The Portland Trail Blazers started off hot. They were the ‘Cinderella Story’ of the NBA. It didn’t just last through the first month, it continued from November through most of January. Then, all of the sudden, they ran into a wall. Was it fatigue? Was the schedule that much tougher? Did the switch in rotation minutes mess with chemistry?
These are all valid questions, and it could very well be a combination of the three. No matter the cause, the All-Star break is here and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Portland needs to get back to their winning ways. The break, for all but two – LaMarcus Aldridge and a packed weekend for Damian Lillard will stop these two from getting much rest – is a much needed one for the Blazers.
I will break down the grades into separate categories of the following: coaching, starting backcourt (guards), starting frontcourt (forwards and centers), bench backcourt, and bench frontcourt.
Coach Terry Stotts: B+
The Blazers stayed among the top-3 in the Western Conference for most of this season. It wasn’t until they lost back-to-back games to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers this week that they slipped outside of that range. They now find themselves in a two-way tie for third with the Houston Rockets. As ESPN’s standings show it, Portland sits as a 5-seed. If playoffs started today, Portland would be on the road against the Clippers in the first round even though the Clippers trail by half of a game. The Clippers are a division leader, which gives them home court advantage in the first round.
The recent struggles and lack of defense from Portland are the reasons to why Terry Stotts doesn’t get a grade-A here. He has still done a phenomenal job this season, so I couldn’t knock him too much for the recent struggles. I sometimes question his mix in the rotation. But I get it. Some of the guys have been inconsistent, and when that happens, you have to give other players a shot. We’ll get to those guys.
Very few people expected Portland to be a contender in the West, let alone be a playoff team. Stotts and company have emerged as just that. Right now, I believe they are one veteran big away from contending for the NBA Championship. Before Kevin Durant decided to go all apocalyptic on the entire league, Portland was cracking the top spot in the West and had all eyes on them (Durant’s 34.73 PPG in 2014 alone is 3 points better than his season average and OKC is 14-2 in their last 16 games). Forgive me for even bringing his name up, 2007 NBA Draft dwellers.
The offense and rebounding from Portland has been top-notch (1st in the league in both). Their offensive rating is still at the top of the league while their defensive rating is treading between middle of the pack and the bottom of the league. But hey, the objective of the game is to score more than your opponent, right? Portland has outscored their opponents 36 times, failing on 17 other attempts.
Starting Backcourt: A
Damian Lillard has added to his ROY performance with another great season in his young NBA career. Lillard will represent Portland in New Orleans for the NBA All-Star game along with teammate LaMarcus Aldridge. It doesn’t stop there for Lillard. He will also participate in the Rising Stars Challenge, Skills Challenge, Three-Point Contest, and the Dunk Contest.
Wait, there’s more, he will also help lay down the court, direct traffic, valet, sell hot dogs and soda to guests, and referee the NBA Charity Game. Okay, maybe not, but he is also hosting his 4-bar Friday during the weekend events. You can call him Mr. All-Star or Mr. Everything. The guy can do it all. Neil Olshey drafting Lillard was a complete game changer for this franchise.
Wesley Matthews shot LIGHTS OUT to begin the season. Though, he has died down a little bit. He went from shooting 50%+ from deep to a solid 41% from beyond the arc and he is holding strong at number 5 in offensive rating. (basketball-reference)
Matthews’ health has been great – a big reason for the improved shooting and offensive production. The guy that has been referred to as “Iron Man” hasn’t had to play through injuries this year, as he has in the past.
Starting Frontcourt: A+
Wow, what a difference Robin Lopez has made for these Blazers. Lopez allows Aldridge to play his game and stay at his position. He doesn’t have to guard the bigger guy every time down – tiring him out – or have to worry about the other big on the floor because he can actually trust Lopez’ defense. That has been the biggest improvement for this team. He averages nearly a double-double in points per game (12.4) and rebound per game (9.6).
Aldridge is averaging career highs with 23.9 PPG and 11.4 RPG. He has been as high as number 3 on the NBA MVP Ladder. He should be starting in the All-Star game. Everyone knows this. I just hope he gets his minutes this time around.
Nicolas Batum has been the all-around player that he is. Playing with a broken finger on his non-shooting hand has caused his shooting percentage to slip a little. He has continued to get better every year, statistically. His points are a little down, but with Matthews’ improvement, a better bench, and playing with a broken finger, it’s all good. His assists and rebounds have increased again, as they have every year. His scoring will start to improve once he is able to ditch the splint that he currently plays with.
Bench Guards: B
Mo Williams was the only guard giving Portland rotation minutes until C.J. McCollum returned from a foot injury. Williams has played major minutes and has been the most consistent among the bench players. When he has it going, it’s a beautiful thing to watch. But when he doesn’t, it’s frustrating to watch. He has given out some dimes (as I like to call them) here and there. He has shot very well at times, more games than not. There have also been games where he seems to force things too much – his shot and passes. When he doesn’t have it going, he continues to make mistakes, rather than fix them.
All-in-all, he has been a solid pick-up and a nice addition off the bench.
C.J. McCollum just started to find a rhythm. The past 4 games he has been the Blazers most productive bench player on the offensive end. As long as he continues from where he left off coming into the break, he should see an increased role after the break.
Bench Frontcourt: C-
Joel Freeland has been the best of this group. You don’t see much on the stats sheet from the guy, but he does what they like to call “the dirty work”. He plays hard, goes after every rebound, every loose ball, plays defense and contests shots without fouling. His unfortunate injury during the Thunder game will leave him out of action for 4-6 weeks. This may force Neil Olshey to make a trade for what the Blazers need most, a veteran big.
Thomas Robinson has been one of my favorites to watch. His energy off the bench hasn’t been matched by any other Blazer. He is great during that beginning of the 4th quarter stretch at home. If a trade happens, and he gets any minutes in games, it has to be in that moment. His rebounding is great. His defense is shaky, and he doesn’t have much of a shot, but I’ve seen flashes of a nice post game coming along.
Dorell Wright has been inconsistent. He has a good stroke, and plays adequate defense. Something always seems off when he’s on the floor, though. C.J has been taking his minutes, and I think a trade pairing him with Meyers Leonard might be Portland’s best bet.
I have become a non-believer in Leonard. I knew it was going to take some time for his development, but I didn’t realize how bad it was going to be. He has been awful most games. He has had a few good moments, but his play is the most inconsistent of anyone who has received minutes in the rotation. He has potential to be become a decent player in this league, but he is still a few years away from giving the Blazers meaningful minutes.
What to Expect After the Break
First, I would love to see Portland try to make a trade for a veteran big before the deadline. This stretch without Freeland isn’t going to be pretty. They need to make something happen to stay afloat in the West during his absence.
The break should help the Blazers regroup. If it has been fatigue that has been the cause for the recent struggles, then this long weekend will be perfect.
The schedule coming out of the All-Star break is favorable for them. They start off with a home game against San Antonio. As good as the Spurs are – Portland always plays very well against them, especially at home. 6 of their first 7 games after the break will be at home. Their opponents are the Spurs, Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Brooklyn Nets, Denver again, L.A. Lakers, and the Atlanta Hawks. The first Denver game is the lone road game in that stretch.
The favorable schedule should help to get Portland back to their winning ways. They have had a sour taste in their mouths over this past month or so. A little taste of winning should propel them back into the top of the west.
The 7 games are followed by a huge road trip that could decide their playoff fate. The five-game road trip consists of the Dallas Mavericks, Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Spurs, and New Orleans Pelicans. Fortunately, only one is a back-to-back. So there’s a plus. Will it be home court advantage or a road playoff series for Portland? This stuff is fun for us fans and media to look at, but the important thing is for the Blazers to take it one game at a time.
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