The Seattle Mariners – What Kind Of Team Do They Have?

Jonah Keri, sports writer at ESPN and Grantland, as well as the author of The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First, in collaboration with FiveThirtyEight’s senior sports’ writer, Neil Paine, have written an interesting article on What’s the Best Way to Build a Major League Baseball Team? They examine two approaches that will sound familiar to fantasy baseball players everywhere: stars and scrubs v. a balanced team.

Keri’s and Paine’s conclusion is that it’s possible to build a team either way, and cited some examples over the years, but noted that extreme situations with maybe just one star and a collection of scrubs, like they found with the 2004 Diamondbacks, produced the worst results.  So, intrigued by this approach, and acknowledging that in the heartland, outside of Milwaukee where they wear their sunglasses at night, Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez are the probably the only Mariners a casual fan would know, I thought it might be fun to look at the Mariners’ lineup and see if we have balance or are a stars and scrubs team.

Like Keri and Paine, we’ll be looking at FanGraphs’ version of WAR (wins against replacement), which does a little better job of looking at defense and base running than the Baseball Prospectus counterpart.   Here’s a quick guide to how to think about WAR values.

Also, since WAR is a cumulative statistic, in order to isolate for just this season, we’re going to look at ZiPS projections.  ZiPS (R) were the projections coming into the season, while ZiPS (U) takes into account the numbers put up so far this season in updating projections.  ZiPS (U) can be a little noisy this early in the season because of the small sample size, so I’ll note both and let you decide if the difference is significant for either improvement or drop off for a given player.

Catcher – Mike Zunino

ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Mike Zunino as the number 6 prospect going into the 2012 draft and called him the best hitter in that year’s class.  He’s young and has moved up through the Mariners’ system quickly.  Coming into the season, ZiPS (R) projected him to play around 100 games and produce a WAR of 1.6.  His updated projections put him on a 120 game pace with a 2.1 WAR.  Having just turned 23, he’s already contributing like a solid starter (remember WAR is cumulative – more games would mean a higher WAR) and should be a good player going forward.

First Base – Justin Smoak

I know Mariners’ fans love Justin.  That spectacular catch to salvage the Fernando Rodney ninth inning meltdown against the Rangers over the weekend was exhilarating and there are flashes of pop, but the fact is Justin Smoak is not a viable every day major league first baseman.  Smoak currently ranks 17^th among 1B in MLB in WAR with some distinguished names behind him, like Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, and Prince Fielder who are sure to finish higher at the end of the season.  Last year Smoak finished 22^nd. Coming into the season, ZiPS (R) projected Smoak at 0.7 WAR.  His updated projection puts him at a 1.0 WAR, on the borderline between scrub and role player.

Second Base – Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano has three seasons with a WAR higher than 6, or MVP candidate type seasons.  In 2012, playing all 161 games with the Yankees, he accumulated a 7.7 WAR.  The projections for this year in Seattle reflect that Yankee Stadium is slightly more hitter friendly than Safeco (remember the fences were moved in last year, mitigating somewhat what was a huge park effect favoring pitching).  ZiPS (R) projected Cano at 3.8 WAR and has updated that projection to 4.2, an All Star caliber player.

Shortstop – Brad Miller

Brad Miller is another young player, who will turn 25 in October.  Coming into the season ZiPS (R) projected him to play 127 games and produce a 2.1 WAR.  Off to an extremely slow start, his updated projections have him playing 22 more games, but producing a slightly lower 2.0 WAR, borderline role player / solid starter.  I’m on record as projecting him over his career as more like a solid starter, especially on defense, but we are just looking at this year.

Third Base – Kyle Seager

At 26, Kyle Seager is proving to be a solid option at 3B.  He was projected as a 2.6 WAR player and even with the early struggles at the plate, the updated projections place him at a 3.1 WAR, mostly from expecting 30 more games of playing time from him.  Here the Mariners have a solid starter on the verge of becoming a good player at third.

Left Field – Dustin Ackley

I love the beard and I’ve noted in the past that when he played second he added more value to the team, but as an outfielder he’s barely a scrub.  A 0.5 WAR projection coming into the season hasn’t budged at all and still stands smack in the middle of scrubville.

Center Field – Abraham Almonte

Abraham Almonte still hasn’t played 50 games in the big leagues and is another under-25 Mariner in the everyday lineup, but remember we’re just looking at this year.  ZiPS (R) projected him before the season to play 106 games with a 0.5 WAR, mostly from his defense.  After 23 games played, he’s already generated 60% of that projection.  ZiPS (U) now has him playing 129 games and producing a 0.9 WAR, again mostly on defense.  Right now, Almonte is a scrub to role player who should develop into a solid starter.

Right Field – Michael Saunders

Michael Saunders completes the outfield trio of players with good defensive skills and little else.  All three Mariners’ OFers have sub .400 lifetime slugging percentages.  With two full seasons in the majors, Saunders is the veteran here with the largest sample size.  He projected at 1.2 WAR coming into the season and that is still the case with the updated projections.  Saunders is a role player, who along with Ackley, Almonte, and Smoak, probably shouldn’t be playing every day in the majors.

DH – Corey Hart

Keep in mind that the DH contributes no defensive value, so their WAR numbers are typically lower than everyday players.  Having said that, after missing all of the 2013 season, Corey Hart was projected to accumulate a negative WAR of -0.1.  Taking into account his numbers so far, he has “improved” to zero.

What Kind of Team Do We Have Here?

So, the Mariners have assembled on offense five scrub to role player level players, three role player to solid starter level players and one all-star player, the stars and scrubs model.  It’s safe to say, the Mariners need upgrades at first base, DH, and in the outfield to go along with getting their pitching healthy in order to contend.  It is worth noting that with full knowledge of this roster configuration FanGraphs projected a 78-84 2014 record for the Mariners. If Saunders, Ackley, Almonte, Smoak, and Hart were all upgraded (with another player or by their own improvement) to a solid starter, you could be looking at an 88 to 93 win team that could contend for the playoffs.