2013-14 was a successful season for the Portland Trail Blazers, as they recorded 54 wins, won their first playoff series in over a decade, and sent two players to the All-Star game for the first time since 1994. They still have some work to do to, however, as their lack of depth was exposed late in the season and became a major issue in their second round playoff series with San Antonio. With that in mind, we asked our Oregon Sports News roundtable crew to play GM, and make a case for how they would enhance the Blazers’ current lineup.
Writers contributing will be Casey Mabbott (CM), Ryan Chase (RC), Garrett Thornton (GT), and Jason Hartzog (JH).
1. The Blazers are a very young team but they lack depth and they don’t have a first or second round draft pick in 2014, and many of their second rounders in the coming years are tied up as a result of trades in 2011 and 2013. Is it worth trading a player and/or a future pick to get a pick in this year’s draft? If so, who would you look to deal and which player(s) would you be targeting in the draft?
(CM) Unless they’re guaranteed a top-five pick and a chance at Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid, I don’t see the point in moving next year’s first round pick or one of the Blazer’s best players. After the first five teams take their picks, the draft may get shallow in terms of players ready to start now, making it difficult to believe that the Blazers could find a player to replace one of their stars. If top-10 is the best they can do this year in a trade scenario, I’d rather they keep their picks and their starters and take their chances with free agency.
(RC) While it would be nice to get into one the deepest drafts in a long time, the Blazers simply do not have the assets to do so. Aldridge and Lillard obviously are unmovable, and with Lillard still developing as a passer, Nic Batum cannot be moved either. While Wesley Matthews is expendable, he is not going to move the meter on most teams, especially those in the top ten. I do not see any teams trading for McCollum or Leonard, leaving the Blazers with no options.
(GT) I am not infatuated with this draft. I really think the Blazers would be better served to use their resources and roster spots in free agency. There is enough youth on this team in Will Barton, CJ McCollum, Allen Crabbe, and Meyers Leonard. What the Blazers need is veteran leadership and scoring off the bench, not young and unproven second round talents. Now, knowing Paul Allen, I would not be surprised if he just bought a 2nd round pick to bring someone into camp and show the fans that he is doing what he can to bolster the roster.
(JH) The Blazers have a crop of young guys. This offseason should be focused more towards adding veteran depth, rather than more young pieces. Not having a pick in this year’s draft isn’t that bad considering the team is young enough as it is. That doesn’t mean that the Blazers won’t listen if the phone rings on draft night. This is a very talented draft class. Say a team calls about one of the Blazer young guys and a future draft pick, at that point if there is a guy available that can help now then you want to pull the trigger. Watch the draft, just in case.
2. The summer of 2014 will feature many big name starters hitting the free agent market. Which positions and specific players should the Blazers target to enhance their starting five, and who would they replace/send to the bench?
(CM) There is plenty of starting talent in the backcourt but the Blazers need to go after more size and strength in the post, and should pursue unrestricted free agents Pau Gasol, Marcin Gortat, and Spencer Hawes to come in as the new starting center. Gortat may be difficult as it’s assumed Washington will push hard to get him back, but he has only been a starter since 2010 and has low miles even at 30. Hawes has been in a similar situation, usually overlooked as a starting talent but has produced when given the chance, and is a Seattle native and played in college at UW and would be on a young playoff team just 3 hours south of home. Gasol is 33 and getting toward the end of his career, but his talent and efficiency is unquestioned when healthy and while I don’t want to see the team sign him to a big deal as injury could be a major concern, he’d be a great player to pair with Aldridge and Lopez and make this team really tough to handle in the post. Lopez plays with so much heart and determination but lacks strength and a reliable offensive game against elite forwards and centers, making any of the three an upgrade over him but he would be a more than valuable and reliable backup, which is his likely role on most teams in the league, if he’s willing to accept such a role here.
(RC) For the moment, the Blazers should keep their current starting five. Matthews is the weakest link, a weakness that at least ten other teams would happily slot into their shooting guard sport. Robin Lopez really proved himself in the playoffs this season, so the lineup looks fairly secure from my perspective.
(GT) There are some guys out there that I like but I am not a huge fan of messing with this starting lineup. I think if you can keep the starting five intact, it’s time to add to the bench. If I were General Manager Neil Olshey, my top two priorities in Free Agency is 1) backup point guard, 2) backup center. Other than that, a veteran presence would be nice.
(JH) Unless they were to trade one or more of their current starters, they won’t have the cap space to add any big name starters. I don’t see that happening. You’re not going to see a vast change like that in the starting rotation, especially after a 21-game improvement from a year ago. The goal this offseason will be to build around these guys, not find replacements for them.
3. Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum are under contract through the 2016 season, while LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, and Wesley Mathews are in contract years and are slated to be free agents in 2015. Are any of these players untradeable? Which players would you re-sign assuming it’s unrealistic the team can retain all five and afford to maintain proper depth behind them on the roster?
(CM) Lillard is the only player I would call untradeable. And as much as I would hate to see him on another roster, I’m also very much on the fence as far as signing Aldridge to a monster deal if he and his agent push for one. While his numbers and fan support more than justify his case, I have my doubts that he can continue producing at such a high level heading in to his 30’s, but there are exceptions. Being a cold executive, I’d focus on cap room on re-signing Batum and Lillard to long-term deals before they’re both in contract years next year, and in Aldridge’s case it’s a tough line to walk knowing when veteran players still have 5 high quality years left or if they are about to hit their decline just as they sign a major deal, so I’d ideally re-sign him to a back-loaded 5-year deal this year with a team option in year 4 with incentives for production and games started (if that’s even CBA-legal these days). If Lopez is willing to accept a deal that reflects a reserve salary and expectations, I’d be happy to keep him here, but I genuinely believe he is just not durable as a starter or deserving enough for a big deal, especially for a center who has had too many injury problems in his career, even if they haven’t majorly bothered him in Portland yet. I think you have to work on re-signing Aldridge, Matthews, and then Lopez in that order, and make sure to get someone comparable for them if you can’t work out deals, as you just cannot afford to let this team move backwards.
(RC) Aldridge and Lillard are the backbone of this team. Losing either one is unacceptable, especially in the NBA where two stars can carry a team to the playoffs. The weak links are Matthews and Lopez, and the Blazers will likely have to say goodbye to Wes in order to keep LaMarcus and Damian in Portland. Batum can be hot and cold, but at his best he brings more to the table than Matthews does.
(GT) As far as untradeable I would say the only untouchable player on the roster in Damian Lillard. He is one of the best young point guards in that league and still has a ton of growing to do. Looking at the number, I don’t know that it is unrealistic to think that the Blazers can reasonably re-sign the entire starting five. The one wild card in my opinion is Robin Lopez. He is on a very affordable contract right now and just had the best year of his career. When that happens, you never know what a big man will ask for on his next contract.
(JH) This is going to be Neil Olshey’s toughest task since taking over as the team’s General Manager. You have three starters that are essentially going to become free agents in 2015. You have a star point guard still on his rookie contract. And then you have Batum’s lofty contract as well. Finding a way to balance contracts for these guys while not giving up flexibility seems unrealistic. Getting them to buy into the whole “home town discount” idea is one option. Trading either Batum or Matthews might be the only other realistic option. For me, I have to see more aggressiveness from Batum this year or he might be the one to be traded. At around $11 million a year, the team needs him to be better. He’s been good, but not great.
4. Rumors are pouring out of Minnesota that Kevin Love wants to be traded or will walk away in 2015. Would you be willing to deal for him this year, and if so, who would you be willing to package to get him and would he be enough to bring a title to Portland?
(CM) I think you could convince Minnesota to take Batum for Love, but probably not player for player, and that’s where I lose interest. Portland does not have the assets or depth to deal more than one player, and it’s impossible to know if Aldridge would sign a deal way up north if he were exchanged instead of Batum, but my bet is on not. If paired with Lillard and the right center such as Gasol or Gortat and some better role players to help out, I could see Love leading Portland to a title. But I have my reservations about how realistic it is that Portland can get him here and convince him to sign a long term deal without giving up chunks of their team to do it.
(RC) If you ranked every non-Minnesota team from 1 to 29 from most likely to acquire Love to least likely, Portland would be between 26 and 29. The Blazers simply do not have the assets to acquire Love unless they either moved Aldridge or Lillard, which would not solve either team’s problems. Love would likely walk away from the Blazers after next season, and likely whomever Portland sent to Minnesota would do the same. There is no package Portland can send that would come anywhere close to what Minnesota is going to ask for Love. If Portland did manage to pull something, they would deplete their depth entirely and mortgage the future for a three man team that may not be able to get past Oklahoma City. It is not worth it at all.
(GT) Personally, I don’t think Love is a great fit in Portland. We already have a stretch-four All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. Priority number 1 needs to be re-signing Aldridge long-term. Bringing in Love would be too expensive for a Blazers team that is already poor in the draft pick department and doesn’t have any legitimate trade assets aside from the starting line-up. I pass on Love and let him go play in Los Angeles or wherever he ends up.
(JH) The only reason that I would trade for Love is if you knew Aldridge was not returning and Love agreed to a contract extension. Aldridge is the number 1 priority right now and any trade outside of an Aldridge/Love trade doesn’t make much sense. As of right now, I wouldn’t do that trade.
5. Depth was a major issue in the Blazers’ 2013-14 season and especially their playoff series with San Antonio. Which free agents or trade targets should the team look in to for a better bench in the next couple of years, and should re-signing Mo Williams be a priority after he opted out of his 2-year deal to seek a long term deal with the team?
(CM) First, I think Williams’ time in Portland is over, and it’s time to see what CJ McCollum can do, and I’d gladly see Steve Blake and/or Jerryd Bayless return to Portland as backups for either guard spot. The team needs to get bigger in the post, and they should pursue DeJuan Blair and Jordan Hill to help do just that, although both should garner plenty of suitors as they have proven they are reliable backups and have a willingness to battle for a starting spot, Glen Davis would be another option. The team needs strong rebounders with a big body and an average or better game in the post, and the willingness to play coming off the bench.
(RC) I am looking for a couple players that can give Portland what they need. The first is Al-Farouq Aminu formerly of the New Orleans Pelicans. He is a long defender who can score in bunches as a second-unit contributor, and would be a large upgrade over Dorell Wright as the backup small forward. The second is DeJuan Blair of the Dallas Mavericks. The backup center position for Portland was a nightmare all season long, with neither Joel Freeland nor Meyers Leonard being able to do much to stop top flight centers. Blair is not a shutdown defender, but he is a vast upgrade at the backup center position. Ideally, the Blazers would get Spencer Hawes of the Cleveland Cavaliers to pair with Lopez, but Hawes is going to ask for a lot of playing time wherever he winds up, and that may not mesh well with Lopez in Portland.
(GT) First off, Mo Williams is not in the future plans for the Blazers. A source inside the organization told me that the Blazers’ coaching staff noticed disconnect from the rest of the team towards the end of the year when he was dealing with injury issues. When you have a veteran like Williams coming off the bench, you count on him for leadership, not selfishness. A 3-year contract for a guy that isn’t loved within the organization is not a good contract.
The names I like on the free agent markup this summer is Avery Bradley, Shaun Livingston, Marcin Gortat, Vince Carter, Grevis Vasquez, Devin Harris, Jordan Hill. There are quite a few, but the Blazers need to be careful not to overspend and bring in a guy that will fit the culture and system.
(JH) Mo Williams was a big part of the Blazers success this season. Looking at the free agents available, there is one guy I would be willing to replace him with, and that’s Kirk Hinrich. If you are going to replace Williams, then you want another veteran. The Blazers are in need of some defensive help. They did get a lot better defensively, but having a point guard who is a little more defensive minded would help them out. Hinrich is also a capable scorer with a solid career 3-point percentage (.377). Hinrich’s career 3-point percentage is just below Williams’ (.385), but his assists-to-turnover ratio is better (2.6 assists per turnover for Kirk and 2.1 assists per turnover for Mo). With turnovers being an issue for Portland this season, I’ll take the slight dip in 3-point percentage for an improvement in turnovers.
Look for the Blazers to be opportunistic this offseason, as they were last offseason with the trade additions of Robin Lopez and Thomas Robinson. If someone is willing to get rid of a player to cut costs to sign a big name, the Blazers will be listening. I would like to see them do so in adding a veteran big man. Reggie Evans or Samuel Dalembert both come to mind. They will be on expiring contracts and can provide the Blazers with some defensive help and add to their stellar rebounding group.
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