The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has emerged as a key analytical tool in forecasting college football outcomes. And now, it’s taking its analytics to the high-stakes environment of the College Football Playoff (CFP). The FPI’s predictions are highly anticipated, offering insights into the probable outcomes of critical matchups. Let’s delve into the FPI’s expert predictions for two exciting CFP semi-final games.
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Alabama vs. Michigan – CFP Semi Final – Rose Bowl
📅 Date: 1/1/24
🕔 Time: 5:00pm ET
📺 TV: ESPN
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Odds | Total | Odds | Sportsbook |
| Alabama | +105 | +2 | -105 | Over 44.5 | -110 | |
| Michigan | -125 | -2 | -115 | Under 44.5 | -110 | |
FPI Analysis
The FPI tilts the scales in favor of Michigan, assigning them a 55.5% chance of victory, corresponding to -125 on the moneyline. In contrast, Alabama’s chance translates to +125 on the moneyline as per FPI. BetOnline aligns closely with this assessment, listing Michigan at -125 on the moneyline and Alabama at +105.
Despite Alabama’s recent surge in performance, the FPI and betting odds suggest a slightly higher probability for a Michigan win. The question remains: can Alabama continue their winning momentum and upset the odds?
Texas vs. Washington – CFP Semi Final – Sugar Bowl
📅 Date: 1/1/24
🕔 Time: 8:45pm ET
📺 TV: ESPN
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Odds | Total | Odds | Sportsbook |
| Texas | -172 | -4 | -107 | Over 63 | -110 | |
| Washington | +152 | +4 | -113 | Under 63 | -110 | |
FPI Analysis
Texas is presented as a strong favorite by the FPI, with a 69% chance to win, equating to -223 on the moneyline. However, Washington’s moneyline stands at +152 (as opposed to +223 with according to the FPI) with BetOnline, indicating a potentially closer contest than what the FPI suggests.
This discrepancy highlights Texas as the value pick, with moneyline odds of -172. Additionally, the -4 point spread on Texas also seems to offer good value.
The key question here is whether Washington’s potent air attack can penetrate Texas’s secondary, or if Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns will dominate in the Sugar Bowl.
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