With only four games left in the regular season, the Oregon Ducks are sitting squarely on the bubble with Selection Sunday closing in fast. An 18-8 record at this point in the season is not where this team wants to be, especially considering how last season ended and how this season began.
Last season saw the Ducks make it to the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed, losing to eventual national champion Louisville. It looked as though the program had turned the corner with Coach Dana Altman. Steady improvement has been the name of the game since he was hired in 2010 with increasing win totals each season. The start of this season led fans to believe the trend would continue.
Oregon opened at #19 in the AP preseason poll and went undefeated in non-conference play, rising as high as #10. The Ducks did all of this with 9 game suspensions served by starting guard Dominic Artis and reserve forward Ben Carter. Conference play began with an overtime win at Utah. Starting 13-0 made the Ducks look like a lock for the tourney and potential regular season conference champion.
A five game losing streak followed, dropping Oregon out of the top 25. There is solace in the fact that all but one of their losses are by single digit points, including two heartbreaking one-possession losses to UCLA and Arizona, the top two teams in the PAC-12. However, close losses don't really count for anything on a NCAA tournament resume.
The current three game winning streak has greatly helped Oregon's tournament hopes, but there is a lot of work left to be done. Of the four games remaining, three are against teams ahead of them in the standings. Winning crucial games against UCLA and Arizona would massively improve their NCAA tournament resume, and anything can happen in the PAC-12 tournament.
Oregon ranks 41st in the RPI, 46th in strength of schedule and 21st in ESPN's Basketball Power Index. Those numbers are indicative of a tournament team, but the 6-8 conference record and only having three true road wins are marks of a team destined for the NIT.
Should Oregon miss the NCAA tournament, questions about Coach Altman's future are inevitable. He was brought in after an exhaustive coaching search that saw names like Tubby Smith and Tom Izzo as targets. As much as the program might not like to admit, Altman was not their first choice, or even their fifth. The $200 million dollar shadow of Matthew Knight Arena looms over everything the Oregon basketball program does. The most expensive on-campus basketball arena in the nation, the arena was meant to bring the program to national prominence. But the big time recruits are yet to arrive despite the amazing facilities and Nike's constant presence. Altman narrowly missed out on landing players like Anthony Bennett and Aaron Gordon, but just like close losses not improving a tournament resume, almost getting top recruits doesn't improve the program.
There is still a lot left to be decided, but only one tournament appearance in four seasons would not be good enough for a program with the resources and aspirations of Oregon. The next four games will have a lot to do with the direction of Ducks’ basketball going forward.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
