On Tuesday the Portland Trail Blazers had a rough start to the second half of their season. Despite having multiple chances to put away the game against the Oklahoma City, the offense was unable to sustain a run and the defense failed to clamp down in the second half as we have seen over and over this season. It was a big loss that tells a lot about where this team is going, but so will the next quarter of the schedule, a 20-game stretch which will end as the last one did with a road trip through Texas. Let’s take a look at where the Blazers will have to be successful so that they don't find themselves making up ground in March and April.
Key Games: February 7th at the Indiana Pacers
I used to get angry anytime an announcer would mention how overrated Nicolas Batum is defensively. Not anymore. A Kevin Durant that is on fire is just unfair, as we saw with his two dagger threes in the final minute of Tuesday’s game, but the reason he was feeling it in the fourth was Batum’s inability to position himself in the first half. Too often was Nic on his heels, over pursuing or caught hanging back when Reggie Freaking Jackson was dribbling, leaving Durant to either take open jumpers or drive at Portland’s hapless bigs. When Paul George came to town earlier in the year, it was the same story and George shot out of his mind down the stretch of a game the Pacers had no business being in. Kevin Durant and Paul George may be freaks of nature, but if you are supposed to be your team’s best perimeter defender you should be able to hold these guys to less than 40 points every once in a while. Terry Stotts has to be thinking that if Batum struggles early, it might be worth sacrificing a couple inches by having Wesley Matthews (who has played much more consistent defense this year) guard George and putting Batum on Lance Stephenson in the second half.
February 19th the San Antonio Spurs
If the playoffs were to start today the Blazers would face Golden State in the first round and have to face San Antonio if they advanced to round two. The third seed is probably the Blazers as good a position as Portland can hope for right now, but no matter where they end up they are almost guaranteed to face the Thunder, Spurs, Houston Rockets or the Los Angeles Clippers if they make it to the second round. Consecutive losses to the Rockets and Thunder have made their matchups look grim, and there's too much of a cloud around the Clippers (Will they trade Blake Griffin? Will Chris Paul come back fully healthy? How much will Doc Rivers improve this team by year’s end?) to make any judgments. That leaves the Spurs as the only Western Conference contender that the Blazers can feel fully confident playing against in a seven game series. Robin Lopez has played above average against Tim Duncan. Damian Lillard played so well against Tony Parker so far this year that I am beginning to wonder whether Parker even suited up for those games. Nic Batum has his most Nic Batumy games against San Antonio (nine points, nine rebounds and seven assists last Friday and an 11/12/11 line in November). If they can continue to dominate the defending champions as they have so far Portland will at the very least have some breathing room if they end up falling to one of the bottom three seeds.
Trap games: January 28th vs. Memphis
The Grizz have won seven of their ten and are primed to make a second half push for the eight seed. Portland will be playing their sixth game in eight days. Coach Dave Joerger—winner of this year award for Coach Most Likely to Also Be an Orthodontist (narrowly beating out Mike Budenholzer)—can rotate Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Ed Davis and Kosta Koufos without ever being without a dependable rebounder/post defender. Whenever Joel Freeland checks in at center the defense becomes as shakier that when Kellen Winslow goes to Target. The Blazers have yet to play this Grizzlies team this season and given how tough the last two weeks have been don’t be surprised if a tired Blazers team gets discouraged early and fails to mount a comeback.
February 8th at the Minnesota Timberwolves
March 1st vs. the Denver Nuggets
My favorite type of trap game is the “We lost to you two weeks ago and this means more to us” kind of game. If Minnesota loses at home this Saturday then it will push a team with wounded pride even further from the playoffs. Even though they are a game under .500, the Timberwolves have a point differential of 5.0 which is seventh best in the league. Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love from enough of an inside presence to hang around ball games, and if Ricky Rubio is hitting his shots they become a totally different ball club. Meanwhile, Denver will have played the Blazers just five days before, and, like Memphis, will be desperately trying to catch Dallas for the eighth seed especially without their own first round pick to tank for.
The Game: Feb 11th vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder
Until a) Portland is more than a game ahead of OKC or b) they have clinch the season series against the Thunder, this will continue to be the most important game for the Blazers and might become one of the better rivalries in the West. There is an outside that Russell Westbrook can return before the All-Star break, but if this miracle doesn’t come to be, Damian Lillard has to take advantage of his matchup against Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher. Lillard has been running the point for one and a half years now, so a less experienced defender shouldn’t be able to affect him as much as Jackson did on Tuesday. Lillard was 0 for 5 from deep and rarely was able to exploit pick and rolls or transition opportunities. If Durant is going to keep putting up MVP numbers every game, then Lillard is going to have to be a more focused finisher to give Stotts a second option late in games.
Blazer to Watch: Thomas Robinson
I said he was the player to watch last time and he didn’t exactly break through. Robinson actually lost his spot at one time to Meyers Leonard. Read that sentence again. Stotts hasn’t made many mistakes this season, so when you get benched in favor of Meyers “If You Want to Trade With Us You Have To Take Him” Leonard, that means you are doing something wrong. While he hasn’t stood out on the floor, he definitely isn’t the two-way train wreck “Beaker on Steroids” has been. Stotts has been relying on LaMarcus Aldridge almost exclusively in the final two minutes of games, and we have finally seen the effects of that on this Texas trip, where he is missing shots and a step late on help defense in the fourth. Robinson needs to get it going from the floor and Stotts could do a lot worse than to exploit his athleticism on the pick and roll and let the Blazers guards create easy looks for him so that he doesn’t have to rely so much on cutting and put backs, which is where most of his points have come from.
Story to Watch: Injuries
This is preposterous. There is no way this team is going to make it another 20 games without some injury to someone in the starting lineup. The question then is will the rotation, as shaky as it is, fall apart completely or can they keep the team afloat for a couple weeks. Obviously, if Aldridge is out for more than ten games things will begin to go downhill, but I think that if Lillard were to miss some games, it wouldn’t be as damaging as Batum or Robin Lopez missing time because Mo Williams and CJ McCollum should be able to match about 80 percent of his production. If Lopez goes out, there is not only the drop-off from him to Freeland, but there is also the strain that his absence will but on Aldridge, which would give us all flashbacks to last season. If Batum were to go out, that would mean big minutes for Dorell Wright (who has been sneakily ineffective lately) and would prompt the return of (shudder) Victor Claver, and ain’t nobody wanna see that.
Potential Moves: None
There is no market right now with everyone bracing for next year’s draft and free agency class. Any move to plug a hole at center or the wing would have to include a role player, which would just create another hole. Unless there is another Thomas Robinson being floated around (there isn’t) or the can get solid value as the third team is a blockbuster trade (which we probably won't happen this year) it is best to sit tight and ride this team’s chemistry to the finish line.
Prognosis:
If… LA gets hurt and the bench continues to disappoint, then the Blazers will lose half of their next twenty and limp into their last quarter of games in the seventh seed.
If… Some starters miss time but the role players hold down the fort, then Portland will come out of this stretch in one of the middle seeds.
If… the starters stay healthy and Thomas Robinson gets comfortable, the Blazers will go to Houston on March 9th with enough momentum to finish the year strong and contend for one of the top two seeds.
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