March Madness is officially ready to tip off with the Round of 64 running today and tomorrow, so we asked five of our writers to debate who they see as the tournament favorites, snubs, early underdog picks, biggest potential upset, and who they have as the best PAC-12 team in the tournament.
OSN writers contributing to this roundtable will be Casey Mabbott (CM), Ryan Chase (RC), Garrett Thornton (GT), Jason Hartzog (JH), and Garrett Imeson (GI).
- Who is your favorite to win the tourney and why?
(CM) Going by the “eye-test”, it’s hard to say there is an unbeatable juggernaut in this year’s bracket, although Florida certainly looks the part on paper despite their “small-ball” approach. I wouldn’t have said Louisville was a juggernaut the year prior, or Kentucky the year before that, but they both won championships and that’s what I expect from Florida this year. They swept the SEC and only lost two games all season, both close games at that. Billy Donovan’s squad plays small but extremely effective, and unless Kansas gets a healthy Joel Embiid back, the Gators should be able to get past potential roadblocks in Kansas, Syracuse, and UCLA en route to the Final Four.
(RC) I'm going with Arizona. The Wildcats are loaded with depth top to bottom, with Kaleb Tarczewski, Aaron Gordon, and Pac-12 Player of the Year Nick Johnson. Their depth goes seven players deep, and they are one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball even without Brandon Ashley. They also have the easiest region, and matchup well with the other big hitters in the bracket like Wisconsin, Creighton, and San Diego State. If they can get through Oklahoma State in the Round of 32, they may be unstoppable till they get to the Final Four.
(GT) I’m going to go out on a limb and pick a 3 seed as my favorite to win it, Duke. I feel like the matchups they face early help set up their momentum to the Final Four. Out of the contenders in this bracket I feel like they get to the Sweet 16 with the least chance of upset. In the round of 16 they will likely matchup against Michigan and in my mind the winner of that game will advance to the Final Four without much threat from the top-end of that bracket.
(JH) If Joel Embiid wasn’t out indefinitely, it would be the Kansas Jayhawks. I’m creating a second bracket just in case he unexpectedly comes back and plays in this tournament. However, with the injury to Embiid, I have been searching for a new team to run with this year. That team for me is the Wichita State Shockers. The Shockers not only went undefeated this season, but they were also a Final Four team a year ago and have several returning players from that team.
The Shockers will have a tough road to the final four – potentially playing Kentucky, Louisville (who eliminated them in last year’s Final Four and won the tournament), and either Duke or Michigan. They can get it done, though. They have what it takes to compete in this tournament. They have a great shooter in Ron Baker, a good point guard and floor general in Fred VanVleet, depth, and the experience.
(GI) Let me preface this by saying that despite my position as a sportswriter (and I like to think an acceptable one), I lose just about every bracket pool. And not just lose, lose in absolutely spectacular fashion. That said, I am going to go very chalk with my favorites. In a year when everyone is high on lower seeds (especially Michigan State), I like Florida. They are playing good basketball at the right time and have a relatively easy draw.
- Which underdog are you really pulling for in round one?
(CM) I don’t like them to get much further, but I’d like to see #10 Stanford get past #7 New Mexico and get a potential shot at #2 Kansas in the round of 32. Of the 6 PAC-12 teams that qualified, they are the least likely to get past the first round and beyond, but had respectable wins over UCLA, Oregon, and UConn earlier in the year before collapsing in the PAC-12, going just 10-8 in conference against some pretty good competition. They have plenty of height and length but lack the overall scoring threats to keep up with and get past the better offensive teams in the nation. An afterthought in the PAC-12 beating one of the most respected programs in the country would be great, and give PAC-12 tournament champ UCLA a better shot at the Final Four if they can get to the Sweet 16 and knock off Florida.
(RC) Stephen F. Austin spent the entire year unranked because of their weak strength of schedule and perceived lack of toughness in their conference. All of that aside, they still went 31-2 and went undefeated in conference play. Desmond Haymon and Jacob Parker can score against top competition (Haymon had 15 points and 8 rebounds against Texas earlier in the year) and while they live and die with the outside game, I think they will give VCU all they can handle and more. VCU is a similarly small team with a lot of reliance on freshman (8 total on roster), and I can see the Lumberjacks upsetting the Rams.
(GT) The underdog I am rooting for is Dayton over Ohio State. This is the 6-seed vs. 11-seed matchup that I think is most capable for an upset. Ohio State was shaky at the end of the season, losing to Penn State and Indiana in the closing weeks of the regular season. They are tournament proven and have senior leadership but I think the instate rivalry and Cinderella story we love so much will win out in this one. With only about 70 miles between them, the Dayton Flyers wanna prove it’s not all about the Buckeyes in Ohio.
(JH) My lowest ranked upset that I am going with is the N.C. State Wolfpack over St. Louis Billikens. T.J. Warren is an elite scorer at the college level. He can take over any game and he is coming off a great showing in the ACC tournament. He added to that in the play-in game against Xavier (25 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 assists). To add to the matchup, St. Louis doesn’t have much size. The Wolfpack were able to find their big men all night thanks to guard Tyler Lewis’ 8 assists with only 1 turnover.
I also like Iowa/Tennessee over Massachusetts. North Dakota State over Oklahoma is a temping upset as well.
(GI) Manhattan against Louisville. My reasoning? Manhattan head coach Steve Masiello comes from the Rick Pitino coaching tree. He plays Louisville's style at a mid-major. And they’ve seen huge growth since he's been there. I love Star Wars and I would love to see a whole Darth Vader claiming that he, once the student, is now the master. Masiello upsetting Pitino would be the student becoming the master.
- Which team that didn't make it do you feel got snubbed the most?
(CM) SMU, who was ranked #25 during the last week of the season, has to be the main snub of the tournament. The most likely reasoning is that Memphis, who is ranked a spot behind them in the AAC, did beat them in both teams’ final regular season game. Memphis also had a notable win over Louisville late in the season, but did split the season series against SMU, and went 0-2 against UConn, who SMU went 2-0 against. And both teams were knocked out in the second round of the AAC Tournament. All of the conference tiebreakers could not propel SMU to the tournament, however, as the Selection Committee chose to point the arrow at Memphis, and you have to assume that wins over SMU and Louisville in two of their last three games held a big influence in that decision.
(RC) Hard to say that Southern Methodist did not get the rough end of the stick. I guess being ranked in the Top 25 before the tournament does not count as much as it used to, so either the selection committee or the voters in the AP missed something somewhere. Green Bay also deserved a chance to dance, but the selection committee seemed to disagree there as well.
(GT) Everyone has been saying it since Sunday, but SMU really should be in this field. They were the 25th ranked team in the nation and a 23-9 overall record. The snub came because of a weak conference and a weak pre-season schedule but Larry Brown and his team should be dancing this week.
(JH) I honestly think that the NCAA committee got it right this year. I don’t see any team outside that got snubbed. I do think New Mexico received the toughest draw of the tourney. They are ranked a little low at 7. Conference rival San Diego State was ranked number 4. Considering the fact that they beat San Diego twice – including the conference title game – and only fell 1 game shy of them in conference standings, I feel that they should have received a 5 or 6 seed. Maybe place them in Oklahoma or Massachusetts’ spot.
(GI) The Washington Huskies (my alma mater). Just kidding. Not even as a huge homer could I make a case for my wayward Dawgs. In reality, I'm looking at Southern Methodist University. They were ranked at the end of the regular season. They were 55th in RPI. I'm not sure how a ranked team doesn't make it. That phenomenon hasn't happened in a decade.
- Which team would you be most shocked if they don't make it past round one?
(CM) None of the four top seeds appear unbeatable to me, but of the four I would be most surprised to see Wichita State go down in the round of 64. With everything they accomplished last year in making it to the Final Four and continuing that run by then going undefeated this year and becoming the first team since “Grandmama” Larry Johnson and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels to do so, they cannot afford a first round heart-breaker, and I would be legitimately shocked if the winner of Cal Poly/Texas Southern pulls it off, but stranger things have happened.
(RC) Assuming we are discounting number one seeds? I would be blown off my feet if UCLA failed to get past Tulsa. Kyle Anderson has been a force for the Bruins when he has been on the court, and the talent disparity between the two teams is overwhelming. If the Bruins can shut down James Woodard, Tulsa will not survive. It was the game plan for Wichita State and Green Bay earlier in the year when they both toppled Tulsa, and it will be the game plan for UCLA.
(GT) Well I don’t see any chance that any of the 1 seeds lose to a 16 seed so I will look a little harder. I don’t think there is any way that the number 8 seed Kentucky team loses to number 9 seeded Kansas State. Kentucky may be the most talented 8 seed to ever play in the NCAA Tournament. Their problem, they don’t play as a team. But with their incredible talent and a coach who has been there, they are automatic to win their first game and I have them beating 1-Seed Wichita State on Sunday as well.
(JH) Any number 1 seed would obviously be a surprise seeing as how that upset has never happened, ever. I would be shocked if any of the top-3 seeds go down in the first round this year.
(GI) Outside of the number one seeds, I might have to look at Michigan State. Sure, I don't have them winning it all but no one can doubt that they've gotten hot at the right time. Tom Izzo coaches students really well come tournament time and I would be shocked if Delaware pulls off the upset of the most favored #4 seed in recent memory.
- Which PAC12 team are you most impressed with and how far do you expect them to go?
(CM) Although Arizona had arguably the more impressive season and is undeniably higher ranked, I would say UCLA has impressed me the most and their 8 losses on the season don’t worry me as their play late in the season was very good despite a couple of stumbles against Oregon, Stanford, and Washington State; as they also trounced Oregon and Stanford before narrowly beating Arizona in the PAC-12 championship. I fully expect them to make it as far as the Sweet 16 for a showdown with top seeded Florida, and if they can get past that obstacle, I’d say there isn’t a team left that they don’t have the talent to beat in a win or go home situation.
(RC) While Arizona will outlast every other Pac-12 team, Arizona State has played amazingly all season long. The Sun Devils have two fantastic game changers in Jordan Bachynski and Jahii Carson, and they will put an end to the madness for Texas in Round One. I can see them reaching the Sweet Sixteen.
(GT) UCLA is the team that I am most impressed with but I think Arizona goes the farthest in the tournament, solely by the way that the matchups lineup. I am impressed by the way that UCLA beat Oregon and Arizona in the PAC12 Tournament. But Arizona has the softest quarter of the bracket, I see them as a Final Four team. I have UCLA losing to red-hot Florida in the Sweet Sixteen.
(JH) UCLA Bruins. Although, due to seeding, I think the Arizona Wildcats will make it further. UCLA played great during the Pac-12 tournament. My pick to win that tournament was Oregon, and I knew the UCLA game would be tough, but the Bruins played great and took home the title.
UCLA was placed in the toughest conference bracket in the South. VCU has been solid in year’s past in the tournament and they will likely play them in the second round. Then Florida, and if they were to get by Florida, they would play Syracuse, Kansas, or maybe even New Mexico. Arizona lands the weakest bracket, giving them a fairly easy road to the Final Four.
I have UCLA going out to Florida in the Sweet 16 and Arizona advancing to the Final Four to be put out by Wichita State.
(GI) If I can't cheer for my school, then I will give a shout out to the university my brother (and fellow OSN writer) attends, Arizona. I have to say that the storyline that the Wildcats were done when they lost Brandon Ashley for the season gave 'Zona a chip on their shoulder mentality that has served them well. I don't have them winning it all but I think we'll see them in the Elite Eight. Given my ability to bust my own bracket, this probably means that Arizona will be the first #1 to lose to a 16 seed…
There you have it. Check back with us next week for the rounds 1&2 recap, rounds 3-4 predictions, as well as discussion and debate on who is playing at a high level, who is disappointing, who has pulled off the shocking upsets, bracket busters, and if any team(s) has changed minds on who the tournament favorite(s) should have been.
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