The Numbers Say Beast Mode Should Report To Camp

Friday saw the start of Seattle Seahawks training camp with the glaring absence of starting running back Marshawn Lynch, who is holding out, presumably, for more money or an extension.  While the sudden retirement of wide receiver Sidney Rice frees up some cap space, the Seahawks, so far, don’t seem inclined to move that savings into Lynch’s bank account.  So, the question persists, should they reward beast mode in the way they rewarded safety Earl Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman?

Currently, Lynch has the fifth highest base salary for a running back in the NFL for 2014 at $5M.  Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Arian Foster will all make $11.25M, $7.65M, $5.95M, and $5.75M, respectively.

It’s also worth noting that Peterson is only the 12^th highest paid player in the NFL behind six quarterbacks (Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Sam Bradford, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger), two defensive ends (Chris Long and Greg Hardy), two defensive tackles (Gerald McCoy and Ndaumikong Suh), and one wide receiver (Mike Wallace).  The second highest paid RB, McCoy, is 31^st in base salary, and only these two RB are in the top 63 salaries in the NFL.

So, commensurate with his position and pay grade, Lynch finished sixth in rushing (1,257 yards) last year behind McCoy (1,607), Forte (1,339), Jamaal Charles (1,287), who just renegotiated an extension with the Kansas City Chiefs, Alfred Morris (1,275), and Peterson (1,266).

While noted for his workload (Lynch carried the ball 301 times last year) at 4.2 yards per carry, Lynch ranked last of the top 7 rushers in the league.  McCoy had 5.1, Forte 4.6, Charles 5.0, Morris 4.6, Peterson 4.5, and Ryan Mathews 4.4.

As could be expected with the lower yards per carry, Lynch also averaged the fewest yards per game of the top 6 rushers with 78.6 and he was 7^th overall in the NFL, as DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys, who missed two games, pops up on the yards per game leaderboard.

The outliers, in terms of salary to production, are clearly Arian Foster, who missed half of last season with injuries, and Alfred Morris, who far out played his $555,775 rookie average salary.  At $5M per, Lynch seems to be paid about right for the market, though one could argue that Peterson at $11.25M is nowhere near more than double the value on the field.

There are those who would contend that Lynch’s value to the Seahawks is his durability.  In four years with Seattle, Lynch has missed one game back in 2011 and has carried the ball 1,066 times in the regular season.  But, at 28, conventional wisdom for running backs in general is that his best years are behind him.

The 301 carries Lynch recorded last year ranks only 209^th all-time for most carries in a season.  The 315 carries from 2012 ranks 156^th.  So, while his load may seem awesome by today’s standard, it is by no means historic.  Although, seldom does a RB string together three consecutive seasons of 300+ carries, which Lynch would be going for this season, as the average career for an NFL RB is only 3.11 years, the shortest of any position in the NFL.

It is also telling that there are only 6 running backs age 30 or over in the top 100 seasons for most carries:  Walter Payton at 31 with 381 carries, John Riggins at 34 with 375 carries, Curtis Martin at 31 with 371 carries, Tiki Barber at 30 with 357 carries, Corey Dillon at 30 with 345 carries, and Barry Sanders at 30 with 343 carries.

Several studies have concluded that elite NFL running backs begin what is usually a steep decline around age 28.  Lynch’s current contract is for his age 28 and age 29 seasons.

So, from the Seahawks perspective, it makes almost no economic sense to increase Lynch’s salary during the two years he’s currently under contract and it certainly makes little sense to extend him into his thirties.

The same can be said from Lynch’s perspective.  The career of an NFL running back is usually short. He’s already beat the average and the guys who defy the odds are the very elite, like Walter Payton or Barry Sanders.  The smart thing to do is get in camp and make your money now.