On Tuesday, the 11 commissioners of the major conferences in the NCAA, as well as a representative of Notre Dame, finally decided that letting computers and human voters determine who plays for the college football national championship was a bad idea. Their solution was a 4-team playoff, with a committee of voters deciding the teams through strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and whether or not the team won a conference title. There are no automatic bids.
On paper, it appears to solve one of the major problems with college football. In reality, it is doubtful.
Small teams still have zero chance of playing for the title, or even competing in the playoffs. When these voters, selected from their own respective conferences, vote for a team, will it be because they are the best team, or because more teams from your own conference means more money for your school?
The Big East is expected to have little or no sway in these proceedings. Several experts maintain that an 11-1 Boise State team, or a 10-1 Syracuse would not get into the playoffs over a 2 or even 3 loss SEC or Big Ten team, regardless of who they played. We have gone from a team being shut out of playing for a title for being in third, now they get shut out for being in fifth.
A team like Boise State or San Diego State is in a no-win situation. Boise is already travelling across the country to play inter-conference games, but none of that matters when the exodus of teams continues from the Big East. Adding on to their struggle, they can ask to schedule Michigan, Alabama, or Oklahoma until they are as blue in face as their home turf, but it takes two to tango. No team with championship aspirations wants to risk playing Boise State, when playing them does not increase their strength of schedule very much, and they might lose. Better to play the Alcorn States and Tennessee-Chattanoogas of the world.
As long as teams make their own schedule, it becomes easier and easier to dodge teams like Boise State until they are no longer relevant. In college basketball, you can only dodge them for so long.
After the Big East becomes marginalized, how long before the ACC is as well? How long until only a team from the SEC, Pac-12, or Big Ten is even considered? There simply is not enough room in these “super conferences” for every team in the nation. The gap between the “haves” and the “have nots” is growing wider, and this playoff does little to stop it.
Perhaps that means it is working as intended. Bigger conferences and bigger teams mean bigger revenues for the NCAA. San Diego State and BYU might be cute stories, but it is the big boys that earn the big bucks. The NCAA is a business after all. It just happens to be a tax-exempt business where its primary employees do not get paid, regardless how much they hurt their bodies in the process.
Fans are cheering about the playoff idea. Five years down the line, will they still be cheering? When four teams from the SEC or Big Ten are selected, how many fans will realize that nothing has changed at all?
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