Pound the rock. Pound it some more. Threaten to pass. I just described the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive philosophy — a true rarity in today’s pass-happy NFL.
Matched by only the NFC West-rival San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks are, without question, the NFL’s version of a throwback offense. With almost identical 2013 run-pass ratios: 54.79 percent run / 45.21 percent pass (Seattle) vs. 54.77 percent run / 45.23 percent pass (San Francisco) the 49ers and Seahawks lead the league in percentage of rushing attempts. Is it a coincidence that both teams are the best bets to once again duke it out for NFL supremacy in 2014?
As run-first teams, the Seahawks and 49ers are anomalies. Yet they continue to be successful because they run the ball so effectively. Still, both teams know they need to improve in the passing game. Their running identities — Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore — are about to sing their swan songs. If either team expects to continue at a championship level, they’ll need to improve their passing prowess.
Follow the money
For the Seahawks, there has been no shortage of investment in trying to improve their 26th-ranked passing attack. Percy Harvin was brought in with the very heavy price tag of $25 million in guaranteed money as part of a $67 million contract and three draft picks: first- and seventh round picks in 2013 and a third-round pick in 2014. The Seahawks’ top pick of the 2014 draft was wide receiver Paul Richardson, who will be expected to add some oomph to Seattle’s underwhelming, mediocre and veteran receiver corps.
Previously, the Seahawks imported Sidney Rice at great expense and invested high draft picks in the likes of Golden Tate and John Carlson. Rice has been brought back on a minimal veteran contract to try to continue his career with the Seahawks, while Tate and Carlson have moved on to other teams.
The Seahawks’ passing woes are not solely the responsibility of the receiver corps, however. The Seahawks continue to manage pass protection through a necessary patchwork of rotating offensive linemen due to a too-familiar spate of injuries. The Seahawks can hope to solidify their offensive line in 2014 with the return of the currently healthy key veterans Max Unger, Russell Okung and James Carpenter, and with the addition of second-round draft pick tackle Justin Britt.
The runners
If there is one thing the 2014 draft taught us, it’s this: The NFL running back position is being devalued. 2013 saw the lowest draft position ever for the first running back selected: 37th overall where the Cincinnati Bengals selected running back Giovani Bernard in the second round. He was the first running back to come off the board.
The position became even less attractive in 2014. This year, the running back position slid even further, reaching the 54th overall selection (second round) when the Tennessee Titans selected former Washington Huskies running back Bishop Sankey.
If this trend continues, the first running back in the 2015 draft won’t be selected until the third round.
Veteran running backs are finding the going even tougher. Arguably the two top-most performing running backs of the past three seasons, Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings and Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks, are almost certainly in their last seasons with their respective clubs. Both veterans are perilously close to age 30 and come with unsustainable salaries. Also looking at have-a-career-year-or-be-gone-next-season: Gore, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte and the newest New York Jet, Chris Johnson. It’s tough sledding for ball carriers.
Show me an NFL general manager that is OK with spending $10 million or so per year on a running back and I’ll show you a general manager who retired 10 years ago. The days of the high-salaried veteran bell cow running back are over. The lead runners are going to be the cheaper youngsters for the near future of the NFL.
According to Spotrac, Peterson will earn $12 million in 2014 with $4.8 million in dead money remaining on his contract. In 2015, the then 30-year-old Peterson will be owed $13 million with $2.4 million in dead money remaining on his contract, which means the Vikings will be obligated to cut him, eat the $2.4 million and spend elsewhere.
Lynch’s situation is similar to Peterson’s, yet his relatively more modest contract (extended after the 2012 season) reflects the already-declining financial outlook for running backs. Lynch is owed $5.5 million in salary and bonus for 2014, with a salary cap hit of $7 million and $3 million in dead money. In 2015, the then-29-year-old Lynch will be owed $7.5 million in salary and bonus with a cap hit of $9 million and only $1.5 million in dead money.
Say goodbye to Marshawn Lynch in this, his farewell season as a Seahawk.
Which brings us back to the Seahawks’ offensive emphasis. When there is no dominant running back in a league that emphasizes passing fireworks, how long can the Seahawks afford to be one of the league’s few run-first teams?
They can’t. The Seahawks need to become more effective at passing the football — and they know it. The Seahawks’ running back corps is facing major upheaval — and the running back answer is not yet apparent. As often happens with well-worn veteran running backs, Lynch is probably even money to hit the proverbial wall this season. The Seahawks need him to deliver one more good season. Simultaneously, the Seahawks must improve their passing game in preparation for a Lynch-less future.
While it looks like Robert Turbin and Christine Michael are the Seahawks’ future at running back, how potent does 3.9 yards per carry (Turbin) and 4.4 yards per carry on 18 career attempts (Michael) sound to you? They are, at least, young and cheap—which will put them ahead of Lynch in 2015.
For 2014, look for the Seahawks to look for every opportunity to transition successfully away from Lynch to a more diverse offensive attack.
The Seahawks cannot continue to run away from the rest of the NFL with the football tucked under Lynch’s arm. It’s time to pass the buck to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ pass-catchers.
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