Are The Seattle Seahawks Running Short Of Running Backs?

With Marshawn Lynch a no-show and Christine Michael’s shoulder a no-go, did the Seattle Seahawks just go from a position of strength to a weakness?

The short answer, if you were to ask Head Coach Pete Carroll or General Manager John Schneider, is “no.” In fact, the Seahawks have made a handful of recent transactions. None of them included the running back position. If the Seahawks brass is worried, they’re certainly not acting like it.

True, they did bring in a trio of running backs a few days ago for a look-see. Former Arizona Cardinal William Powell, former Green Bay Packer Orwin Smith and former Dallas Cowboy Phillip Tanner had workouts with the Seahawks. None were given contracts. Clearly, the Seahawks are content to go with the hand they’re currently left with at the running back position.

This means a few things. First, they probably feel pretty confident that Lynch will give up his quest to have his contract renegotiated and attend training camp before the penalties for not showing up grow too great. Lynch can be fined $30,000 per day he misses, plus forfeits a major chunk of his 2012 signing bonus if he stays out much longer. Additionally, he faces stiff monetary penalties for missing preseason games.

Who’s gonna blink first?

The Seahawks hold all the leverage. Despite threats to retire, the safer bet is that Lynch returns to the Seahawks sooner, rather than later. The Seahawks do not have to impose the fines that they are contractually allowed to impose, so there is still some negotiation that could go on between the two camps to get Lynch amicably back into the fold.

Naturally, the Seahawks have expressed mild disappointment in Lynch’s decision to not attend training camp. They are wisely not making statements publicly that could enflame the situation. Additionally, they are talking up the two most likely replacements for Lynch should he continue to hold out: third-year running back Robert Turbin and second-year running back Christine Michael.

The other guys

The Seahawks may, indeed, have utmost confidence in the two heirs to Lynch’s throne. Statistically speaking, they have no reason to be. Neither has performed very impressively to date in their young careers. The Seahawks experience a precipitous drop-off in productivity whenever Lynch leaves the field.

Past production is no promise of future performance. In the case of Turbin and Michael, this is good news. It’s too soon to write off either running back, but another lackluster season of minimal productivity will not only scuttle the Seahawks’ season— if Lynch really is not coming back — but ruin the Seahawks’ offensive identity for the near future. How do you ground-and-pound with nobody that can pound?

Hope abounds for the speedy Michael. Unfortunately for the Seahawks’ best laid plans to wait out Lynch, Michael suffered a “not serious” shoulder injury. He missed a couple training camp practices to recover. For now, Seahawks fans can move away from the panic button. It is a situation that bears watching through the preseason.

If/when Lynch returns, he’s unlikely to see much preseason action. Michael and Turbin, on the other hand, will need to each make their cases in the fake games to either be “the guy,” in the event that Lynch stays away, or be the No. 1 backup. Both bring different skill sets to the table: Michael is more elusive and explosive; Turbin is more reliable as a blocker, pass-catcher and between-the-tackles plodder. Neither has the burst and presence of Lynch.

What about the fullbacks?

Not forgetting the fullbacks … although perhaps we should. The Seahawks received all of 15 yards rushing last season from their fullbacks. Clearly, they don’t bother handing the ball off to the beefy backfield blockers. Maybe that will change this season if they have to go into week one starting Turbin — and lamenting the missing Lynch and the banged-up Michael. In this worst-case scenario, Spencer Ware and Derrick Coleman may see double duty. Both were running backs in college.

For now, the Seahawks are content to make roster tweaks that do not include adding or subtracting running backs. While they didn’t bite on the three players brought in for tryouts, they certainly are keeping their contact info handy. Of course, there are other running backs out there and the Seahawks are not averse to trading for the right guy — like Lynch.

Campbell’s soup

For Lynch, reality has set in. Most likely driving his gambit for a renegotiated contract is the likelihood that he has peaked. He won’t admit it, nor will the Seahawks. He is paid among the top running backs now and his high usage, combined with his age, do not presage another year of statistics like he has produced over the past three seasons. Three seasons, of which, he carried the ball more than any other running back.

If there’s a player destined to hit the wall this year, it is the modern day Earl Campbell, Marshawn Lynch. If you have the stomach for it, check out Campbell’s rushing stats post age 28 (courtesy of ProFootballReference.com), for a glimpse at what Lynch is headed for. It ain’t pretty. Lynch is 28, by the way.

The Seahawks know the actuarial tables for older, workhorse running backs as well as Lynch does. Don’t count on them caving in to Lynch’s demands. Given the wear-and-tear on Lynch’s legs and the need to integrate Turbin and Michael, Lynch will be fortunate to break 1,000 yards this regular season. In light of that, the $5.5 million Lynch is scheduled to earn this season looks like no bargain for the Seahawks. Asking for more? Not gonna happen.

A Lynchless Seattle? It could happen sooner than you think. The Seahawks are not out of running backs … yet. One more unpredictable yet not entirely unlikely injury, however, and plan C could become the only choice they’ve got.