I very much hope that I am mistaken, (although the odds are not against me), as it appears that the NBA and its fans have signed up for a one-way, non-refundable ticket to Stinksville.
With the lockout lifted and the CBA officially signed in to basketball law, free agency, training camp, and the two-game preseason will all take place between December 9th and December 24th, with the regular season kicking off December 25th and running through April 26th.
66 games will be played in all, and it will take a large portion of that to get players back to game-shape.
By game-shape I do not mean physical shape, as it should be safe to assume that most of the note-worthy players have stuck to if not increased their conditioning efforts in anticipation of the season’s arrival.
I am referring to the shape a team as a whole must be in on game day, and that starts with gelling as a team on the court, which could prove to be an issue.
With a 16 day gap between the start of training camp and the regular season, practice time will be limited, to say the least. 6 of the 30 NBA teams will be under new head coaches, and most likely new schemes.
Several teams, including the Blazers, will be breaking in a new starting five, one that has never played in a game together.
Even the Lakers, once a staple of experienced players and coaches, will be under a new leader, as Phil Jackson retired, and the team hired Mike Brown, the former Cleveland coach. LA is also rumored to be pursuing both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, which would leave Kobe and Pau Gasol as their only mainstays since the 2007 season. The team may even consider California native and free agent center Tyson Chandler, whose days in Dallas appear to be over. Either way they could be starting a new center, new point guard, and perhaps even a new small forward if Ron Artest follows his up and down 2010 season with more struggles to steady his game as well as his clear emotional breakdowns.
Anyone who watched the Heat, Celtics, and Suns struggle early last season with revamped line ups and new coaches understands that team chemistry takes time. The Blazers were lucky with how easily Gerald Wallace fit on the team following their trade, however that cannot be expected.
What will most likely happen is a month or so of “pick up games”. Guys learning to find each other out on the open court, learning how each player moves against different defenses, and then finding a way to optimize the scheme for who you have, not who you wish you had.
The Blazers are one of the more intriguing teams on that note, as they are going to unleash a handful of fresh faces and will probably not look very smooth out of the gates. New starting point guard Raymond Felton, acquired in a draft day trade with Denver that also sent Andre Miller packing, has not practiced with the team, and may take time to learn to play in this scheme with these players. Felton and Wallace played together in Charlotte, however that was years ago and both are in different parts of their respective careers now.
Then there is Greg Oden, the polarizing center who has played less than an entire seasons’ worth of games since being drafted in 2007, could be back on the court as early as January, leading to Felton getting used to yet another face and another playing style.
Adding to the mix and a potential issue is that the Blazers did not use the amnesty clause on Brandon Roy, who by the way is proclaiming his ability to be a starter, regardless of his knees and their true potential endurance. Let’s say he lasts until or even after the all-star break without a setback, can he play thirty plus minutes a game and consistently produce Roy type numbers? If so, fantastic, a great move by what has been a savvy front office for the past decade. If not, it leaves the team stuck with the walking project, Wesley Matthews, who is about as far along as his brother-in-project, Nicolas Batum, as neither have evolved in to the complete players everyone wants them to be.
Rudy Fernandez, who shared perhaps the deepest love-me/hate-me relationship with the fans this town has yet to see, is out the door and in Dallas. His potential replacement, sharp shooter rookie Nolan Smith of Duke, has not practiced with the team, and will most likely be asked to fit the same role as Rudy, just being a spot shooter thrown in at a moments notice, in a sink or swim atmosphere each and every time.
With LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby, Chris Johnson, Wallace, and Batum returning at full strength and already fully learned in Nate McMillian’s scheme, the front court should not be an issue, and should hopefully be the anchor of the team in both offense and defense.
However with a backcourt logjam of Roy, Matthews, Felton, and Smith; there will be plenty of options and few minutes. Then toss in Jon Diebler, the well rounded Ohio State product, and Elliot Williams, the second year rookie with plenty of potential and zero experience, as he suffered a knee injury before the regular season in 2010 and you have six potential starters to fill two spots, leaving the Blazers with some tough choices.
Felton and Roy are the most likely to fit the bill (injury aside), but the other four have a lot of upside the team won’t be able to ignore.
Matthews and Batum, on the other hand, as stated earlier, are still in project mode, and seem a year or so away from being consistent playmakers.
Wesley seems like a better fit as a role player, as he is great on defense but his sometimes smooth, sometimes reckless play on offense reminds some of former Blazer Jared Bayless, who left fans scratching their heads as often as they cheered.
Batum is another question mark, as his streaky outside shooting goes cold too often for most to stomach in a starter, and his defense has been shaky as he had a string of foot and ankle problems last year. With his health back and another offseason to pursue a better shooting ability, Batum still has the potential to become the Pippen to Roy’s Jordan that the team originally envisioned, however that remains a dream in the current state, and a fading one at that with Roy hampered by lingering and lasting knee injuries.
The Blazers have no such thing as a lack of talent, however the point here is that with a new starting five and new faces coming off of the bench, this team as well as others around the league will need time, maybe even plenty of it, to play basketball with the look and feel of the professional variety.
Sure, there are examples of instant chemistry such as the 2007 Boston Celtics, who brought in Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to team with Paul Pierce. This team stormed out to the league’s best record and even won the NBA title. They also managed to develop second year player Rajon Rondo on the fly, helping to turn him in to the top flight point guard he is today. This team went from underachieving disaster to overwhelming success overnight, and that was thanks in part to three unselfish veteran players heeding the coaching of Doc Rivers, one of the most player friendly and innovative minds in the game.
However for every 2007 Celtics, there are countless examples of mixed results, especially early on. A great example of early struggles are the 2010 Heat, who limped through the first half of the season, only to become dominant down the stretch, and were a couple of big mistakes away from perhaps winning the NBA title. Then there are the 2010 Knicks, who brought in Amare Stoudamire as a free agent and Carmelo Anthony at the trade deadline, only to be swept out of the playoffs by Boston after a so-so season by most standards.
Slow starts happen every season, but it is rare to see widespread throughout the league, and that is what I fear we are in for.
At the end of the day, regardless of you how shake it up, NBA basketball is back, and for all intents and purposes, that is a great thing. If that makes you happy, then smile big America. If you want to be in the thick of it, no matter who is playing or how they look, go for it. Just don’t expect a Lakers-Celtics type of league just yet.
For now it may look more like Kings-Cavaliers, and that is something no one is really prepared for.
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