Run Differential The Story So Far In The American League

Now that Memorial Day is in the rear view mirror and its OK to break out the white shoes and pants, most MLB teams have played around 50 games.  At 50 games, a little more of the signal starts to bleed through the noise, and we can get a sense of who are contenders and who are pretenders, heading into the summer.  While we could just look at teams’ records and the standings, it’s actually a little more informative to look at run differential, or how many runs has each team scored, compared to how many runs have they allowed.

A quick glance at the standings following the Memorial Day games shows that only 5 AL teams have positive run differentials, compared to 8 in the NL.  They are the Oakland A’s, the L.A. Angels, the Toronto Blue Jays, the Detroit Tigers, and the Seattle Mariners.  It’s no surprise that the A’s, Blue Jays, and Tigers are all in first place, given their run differential, but it might surprise you to see that after roughly a third of the season, the Mariners are in the thick of the wild card race when we just look at run differential, ahead of perennial AL East powers like the Yankees and Red Sox.

As I’ve pointed out on many occasions, the Mariners are staying in the race primarily with really good pitching and plus defense.  Of the teams in the AL with positive run differential, the Mariners have scored the fewest runs.  In fact, only the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals have scored fewer runs.  But, of those same AL teams with plus run differential, only the Oakland A’s have allowed fewer runs.  The Mariners rank 2^nd in the American League in runs allowed (keep in mind the schedule is uneven at this point and some teams have played more games and some have played fewer).

What does run differential tell us about the season so far and what can it hint to us going forward?

The Oakland A’s are very good.  They may just be the best team in baseball.  With the AL’s best record, the A’s are actually underperforming their expected win/loss record by about six games.

The Blue Jays may finally break the Yankees and Red Sox strangle hold on the AL East.  No other team in the division has a positive run differential and both the Yankees and the Orioles are outperforming their expected records.

In the Central, only the Tigers have, or should have, a winning record.  That should probably be the least interesting race this summer, as the Tigers should pull away.

And in the wild card race, I think it’s fair to say the Angels have a better team than the Mariners, but after that it’s a crap shoot.

The Rangers have run into too many injuries and I expect them to fade.  I don’t think the Yankees or the Orioles are all that good for a variety of reasons.  The Rays have also been unlucky with injuries.  Surely, the Red Sox aren’t this bad.  A wild card isn’t coming out of the Central.  I’m cautiously optimistic for the Mariners’ chances.

With the MLB draft coming up, June 5^th through June 7^th, and with that milestone the necessity to compensate former teams with a pick, it’ll be interesting to see if the Mariners try to sign another bat or two to bolster the offense and make a run for the post-season.