The Major League Baseball trade deadline of Thursday, July 31st is coming up fast and the Seattle Mariners have been linked to several interesting, if not earthshaking, scenarios. While I’m not claiming to be breaking any new news here, I did want to evaluate some of the rumored trades and see what type of impact they might have on the Mariners going forward.
David Price
The Mariners, along with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers, are the most active teams in pursuit of Tampa Bay Rays ace pitcher, David Price.
So far this season, Price is 10-2 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 173 K in 155.2 innings. ZiPS (R), which projects the remainder of the season, assumes Price will go 6-3 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 83 K, while earning an additional 1.7 WAR.
Certainly, the addition of Price to the rotation, would give the Mariners the best starting rotation in the AL, if not all of baseball. Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, David Price, and Chris Young are all in the top 15 in the AL in ERA.
Given that the Rays received top prospects Mil Myers and Jake Odorizzi from the Kansas City Royals when they dealt James Shields in 2012, the Mariners would likely have to give up a top prospect, as well as a major league ready player to obtain Price. The Mariners have said that top prospect D.J. Peterson, the number 12 pick in the 2013 draft, is off limits, which probably makes this deal a nonstarter. It’s unlikely the Rays would take “just” Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin, and a lower level prospect for Price.
Additional impediments to a trade for Price are that the Rays, at 47-53, 8 games back of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, 6.5 back in the wild card, and with a Pythagorean 7.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, think they are still in it, and David Price is on record as saying he will not sign an extension with the Mariners.
While the fantasy team starting lineup sounds enticing, the Mariners, who rank 19th in runs, are in much greater need of a bat.
Marlon Byrd
The Philadelphia Phillies are sure to be sellers, with Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins heading the list. A much more reasonable, and, therefore, more moveable contract belongs to Marlon Byrd, who is owed the remainder of $8M this year, $8M in 2015, with a team vesting option for an additional $8M in 2016, when he will be 39.
Byrd’s lifetime .279/.334/.430 stat line is certainly an improvement over any corner outfielder currently on the Mariners roster and his right handed bat would help even out the left handed heavy lineup.
It’s been reported that the Phillies, in an effort to get younger quickly, would be willing to trade Byrd straight up for AA prospect, Gabriel “Gabby” Guerrero, who just happens to be the nephew of free swinging, future HOFer, Vladimir Guerrero.
On paper, in a win now scenario, this trade makes a lot of sense. The downside, however, is that Byrd has a no-trade clause in his contract and Seattle is on the list of places he can veto. Byrd has hinted that he would waive the no-trade if the Mariners would agree to pick up the vesting option for 2016.
Frankly, the prospect of paying $16M over two years to an aging outfielder isn’t all that appealing. I’d much rather see what Peterson, Guerrero, and this year’s top pick, Alex Jackson look like in 2016.
Ben Zobrist
Tampa Bay Rays Ben Zobrist has been mentioned as part of package deal with David Price and as a solo component of a trade to Seattle. Of all the relatively high profile players involved in Mariners trade rumors, I like Zobrist the best.
Over the course of his career, Zobrist has played every infield position except catcher and both corner outfield positions. He is incredibly versatile.
With a lifetime .354 OBP, he would immediately become the second highest OBP on the team, behind just Robinson Cano and his .358 lifetime average. The Mariners, who currently rank 27th in on base percentage, desperately need more runners on base. And, again, Zobrist’s .786 OPS and 117 OPS+ far outshine any current Mariner outfielder.
The contract is friendly, with a $7.5M team option for 2015 or a $500K buyout.
The Rays might be willing to take back an asset like Nick Franklin, who can play both SS and 2B and is currently blocked by Cano and either Brad Miller or higher upside prospect, Chris Taylor. Or they might opt for Taylor or Miller. Either way, the Mariners are in decent shape going forward in the middle infield, but can upgrade the outfield.
The obstacle to this trade is the same as the first one for Price – the Rays still think they are in the race. Peter Gammons reported recently that the Rays probably won’t make any moves until 48 hours before the deadline, if at all.
Some Wild Cards
Reportedly, some teams (mostly anonymous) have shown interest in both Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin.
A team showing interest in Ackley would most likely want to return him to 2B and see if a change of scenery helps reinvigorate what was once thought to be a promising career. Ackley might be the centerpiece of obtaining a minor upgrade in the outfield.
The Oakland A’s are among the “teams” showing interest in Nick Franklin. The thinking is that current A’s SS Jed Lowrie won’t be re-signed as he enters free agency next season. Franklin could then slot in at SS at the minimum salary for several years, as he isn’t eligible for arbitration until 2017.
A’s LHP Tommy Milone, who was sent down to AAA following the trade with the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hamel, has asked for a trade. Before being demoted, Milone was 6-3 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, and 61 K in 96.1 innings. Granted his 4.43 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is a little disturbing, but Safeco Field, which ranks 29th with a 0.869 park factor (1 is average) should be a friendly environment for Milone.
I really like a Franklin for Milone deal in lieu of any David Price deals with only the whole “never trade inside the division” thing possibly getting in the way. Or maybe, the Mariners can use the A’s as leverage to drive up the price on Franklin.
Finally, there is Cuban defector Rusney Castilio, who, if the Mariners could sign him, would cost a team nothing in terms of prospects or players. While Castilio probably doesn’t possess the power of countrymen Yoenis Cespedes or Jose Abreu, he has slugged over .500 in two of his seasons in the Cuban league. The questions are whether Castilio is signable for Seattle and could he slot right in to an MLB roster like Cespedes and Abreu or if he’d require some polishing in the minors.
Summary
I like that the Mariners are linked to so many of the current trade rumors. However, I’m a bit bothered by the front office’s focus on adding pitching when it’s clear the Mariners major weakness is with hitting. It is a little frustrating also that potential acquisitions like Price and Byrd are so quick to say they don’t want to come to Seattle, or if they are forced to, they won’t resign in Seattle.
Perhaps getting to the playoffs and making a decent showing can go a long way to changing the perception of Seattle as an undesirable destination. Get Jay-Z on that right away.
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