The Portland Trail Blazers have finally gotten back to the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Fourteen years ago, the Blazers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 3 games to 1 in a best of 5 series. It was during the 1999-00 season, and they were a number 3 seed coming into playoffs. They later went on to the Western Conference Finals and lost to the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Blazers lost by 5 points in game seven of that series versus the Los Angeles Lakers … a game in which they were outscored 13-31 in the fourth quarter. Since that disappointing defeat, the Blazers have had some ups and downs, but mostly downs. People even started calling them the Jail Blazers throughout the early 2000’s.
It took 14 years, 5 new head coaches , 6 first round exits, and 7 playoff-less seasons, but the Blazers are finally back on track.
With their hot start this year, the Blazers were starting to get considerations as a contender. That faded as they slipped down national power rankings and down to the 5th seed in the Western Conference.
Although those expectations never left Rip City, national media has once again taken notice after Portland sent the Houston Rockets home packing. Damian Lillard’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer in game 6 at the Moda Center capped off a 4-2 series win in dramatic fashion.
Next in line for the Blazers are the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs not only held the best record in the NBA this year, but are also the defending Western Conference champions. This isn’t going to be easy by any means.
I expect another hard fought series here, as every series has been in the west. This has been a great playoff season thus far. It has been a ton of fun to watch. I don’t expect that to change as Blazermania continues to rise.
The Matchup
The Blazers match up very evenly with the Spurs. They split the season series at 2-2. These teams know each other very well. This is going to be another great series.
I love this matchup for the Blazers for two reasons: Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. These two guys dominate the Spurs. Since drafting Lillard, the dynamic duo of him (26.3 PPG) and Aldridge (24.5 PPG) have been amongst the best scorers in the NBA versus the Spurs. On the reverse side of things, no Spurs player is nearly as dominant against the Blazers.
In that two year span, Manu Ginobili (16.3 PPG), Tony Parker (16.8 PPG), and Tim Duncan (17.2 PPG) are the Spurs top scorers against Portland. While looking these stats up, the most impressive part that stood out was the fact that Parker went from scoring 21 PPG a season ago to just 12.7 this season vs Portland.
Aldridge and Lillard have been great against the Spurs, and looking at what they were able to do in the first round, I think it will only get better for them this round.
I give Portland an edge when it comes to starters. I give San Antonio the edge on coaching and depth. Not to take any credit away from the phenomenal job that Terry Stotts continues to do this season. Gregg Popovich is great.
Depth wise, the Spurs have a ton of shooters that actually play. Where they do lack is front court depth. Early foul trouble for Duncan or Tiago Splitter could be costly. Although, the Blazers have struggled versus smaller lineups that are loaded with shooters … it will be interesting to see how that scenario plays out.
X-Factors
The X-Factors for me are two players from both teams: Portland’s Wesley Matthews and Mo Williams and San Antonio’s Manu Ginobili and Patty Mills. This season, both players are respectively averaging the third and fourth most points per game vs their opponent.
Patty has had some nice games this year, one of which was a 29 point outing at the Moda Center. He is averaging 14.5 PPG against Portland this year. Of any Spurs player, Ginobili is averaging the most PPG vs Portland this year with a 17.3 average. Matthews (18.8 PPG) and Williams (15 PPG) have been solid scoring against the Spurs as well. Portland will need both of these guys to continue that success in this playoff series.
I know Aldridge and Lillard will perform well. Duncan will also be his old reliable self. I’m sure Parker will improve on his 12.7 PPG vs Lillard and company. We all know these guys are going to come out and play well. This is the second round of the playoffs and these guys are All-Stars.
What it could come down to are these x-factors. What two players can produce more for their team, especially down the stretch of games? The two that can help their respective All-Star caliber players the most are the more likely team to get the victory.
Who Wins?
For the record, I did call Portland in 6. Didn’t happen exactly as I called it, but I called it. Here we go again…
You have Parker vs Lillard, Matthews vs Danny Green/Manu Ginobili, Nicolas Batum vs Kawhi Leonard, Aldridge vs Duncan, Splitter vs Robin Lopez … even Williams vs Mills. The matchups are evenly matched all the way down.
Portland seems to love to play the role of the underdog. For that reason, I’m all in for them once again. Very evenly matched, but the youth will prevail. You can say that they’re inexperienced, but this team has been battle tested all season. That Houston series was plenty of experience if you ask me.
- Portland won’t get outrebounded like they did against Houston.
- Covering Splitter will be a thousand times easier for Lopez than it was trying to guard Dwight Howard.
- Matthews will shut down anyone put in front of him … yeah James Harden put up 26.8 points a game against him, but how many shots per game did he take? The answer is 22.2 shots per game, and NO ONE on Popovich’s team is taking 22 shots in any game.
- Lillard leaped to superstardom with that 0.9 second shot. Oh, and he posted per game averages of 25.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists during the series.
- And if Aldridge can put together a few more of those dominant 40-point performances … like Vince Carter in the 2000 NBA Dunk Contest, it’s over!
Another round, another trip to Texas, and another 6 game series win for Portland.
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