Nearing The Real Half-Way Point – What To Expect From The Seattle Mariners Going Forward

While the All-Star break is often referred to as “the half-way point,” this last week of June will see most MLB teams, including the Seattle Mariners, play their 81^st game, marking the real half way point in the 2014 season.  So far for the Mariners, this has been a season of progress, as the team is on pace to record its first winning season since 2009 and only the third winning season in the past decade.

As we head into summer and look forward to the second half, it is tempting to simply double what has happened so far to draw conclusions about individual players’ statistics and teams’ final win / loss records.  It’s easy to theorize that Kyle Seager is going to knock in 100 runs this year or King Felix is going to strike out 250 batters by season’s end.  It’s natural to ask the question, why are the Mariners paying $240 million for Robinson Cano to hit 8 HR a year?  And it’s tempting to assume that 40+ first half wins should translate to a win total in the mid 80’s.

Unfortunately, this is a highly simplified way of looking at a baseball season.

Dave Cameron, in an enlightening article on FanGraphs which has been much discussed in the geeky statosphere, argues that while it is indeed tempting to place too much emphasis on recent results, it is much more accurate to rely on the original projections for a season, as those projections are often based on years of data.  For instance, Robinson Cano’s career numbers should far outweigh what he’s done for half a season, so during the second half of the season his production should normalize closer to what he’s done in the past.  This rule holds true for both “hot” and “cold” players and extends out to “hot” and “cold” teams as well.

Using Zips(U), a measure that takes a player’s year-to-date stats and adds them to their projections going forward to arrive at season totals, I decided to look at the Mariners’ lineup and see what some final stat lines should look like, compare those to players on teams in the AL competing for the wild card, and finally look at the Mariners’ odds of recording that elusive winning season and possibly making the playoffs.

The Mariners have two All-Star caliber players, with projected WAR (wins above replacement) over 4 for the season.  As expected, they are Robinson Cano, with a Zips(U) WAR projection of 4.6, and Felix Hernandez, with a Zips(U) WAR projection of 7.7.

Cano’s final stat line projects out to .311/.374/.447, with 14 HR, 79 R, and 88 RBI.

Felix should end up with a 16-6 record, 2.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, with 244 K.

The fall off comes in the number of solid everyday players, defined as a WAR between 2-4.  Only four fit the bill:  Kyle Seager at 3B with a projected 3.6 WAR, Mike Zunino at C with a projected 2.4 WAR, Brad Miller at SS with a projected 2.0 WAR,  and Michael Saunders in the OF, also with a projected 2.0 WAR.  No one else projects out to even a 1.0 WAR.

From the rest of the pitching staff Hisashi Iwakuma projects out to a 2.6 WAR, while no one else earns higher than a 1.0 WAR.  (Note:  Zips(U) doesn’t have projections for Roenis Elias, but Steamer (U) puts him on pace for a 1.8 WAR).

Compare this to the Athletics who have three All-Star caliber players in Josh Donaldson (6.0 WAR), Yoenis Cespedes (4.0 WAR), and Brandon Moss (4.0 WAR), and five more everyday players with a 2.0 WAR or higher, coupled with three pitchers over 2.0.

Or, the Angels who have All-World OF Mike Trout at 9.9 WAR and six other everyday players over 2.0, and also three pitchers over 2.0.

It’s easy to see that the Mariners are in one tough division.  According to Zips(U) team projections, the Athletics should win 94.4 games and capture the best record in baseball.  The Angels should win 89 games, which would win the AL East, NL East, and NL Central.  Against that competition, the Mariners are still projected to win 83.6 games and have a 31.8% chance of capturing the second wild card spot.

With the Blue Jays projected to win the AL East with 86.1 wins and the Tigers projected to win the AL Central with 90.2 wins, the Mariners’ competition for the second wild card spot narrows down, realistically, to the Yankees (82.5 W), the Orioles (82.5 W), and the Royals (82.2 W).

The Yankees have fewer everyday players with a projected WAR of 2.0 or higher than the Mariners, with only four:  Jacoby Elsbury (3.5), Brett Gardner (3.3), Yangervs Solarte (2.2), and Brian McCann (2.2).  Masahiro Tanaka at 5.7 and Hiroki Kuroda at 2.8 are the Yankees only 2+ WAR pitchers.

The Royals have the same number of everyday players with projected WAR of 2.0 or higher, led by Alex Gordon at 7.0 and Salvador Perez at 4.7.  Their pitching depth is better than the Mariners’ with three 2.2+ starters, but without the ceiling that Felix brings at 7.7.

Finally, the Orioles, have somewhat better offensive talent than the Mariners with three 3.3+ WAR players, led by former Mariner Adam Jones at 4.7, and an additional three 2.2+ WAR players.  What the O’s don’t have is pitching.  Wei Yin Chen leads the staff with the only 2+ WAR at 2.4.

The Mariners will not play either the Yankees or the Royals again this season, but do have six games, home and away, with the Orioles in late July / early August.  The more encouraging short term news is that the next five opponents are currently under .500 (Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Twins, and White Sox).  Given how tight the wild card race should be in the AL, the next two and half weeks will go a long way towards determining if the projections on the Mariners are accurate.