Leg 2: @ Jeld-Wen Field – Thursday, 8:00. TV on the NBC Sports Network.
What It Means For Portland: 1-0-0, 1st Seed in the Western Conference
The Portland Timbers are so close. They are just hours away from cementing the most famous victory in the history of Soccer City, USA, and cementing their place as Portland's second legendary soccer team and first of the MLS era. All that glory is ready and beckoning.
Every way you look at it, the hard part is done: The Timbers went to Seattle to play in a football stadium where they had never won, then played on a football gridiron and won. Portland won with panache. They executed their pragmatic game plan to perfection, and took their two chances with enough clinical ability to make the goal-scorers honorary Germans. They gave up a late goal, which prevented an all-out party, but they still took the game 2-1. It was generally agreed upon before the series started that a win in Seattle for the Timbers would end the Sounders' chances. You've heard the statistics bandied about this week: If you take away the Montreal game, which is little more than an anomaly in a season of history, Portland hasn't lost at Jeld-Wen Field since July 2012. They've never lost with both Diego Chara and Will Johnson in the starting lineup. Seattle will have to win by two goals to win in normal time, a one-goal Sounders victory won't even win them the series, it will only send it to extra time. Mission impossible, right?
Wrong. On the opposite side of the bracket, the number one seed New York gave up a stoppage time goal at number four seed Houston, and the Dynamo shocked the Red Bulls in Harrison to win the series in the return fixture. In MLS' last eight playoff series, the higher-seeded team has only won once. Teams with playoff experience tend to do very well – take LA, that Houston team, Sporting KC, and yes, Seattle, for example. Those Sounders have heard for a week how their season is over. They may just be a little tired of being given zero chance in Portland. Seattle has great players. At some point, they're going to wake up. It may be in 2014. But it may be Thursday night. The Timbers can have zero complacency. They can have zero relaxed moments. They have to pound the Sounders from the opening whistle. They have kept what is sure to be an earth-shattering crowd dancing all night long.
What It Means For Seattle – 1-0-1, 4th Seed in the Western Conference
In this beleaguered season, there's one final test, one final chance for redemption. The Sounders swung and missed on Saturday night, losing at home to the Timbers and, courtesy of their gridiron field, backfiring tifo, and half-empty stadium, looking amateur while they lost. Seattle has had so many chances to pull their act together, one must wonder if this team can still recognize one of those chances when it comes. Sigi Schmid knows he's gone if Seattle doesn't turn this tie around. And the most ballyhooed team in MLS, the side that was supposed to usher in MLS 3.0, will be in for a very uncomfortable offseason a first-round loss to "little-brother" ends the season. That goal Seattle pulled back in the first leg was important. But any suggestion that they grabbed the momentum heading into the return leg was premature and near-sighted. The Sounders will have to start bright, and make their own luck if they want to have a chance at Jeld-Wen.
Tactics
For Portland, we're going to see an unchanged team. No point in meddling with a winning formation, and Ryan Johnson more than earned his place up top at CenturyLink Field. Besides, Porter likes his physical presences against Seattle's center-backs Hurtado and Traore. Maxi Urruti, who last played at home against Seattle, could be on the bench – but it's highly unlikely he is thrown into the starting lineup. An energizer-type like Urruti needs match-fitness to be effective. Porter could decide he wants to challenge Seattle's shaky defense early – Caleb coached DeAndre Yedlin in college, and knows that he isn't much of a defender.
The Sounders are getting three huge names back. Michael Gspurning, who was possessed by a basketball player last time he was seen on a pitch, will be back in goal replacing the dodgy Marcus Hahnemann after the expiration of his suspension. Yedlin, who missed the first leg with a twisted ankle, will be back replacing Zach Scott, who has a cracked rib. And most notably of all, Seattle DP, World Cup and Premier League veteran Obafemi Martins could make his first appearance in over a month. Martins has been nearing fitness for some time, and with Lamar Neagle suspended and Seattle chasing goals, Martins could be pressed into action. It'll be interesting to see if he starts – he's one player that could scare Portland's sturdy back-line.
The Timbers are going to do what they do, especially at home. They know their team, they know their tactics, and there's no confusion. Porter won't send his troops out to play in a shell, as they know one goal could clinch the series, but Portland won't bomb forward either – Porter has learned over the course of the season that pragmatism isn't a sin, and 1-0 is the best result in soccer. Seattle, on the other hand, has decisions to make. With Portland having not conceded a home goal since August, the question is how far to press the match and how early?
Does Seattle keep faith in the diamond midfield? We could see Schmid deal his jokers and everything else in his hand by playing Seattle's three DPs plus Eddie Johnson together for the first time this ever. Martins' availability from the start is a question, as is Mauro Rosales – does he start, and in place of who? Most likely Adam Moffat, who has struggled as of late. In any case, Porter will have to react to what Schmid does. Sigi has been known to get it wrong tactically in the playoffs in the past; he has no room for error in this one.
Key Matchup
Set-pieces. Always a bit of an issue for the Timbers, it's how Seattle hit the jackpot in the first leg, and had all their chances. If Portland can clean it up from the dead ball plays, the Sounders will have trouble scoring. They created nothing from open play on Saturday.
Final Thoughts
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the role referee Hilario Grajeda will play (Grajeda is the same man who refereed the Portland-Seattle game in September and sent off Osvaldo Alonso). And let's just say things go well for Portland as the game goes on. We could see a phenomenal Seattle meltdown. The Sounders have their heads screwed on very, very loosely. In that case, the Timbers must be smart. Nothing silly ruining a potential Western Conference Final. Also: It will be rocking like you've never seen Jeld-Wen Field rock. The message will be clear: Seattle, this is how you host a playoff game.
Prediction
That Timbers defense is the most inspiring thing Portland has going right now. The Gambians and the Midwesterners back there are the keys. Lock it down early, and things will open up on the attack as Seattle start to press. 1A in the most inspiring category? The Army that will be at the team's back, and the belief that this bunch have carried all throughout the season. Seattle just can't match that belief. Portland wins 2-0.
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