In the past several days, many quality pitchers have been mentioned in local and national media. With today being July 31st and teams getting their best-last-chance at a blockbuster trade, it stands to reason that arguably the most important position would be a big-time trade asset that people would want to talk about.
Many names keep popping up. Would a team turn down a trade for Clayton Kershaw, David Price, or Jon Lester? Probably not, not if the asking price was on market. Those guys are widely regarded as the best young names in the game. And that’s wrong.
Felix Hernandez, the Seattle Mariners’ fiery right hander, is a top-5 pitcher, and he’s only 28. He deserves to be in the conversation of the top-3, even the top in the game, but he’s usually left out. And he is getting attention (or a lack of) much in the same way a former hall of fame pitcher once did.
Perhaps a certain Cy Young Award race from 33 years ago will help us to settle that and realize what’s really important in a pitcher.
In 1981, Nolan Ryan pitched for Houston, had a 1.69 ERA, won 11 games, lost only 5, and logged 140 strikeouts. Appearing in 21 games, Ryan allowed 2 home runs, 68 walks, 34 runs, and 99 hits in 149 innings against 605 batters. He gave up 1 hit every 6 batters, and a home run every 302 batters.
By comparison, L.A. Dodgers rookie sensation Fernando Valenzuela had an ERA of 2.48, faced 150 more batters than Ryan, and pitched 40 more innings with 40 more strikeouts to show for it. Valenzuela allowed a hit once every 5 batters, gave up 11 home runs, and walked 61 batters, and with a 13-7 record, had a lower winning percentage than Ryan. Valenzuela allowed a home run every 70 batters.
Ryan had a WHIP of 1.121, Valenzuela a WHIP of 1.045. What that means, in essence, is that Valenzuela allowed less hits and walks per inning than Ryan, and that coupled with pitching more innings, probably won him the award. You might think this is/was a debatable topic. It wasn’t; Ryan didn’t even place second. He finished 4th in voting that year. Valenzuela won the Rookie of the Year award in 1981 as well, and topped Ryan, Tom Seaver, and Steve Carlton for the Cy Young Award.
What you may not have realized, is that Valenzuela went on to have a good career, but nothing even close to the legendary one Ryan was smack dab in the middle of in 1981.
The crazy part of the story, and one I would wager most aren’t aware of? Nolan Ryan never won a Cy Young Award. The closest he came was in 1973 when he was the runner-up behind AL winner Jim Palmer. And his numbers were not even close to how good they were in 1981.
Ryan only played in one World Series (1969 Amazing Mets), and never won a league MVP. Do you think less of him as a legendary pitcher? Don’t his two seasons being the ERA champion and the 11 times he was the league strikeout champion count for more? Don’t his 5,714 strikeouts in a career spanning 27 years from 1966 to 1993 mean more than any league award could?
Doesn’t a career ERA of 3.19 over 807 games (the same as 5 complete regular seasons), an average of 7 strikeouts per game, matter much more than the fact that the closest either league came to awarding him the MVP was in 1974, when he finished 14th in AL voting? And that his career is obviously more (and rightfully) celebrated than Valenzuela’s and Jeff Burroughs (AL MVP 1974)? That doesn’t mean that Valenzuela and Burroughs don’t deserve to have their respective accomplishments celebrated, it just means Ryan performed better over a longer stretch of time.
We’ll use that to segue back to great pitching and what it means to be a great pitcher today.
Think of a pitcher as a combination between the best quarterbacks and cornerbacks in the NFL. They are responsible for winning games with accuracy and strength in their throwing arm, wins and losses are widely credited to them personally even in a team sport, and they are singularly held responsible for points scored, unless another player makes a recorded error.
That’s a tough job. And like the best quarterbacks and cornerbacks, we’re so quick to point out the latest and greatest, and forget who the consistently great really are.
Felix Hernandez is in year 10 of his career and his numbers have only gotten better and better. Through 22 games this year, he holds an 11-2 record and a 1.99 ERA, with 173 strikeouts in 158 innings, and has allowed 43 runs and 29 walks with a WHIP of 0.89. Only Clayton Kershaw (2011 and 2013 NL Cy Young Award Winner) and Chris Sale have lower ERA’s (and Adam Wainwright) and WHIP’s.
But who is dominating the headlines?
Well, Kershaw, of course. And Tampa Bay’s David Price (the #30 lowest ERA and #11 lowest WHIP among MLB starting pitchers), and Boston’s Jon Lester (the #9 lowest ERA and #18 lowest WHIP), with both being extremely valuable trade assets and the MLB’s version of the trade deadline lapsing at midnight tonight.
Perhaps the memory of Cliff Lee is the reason Hernandez doesn’t get mentioned as a top pitcher. Perhaps it’s his contract (7 years, $175M) that keeps him from being a trade target. Perhaps it’s that Seattle is perceived as a small market team.
Perhaps all of those perceptions are wrong. Perhaps Randy Johnson is a better comparison than Kershaw or Lee.
I am not advocating for Hernandez to be traded, quite the opposite. I am advocating for the recognition he deserves. Were you aware that Kershaw has an identical 7 year contract? Did you know his is worth $40M more? Do you think he’s worth $40M more than Hernandez?
The Dodgers seem to. The Mariners might even also. Kershaw has accomplished a lot in 26 years. It’s arguable that Hernandez has accomplished just as much and perhaps more in 28 years. And yet the talking heads are always talking up Kershaw, watching his strike count, counting down the days until he wins back to back Cy Young Awards. But as shown in the case of Ryan, awards don’t lead to amazing careers, great players make that happen with or without the league spotlight. For those who would question that, see Tim Lincecum.
Whether he gets the honors he deserves or not, Felix will have his day.
History will remember him, even if the east coast won’t mention him.
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