The Seattle Seahawks stunned NFL followers by agreeing to restructure running back Marshawn Lynch’s 2014 contract to the tune of a reported $1.5 million increase. The new figure bandied about in the media states that Lynch will now get $6.5 million for his services in 2014.
In reality, he was scheduled to get $5 million in salary plus another $500,000 in roster bonuses. According to my quick calculations, that’s only $1 million in additional money, created by front-loading unlikely-to-be-earned incentives into current cash. As long as Lynch played he was going to get $5.5 million, so the real increase is not the reported $1.5 million.
Whatever the real amount is, it’s bad money spent by Seattle. Lynch is very unlikely to continue to produce at the level he previously has in Seattle. The Seahawks have clearly decided to reward Lynch for past production, not future performance.
There can be no question that Lynch was as responsible as any single Seahawks player for bringing home the NFL crown last year. However, his 2013 stats are highly unlikely to be duplicated in 2014. Lynch earned 1,257 yards on the ground in 2013. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry — lower than 21 other NFL ball carriers. Lynch’s career average per carry is 4.2. He only exceeded that average twice in his entire history, so it is safe to say last year’s average is his ceiling in this, his eighth NFL campaign.
Here are four reasons why Lynch won’t be worth the money in 2014:
Magic No. 8
It used to be common popular knowledge that age 30 is the death of running back productivity. A closer look at the statistics of past leading rushers shows that it starts a little earlier: age 28 or 29 is a more likely dividing line for rushing production. Lynch is 28.
Perhaps a more telling dividing line is running backs in their eighth NFL season.
The great Earl Campbell (a close stylistic comparison to Lynch) managed 1,301 yards at age 28. Which is great, but that was only his sixth NFL season. By the time he played his eighth year (like Lynch in 2014) he could only muster 643 yards. He was out of the NFL after that.
The great LaDainian Tomlinson saw his career trajectory fall off sharply after age 28. In his eighth-through-eleventh seasons, he averaged 3.75 YPC — well below his career average of 4.3.
Hitting a little closer to home, the great Shaun Alexander managed a mere 716 yards on 3.5 YPC in his eighth (and final season as a Seahawk). Alexander’s career YPC was 4.3. He played one more forgettable year in Washington.
High usage
Over the past three NFL seasons, Lynch toted the rock more times than any other NFL running back. That is outstanding production — if all you’re doing is looking backward. Looking ahead, it’s an ominous sign. That much wear-and-tear cannot be sustained indefinitely.
As for Lynch’s competition, other top-performing, high-usage NFL running backs that had nearly as many or more 2013 carries yielded significantly higher YPC stats: LeSean McCoy (314 carries, 5.1 YPC), Adrian Peterson (279 carries, 4.5 YPC), Matt Forte (289 carries, 4.6 YPC), Alfred Morris (276 carries, 4.6 YPC) and Ryan Matthews (285 carries, 4.4 YPC).
Lynch is already less efficient than these backs that come into 2014 with less wear-and-tear. Anyone taking bets on whether or not Lynch will get 301 carries again? I’ll take the under on that.
The other guys
Lynch is gone in 2015. He knows it makes little sense for the Seahawks to carry his expensive contract for an aging running back in the final year of his deal. Hence, his push for more money now. It will make far too much sense for the Seahawks to cut ties with Lynch after the 2014 season than it will to keep him. Unless, of course, the Beast decides to give back a not insignificant amount of millions to continue to play in Seattle.
That action won’t happen, boss.
Knowing this, the Seahawks have extra incentive to groom / work in Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Unless they fall flat on their faces in 2014, they are the future at running back for Seattle. Barring injury, both will see significant increases in playing time from their 2013 totals: 77 carries for Turbin and 18 carries for Michael.
In other words, they will eat into Lynch’s yardage totals like never before.
New rules emphasis
As pass-wacky the NFL has become, hold on to your hats. It’s about to become even pass-wackier. With the renewed emphasis on defensive holding and illegal contact, the NFL is about to seriously tilt the playing field ever more in favor of passing. Receivers will be given freer rein to run unencumbered through NFL secondaries. If they are bumped, grabbed or looked at funny after five yards, the zebras will litter the field with yellow flags.
Expect the temptation for offenses to get free yardage too great to pass up. NFL offensive coordinators are warning their quarterbacks to ice down their arms now. They’ll need to keep the swelling down after throw-throw-throwing on virtually every play.
Naturally, the NFL rushing game will suffer as a result. Unless your quarterback is proven incompetent (a circumstance Seahawks fans need not worry about) your offense is about to up its passing attempts. There is only one ball to go around per play, so expect rushing attempts to dip across the league — Lynch included.
Um, what?
Given these factors, 1000 Beast yards will be hard to come by in 2014. Still, the Seattle Seahawks chose to enhance Lynch’s 2014 take-home pay. Odds are they’ll get less bang for the buck this season than in any previous season — even if they had held to his previous, already top-five running back salary. Instead of holding the line or even penalizing a no-show, they rewarded a holdout who won’t equal previous production. NFL agents are smiling with glee and look forward to their next negotiations with the Seahawks.
File that under “unconventional thinking.”
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