Most of the talk this offseason will be about what the Portland Trail Blazers can do to improve through free agency and trades. The Blazers have a stable of young talent. While adding veteran talent is ideal to improve their playoff chances, the improvement of their young talent is just as important to their success going forward.
Let’s take a look at what the Blazers can improve on from within. They have 6 players entering just their third year in the league and 2 players entering their sophomore seasons. Over half of their roster is still very young in this league. I will solely focus on these young players.
Backcourt
It’s hard to believe that Damian Lillard is one of these young players. It should be illegal for him to get any better. The guy is a superstar. As an All-Star in just his second season, he competed in every event possible. That didn’t wear him down as he continued to show improvement as the season progressed. Even after a stellar rookie year, Lillard continued to grow. He hit the biggest shot of his career (so far) when he sent the Houston Rockets home with a game winning 3-pointer in game 6 of the first round. The thought of him getting any better is scary, but it’s almost a guarantee.
Like most of the Blazers second year players, Will Barton saw his minutes slip from his rookie season. He still improved across the board in per 36 minutes and per 100 possession stats (basketball-reference). He improved his scoring, shooting, rebounding, assists, and even lowered his turnovers. If you just look at his per game stats, you see around the same as the year before, but he was able to do a little more with less minutes. He was able to improve his efficiency while playing fewer minutes. And when his number was called in the playoffs, he came in and performed well. He could be ready to step into a full-time role in the rotation for 2014-15.
C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe saw very little time this season – McCollum saw more than Crabbe. The two rookies didn’t have the luxury of minutes that last year’s rookies had. The Blazers were an improved group as they pulled a quick turnaround from what looked like a rebuilding team. The Blazers competed for one of the best records in the Western Conference after a few key additions last offseason. The additions to the team gave Portland more depth, but decreased the chance of rotation minutes for their younger players.
For McCollum, the injury that he suffered last year during practice was a huge setback. After many expected him to crack the rotation during his rookie season, he was stuck sitting the bench waiting to heal. When he returned from the injury, he replaced a struggling Dorell Wright in the rotation. He showed glimpses of his scoring ability, but was unable to keep his spot in the rotation heading into playoffs. He has solid scoring potential – he can catch and shoot or create his own shot. He needs to improve on other elements of his game, primarily his point guard skills. As a combo guard, he needs to show his versatility. If he shows that he can handle the ball and get his teammates involved then he should get more of an opportunity next season.
As much as I’d like to see Crabbe get more of an opportunity to show his sweet stroke, I don’t see it happening unless Portland gets hit with injuries. Crabbe can shoot from distance and is a good rebounder for his position. He will take this next year to work on improving his all-around game, but you won’t see much of him in games.
Frontcourt
This is a huge summer for Meyers Leonard. After a summer battle for a rotation spot, Terry Stotts decided to go with Joel Freeland over Leonard. Freeland played well while in the rotation as Leonard struggled to get minutes. Unlike the rest of the 2012 Blazers rookies, Freeland saw more minutes in his second year. He showed an improvement in rebounding and shooting percentage in his second year. His defense was also a key to him beating out Leonard in the rotation – showing a toughness and willingness to defend that Leonard has lacked since entering the NBA.
Some players were able to take advantage of their lesser roles and still show improvements. Not Leonard. He was inserted into the lineup in place of Thomas Robinson to “help stretch the floor”, but it didn’t last long. His field goal shooting from outside 10 feet fell from last year’s numbers, his player efficiency rating dropped from 12.1 to 9.4, and his fouls per 36 minutes went up from 5 to 7.7 fouls per 36 minutes. By those metrics, he would foul out every night as a starting center.
Leonard has to get back in the rotation. He needs to see minutes on the floor to improve. He is the one guy I didn’t see much improvement from in his second year. Even Victor Claver, who saw the least amount of minutes of the 2012 rookies, showed improvements in multiple areas. Claver shot terribly, but he did improve on attacking the basket, finishing around the rim, rebounding, scoring more per 36 minutes and 100 possessions.
Leonard’s rebounding was better, and as a whole, the Blazers were a great rebounding team. Other than that, I see slips in every other category for Leonard. He won’t get any better riding the bench. He needs to improve decision making on both ends. I’d like to see less hesitation when shooting, making the right passes, better defensive rotation, and staying straight up without fouling. If he doesn’t crack the rotation this year, look for the Blazers to get the most out of him with a trade.
I didn’t see much of Thomas Robinson in his first year. What I did see, was growth throughout this year as a Blazer. I loved his game and the energy that he brought off the bench. He is a great rebounder. He did struggle at times, so his consistency needs to improve. He also needs to work on developing a jump shot. I saw improvements defensively and I think that will continue to get a little better in that area.
Biggest Impact Player Next Year
With the improvements that I saw this year, Barton and Robinson are the most likely candidates to have a much improved impact. Everyone knows Lillard is going to be great. But to improve, and go deeper in playoffs, the Blazers need to have an impact player off the bench.
Barton looked great when given an opportunity in the playoffs. In their only win against San Antonio, he had one of his best games of the year, scoring 17 points and pulling down 6 boards. One of the things that he’s really showed improvement on is his long-range shooting. He shot a horrific 14% from 3-point in his rookie season. He jumped up to a 30% shooter this year, and more impressively, shot 55% in the playoffs. The Blazers love to shoot threes, and if Barton can keep improving on his marksmanship, then he will find a decent role with this squad.
Robinson is the perfect backup to LaMarcus Aldridge. He is more of a banger as Aldridge is more of a finesse player who likes to shoot jumpers. It gives the team a different look. I think he could be for Portland what Brandon Bass was during his two years in Dallas. Bass averaged around 19 minutes a game with 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. I can see a similar stat line for Robinson playing behind Aldridge and Lopez. The only difference is that Robinson is a better rebounder (11.6 rebound per 36 minutes in his early career to Bass’s career line of 7.6).
I gave this some thought, and I think it’s time to come up with a name for Barton and Robinson. These two guys bring so much energy off the bench that they are deserving of one. The Mighty Ducks have the “Bash Brother” and the Golden State Warriors have the “Splash Brothers”. So far I have come up with “Thrill Brothers”. With Will “The Thrill” Barton already being a thing, I need something better. But until then, that’s what I’ll refer to them as. Or what if they sign a deal with Nike and become the Hyperflight Brothers?
Projected Improvement
Assuming, for the sake of the column, that Portland’s team remains intact and they re-sign Mo Williams, I see as much as a 5 game improvement. The Blazers had a great year, and they still have plenty of room to improve. A 5 game difference would have brought the Blazers in a second place tie with the Oklahoma City Thunder this year.
Obviously, their improvement varies on the development of certain players. For instance, if Leonard and McCollum both make huge jumps this season, then that can instantly turn them into a title contender. The likelihood of that happening is very rare, however. As long as they all can continue to develop, stay the course, find a way to utilize their bench more, and sustain similar health, I don’t see why they wouldn’t improve without making any drastic roster adjustments.
With that said, they were nowhere near ready to compete with the San Antonio Spurs. To get to that level, they need to elevate their success through trades and free agency. I can’t wait to see what Neil Olshey can pull off this offseason.
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