. Central Florida wasn’t suppose to win the league last year. It was Louisville’s league to win. It was Louisville who was suppose to crash the BCS bowl game and win impressively. Only, that didn’t happen. Louisville lost to Central Florida. That spelled the end of their season. In October. Who could have seen that coming? Someone could storm through the league, beat UC or UCF and turn the favorites into a team that floats, hoping for a loss. There is not the true feeling for big games with Louisville gone and Cincinnati and UCF not playing each other. Again. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be any.
While some of the circumstances that I painted are not the best ones, I think that the uncertainty should be embraced. We don’t know what the hell is going to happen this season. We don’t know what’s going to happen with the at large spot. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the league since the consensus top teams don’t play each other. In a power league, we know what Cincinnati would face and what the rewards would be for accomplishing greatness. In this setting, we have no idea. If Cincinnati, Boise State, UCF and Marshall all go undefeated, what happens? I don’t know. You don’t know. None of us know. While that can be unsettling for the worriers, it’s pretty exciting for this writer.
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