Colin Kaepernick – Russell Wilson Showdown 4.0

Colin Kaepernick versus Russell Wilson.  Or as the media likes to spin it: one is a bicep-kissing, Cam Newton-dissing bad guy, while the other is a humble, mild-manner, children’s-hospital-regular good guy.   As we gear up for the NFC Championship game on Sunday, the fourth time these two QBs will faceoff, this comparison has bombarded this week’s headlines, maybe only second to the media coverage on Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning.  It’s easy to pit Kaepernick and Wilson against each other because they seem like opposites, but they actually have a lot in common. 

Same But Different

Both are young quarterbacks in their second year as starters on their squad.  Both have great arms – both were drafted as baseball players prior to their NFL careers – but they can run the ball as good as any receiver.  Both began in the NFL as underdogs.  Kaepernick was the backup QB, warming the bench his rookie year until starter Alex Smith was injured in week 10 of the 2012 season.  Wilson wasn’t drafted until the Seahawks picked him in the third round, 75th overall, and despite his atypical stature for a QB at 5’11,” he beat out the more experienced Matt Flynn during the 2012 preseason. 

Not Just Traditional QB Numbers

Kaepernick struggled at the beginning of this season.  With the exclusion of the first game against the Green Bay Packers, in the following four games, Kaepernick passed an average of 139 yards, completed 50% of his passes, and had only 3 touchdowns (TDs) and 4 interceptions (INTs).  Ugly games against the Indianapolis Colts and the Seahawks had Fantasy Football owners and critics using terms like “regressing” and “sophomore slump” for the guy who just led his team to the Super Bowl earlier that year. 

Kaepernick continued to labor against playoff-caliber teams like the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints, but with the return of receivers Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, so too did Kaepernick’s arrogance confidence.  In the 49ers’ last eight straight wins, he has averaged 227 yards, 60% pass completions, and a total of 12 TDs and 2 INTs.

Criticism of Wilson, on the other hand, came later in his season.  It centered on the Seahawks’ only home loss during the 2013 regular season against the Arizona Cardinals and the divisional playoff game against the Saints when Wilson passed only 108 and 103 yards respectively, with a two-game total of one TD and one INT.  Also not a Fantasy owners’ favorite, Wilson’s numbers weren’t consistent: he’d throw a gem of a game like against the Cardinals away (passing for 235 yards and 62.1% completions, 3 TDs and no INT), then follow it with a head-scratcher against the St. Louis Rams (passing for 139 yards and 55.6% completions, 2 TDs and no INT).

Take a look at how they compare with their regular season totals – very similar:

And just for fun, let’s throw in Tom Brady and Peyton Manning’s totals as well:

One stat I find interesting is the number of games the four QBs threw 150 yards or less:

Brady (2), Kaepernick (5), Manning (1), Wilson (4). 

The point of this is to show that there’s more to Kaepernick and Wilson than the passing game that is the bread and butter for most traditional QBs like Brady and Manning.  For Kaepernick and Wilson, their bread and butter is running the read-option and utilizing the running game, sometimes more than their passing.  Both Kaepernick and Wilson also rely heavily on their defense and spreading the responsibility rather than just having one or two go-to guys.

Supporting Cast X Factor

The 49ers have momentum in their favor, getting hot at the end of the season and besting the Green Bay Packers in freezing Mid-West weather and an equally young and hot Panthers team.  It will be the strength of their receivers and defense that will make things easier for Kaepernick and challenging for the Seahawks.  

Against the Panthers, the 49ers defense gave up 232 passing yards, but just 93 rushing yards.  They also sacked Cam Newton five times and forced two interceptions.  The San Francisco defense will force Wilson to pass, knowing that when he was limited to only 103 passing yards against the Saints, he made up for it with 174 rushing yards.  Marshawn Lynch led the Seahawks by rushing for 140 yards with 28 carries and two TDs.

The Seahawks have an equally, if not stronger defense than the 49ers.  However, they need to clean up the passing defense.  Though the defense limited Drew Brees’ passer rating to only 86.3, compared to his average of 104.7 this season, if the Seahawks give up 309 passing yards to the 49ers like they did the Saints, the Pro Bowlers can start packing for Hawaii.  Despite this blemish, look for Seattle’s secondary and the 12th man to be the X factor that gives the Seahawks an edge in a very tight game, one that the Vegas oddsmakers give the Seahawks a 3.5 point advantage.

While the QB is often the team leader, who sets the tone in the locker room and on the field, and both Kaepernick and Wilson will be huge factors in Sunday’s game, the fate of each team is not entirely on them.   That’s not the nature of football as a team sport, nor is it the style of either team’s play.

Both Wilson and the Seahawks and Kaepernick and the 49ers deserve to be in the NFC Championship game, so may the best team win! 

Go Hawks!