Opening day is a mere 10 days away, and I think baseball fans everywhere are saying the same thing: it’s about time. As entertaining as the World Baseball Classic has been, it ran its course and now it is time for the games that count. Opening night on March 31st features two teams out of the American League West, both being from the great state of Texas. I have previewed the Seattle Mariners to a large extent over the last few weeks, but today the rest of the AL West will be broken down, including my reasons why the two teams featured on opening night will both finish at the bottom of the American League West.
Let’s start with the much, much worse of those two teams
The Houston Astros
The Houston Astros will be moved to the AL West to balance out division alignment and even out both leagues. Unfortunately for Houston, this could not come at a worse time considering that the West is as strong as its ever been and the Astros are as weak as they have ever been.
Offense
Last year, Houston ranked dead last in the National League in nearly every offensive category, including hits, batting average, and runs scored. Do not expect things to change much in 2013 as they enter a new league. The middle of their lineup will feature Carlos Pena, who used to be a valuable power hitting piece, however his days of hitting 30 home runs seem long gone, not to mention he hasn’t hit above .227 since 2008. Chris Carter was acquired from Oakland this offseason in exchange for North Salem High School standout Jed Lowrie. Carter has good pop (16 HR in 67 games last year) but is still relatively young in terms of MLB experience. Like Pena, he also hits for too low of an average to be a reliable hitter in the middle of an order. One of the few bright spots in this lineup will be the young second baseman Jose Altuve, who hit a solid .290 last year, which is even more impressive considering he had virtually no protection in that lineup. Altuve is only 22 years old and his best days are still ahead of him. Houston is starting to build a solid group of hitters in the minor leagues, but most are nowhere near ready to compete at the MLB level. Consider this team to put up numbers similar to the 2011 Mariners, and that is no simple feat.
Pitching
The difference between this team and the 2011 Mariners, is that Houston does not have the pitching depth even remotely close to that Seattle team. The only starting pitcher in this rotation that had an ERA under 4.00 is Lucas Harrell. This offseason the Astros went out and acquired starters Erik Bedard and Phillip Humber. These are not players that you can slot in your starting rotation and rely on. Bedard has struggled to stay healthy, dating back to his days with the Mariners. Minus the perfect game Phillip Humber threw, last year would be a year that he wants to forget. Expect the Astros pitching to struggle drastically, particularly against these AL West teams, who will eat up this inexperienced staff.
Projected Record: 57-105
Texas Rangers
Texas is no longer the team to beat in the AL West. With the loss of key run producers and a pitching staff with considerable question marks, it is going to be an uphill battle, especially because the majority of their division counter parts are rapidly improving.
Offense
The Rangers lineup will definitely still be a force to be reckoned with, that is for sure. But expect a decent drop off in terms of power and run production for this team. That is bound to happen when you lose three key components to your offense. The loss of Josh Hamilton is obviously a large blow, but people seem to be overlooking the loss of Mike Napoli and Michael Young as well. This lineup is losing potentially 80 home runs and I am not convinced they have brought in enough talent to withstand that drop off. The addition of AJ Pierzynski and Lance Berkman are both solid pickups, but they are not players that can carry a team down the stretch. If the Rangers are going to make a run in this division, they desperately need large production from prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt. I’m not saying they won’t have one of the best lineups in the league. Sluggers such as Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Nelson Cruz will keep the lineup formidable and very dangerous. But this is no longer the best offense in the AL West. Top to bottom, they are simply not as strong as they have been for the last three years.
Pitching
This Rangers lineup currently has more question marks than answers. The top of the rotation is extremely solid with Japanese sensation Yu Darvish at the helm. Darvish proved last year that he wasn’t some gimmick from overseas. He has electric stuff, including a fastball that can touch upper 90’s and an absolutely diabolical slider. Matt Harrison is a dependable starter that has logged 190+ innings for years. After these two pitchers there are some red flags. Derek Holland has not been a reliable pitcher ever since the 2011 playoffs. Alexi Ogando was effective out of the bullpen last year and is transitioning back into a starter. He could very well have success this year, but he is not a pitcher to bank on, he must prove that he can make the switch. If Texas would have been able to retain Ryan Dempster, I would be feeling much better about this staff. By the end of the year, the Rangers staff may prove me wrong, but right now the status of this rotation is up in the air, partially because they play half their games in a whiffle ball park.
Projected Record: 85-77
Oakland Athletics
The A’s took the sports world by storm in 2012 and captured the AL West crown on the last day of the season. It is always hard to predict this Billy Beane team because year in and year out their roster changes drastically, but one thing is for sure: last year was no fluke
Offense
At first glance, many uninformed fans would shrug off this A’s lineup because of their lack of “Star Power”. Don’t be fooled. Although Oakland does not boast many marquee names, they have players that are tailor made for Billy Beane’s style of Money Ball. Coco Crisp is a painfully pesky leadoff hitter that could easily steal 40 bags this year. Look for Yoenis Cespedes to improve off of his dazzling rookie campaign, as he further adjusts to Major League pitching. He is a 5 tool player who has only gotten his feet wet. Josh Reddick may come back to earth this year, but that does not mean he can’t have another nice year, expect a higher average from him with maybe slightly less power. For years I have been saying John Jaso is a player Beane drools over, well he finally got his man in a three way trade with Oakland and Seattle. What Jaso lacks in batting average, he’ll make up for with a high OBP and valuable versatility in the field. This Oakland lineup won’t be world beaters by any means, but they will be strong enough considering the ridiculous pitching staff the A’s will have.
Pitching
This is the reason Oakland will make a run in this tough division. The pitching of the A’s will be their bread and butter. Last year at one point, Oakland had an all-rookie rotation, but you wouldn’t have known that from watching them. Studs such as, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, and A.J Griffin carried this team down the stretch last year and were a large reason why Oakland ended up taking the division from Texas. Keep in mind that this was after they lost their ace Brett Anderson and the ageless Bartolo Colon for the season. The Oakland bullpen is also solidified as closer Grant Balfour came into his own last year and established himself as one of the most fierce some relief men in the entire American League. The old adage “good pitching beats good hitting” sounds cliché, but clichés are formed because they are often true. This team could easily have a top 3 rotation in baseball and keep in mind this staff is unbelievably young. When the offense falters the pitching will be right there to pick them up and possibly bring them into the playoffs.
Projected Record: 90-72
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Offense
The Angels have the best lineup in baseball and it’s not even close. Mark Trumbo is the 4th best hitter in this lineup, that’s not a typo, 4th best. Mike Trout leads off for this team and I don’t think there’s much more to be said for heir apparent to Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays. Following him is Erik Aybar and, as AL West fans know, he is one of the most infuriating players to play against. Aybar is an expert at playing small ball and can be lethal in so many different ways. In the three and four spots are two of the greatest hitters of our generation: Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Don’t be fooled by Pujols’ “down year” in 2012. It took him a while to adjust to AL pitching; but he caught fire in the second half and still put up 30 bombs and 100+ RBI. Mark Trumbo could easily blast 35+ home runs and he is expected to hit in the five hole. Howie Kendrick does not have the flash that others in this lineup do, but he is very effective in the 6th spot and is an above average second baseman in every aspect. Peter Bourjos is the second leadoff hitter, likely rounding off the lineup in the 9th spot. If Bourjos can hit for a higher average, look for him to be a threat on the base paths, the guy has world class speed. This lineup should strike fear into the hearts of any opponent they play. On paper it is the deadliest in all of baseball.
Pitching
To compliment an undeniably potent offense, the Angels also have great depth in the pitching department, particularly in their starting rotation. At the top is Jered Weaver, a true ace and could be argued as a top five pitcher in baseball. There is not much drop off behind him. C.J. Wilson has proven himself as a dominant starter and is easily one of the best number 2’s in all of baseball. Jason Vargas was traded for during the offseason in exchange for Kendrys Morales, in a deal that was beneficial to both sides. Vargas went over 200 innings last year and fits in perfectly as a number three. At the back end of the rotation are Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson, neither will set the world on fire, but they don’t have to. As long as they can give this team six somewhat quality innings, it is all that the club needs. This pitching staff does not quite matchup to the likes of Oakland, but they will still be on the top half of the American league, which is more than enough considering this team’s lineup. If these Angels do not reach the post season this year, it would be one of the biggest flops in recent Major League history.
Projected Record: 98-64
Aside From Houston, this AL West will be a gauntlet to get through. Four teams are looking to make a run at this division and that includes the Seattle Mariners, who clearly have their work cut out for them. As I stated above, the Astros could not have picked a worse time to join this pack of wolves. Expect a vicious dog fight the entire year, but at the end of the day, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are clearly the team to beat, meaning, it is their division to lose.
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