Week one of the NFL season is upon us, starting Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the Green Bay Packers. Like a lot of you out there, I love football and I’ve been playing fantasy football for about fifteen years, but I also like to try to pick the outcomes.
This week my colleague Brad Stein asked me to come on his show, The Slant (you can listen to the podcast right here on OSN) to apply some analytics to predicting the winners and losers for this week. On the show, we could only get to a select few games, but this column covers (and will cover in the future) all the games for the week.
First a Disclaimer
In week one, I can’t really apply a lot of “analytics” to the games because I’m not so certain that historical data is really that significant. The fact that the San Francisco 49ers beat the Dallas Cowboys 28-27 on “The Catch” in 1982 has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on what’s going to happen in Arlington on Sunday.
And while that’s an extreme example, the same can be said of data from even a few years ago. So, until a few games are in the books this year, I’m going to try to use as current historical data as possible, usually not going back over two or three years.
Remember that the NFL is one of the more volatile sports in terms of results from year to year.
In 2012, the Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, and Houston Texans all made the playoffs. In 2013, they all had losing records.
In 2012, the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Diego Chargers all had losing seasons. In 2013, they all made the playoffs.
Some teams are going to make the same ascents and descents this year and it’s going to take a few weeks before it becomes clear who those teams are. In the meantime, here are my picks for week one.
Week One Picks
Green Bay at Seattle -5
In this rematch of the week three, replacement referee debacle from 2012, the Seahawks are favored by 5 at home.
Since 2012, the Seahawks are 9-4 in games where they are favored by 6 or less. The Seahawks are also 15-1 in the regular season at Century Link Field with Russell Wilson at QB. With a 5-1 record against the NFC North since 2012, including 2-0 against the Packers, I’m taking the Seahawks.
Pick – Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans -3 at Atlanta
The last four teams to be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks all lost their season opener. The last week one winning Hard Knocks team was the 2008 Dallas Cowboys. Look for the losing trend to continue for the Falcons.
New Orleans has won 6 of the last 8 games in Atlanta, but is only 4-4 against the spread. Since 2012, the Saints are 8-2 straight up when favored by fewer than 4 points, but are 6-4 against the spread.
Still, I like the Saints, but won’t be surprised if this game is a push.
Pick – New Orleans Saints
Minnesota at St. Louis -3.5
A lot of people are jumping off the Rams bandwagon following Sam Bradford’s season ending ACL injury. I’m not one of them.
Sam Bradford’s lifetime passer rating is 79.3, whereas Shaun Hill’s lifetime passer rating is 85.9, albeit with about 500 passing attempts to Bradford’s 1,000 or so. It’s not like the Rams lost Tom Brady. They lost Sam Bradford.
Last year the Rams were 3-0 in games where they were favored by 4 points or fewer. I’m taking the Rams.
Pick – St. Louis Rams
Cleveland at Pittsburgh -7
In the light of all the Johnny Manziel hype, its surprising that passing really wasn’t the Browns problem in 2012. Even with Brandon Wheeden and Jason Campbell at QB, the Browns ranked 11th in passing yards last year, so Brian Hoyer will do fine.
Where the Browns need to improve is rushing the football. Last year, with Willis McGahee grinding out a less than impressive 2.7 yards per carry, the Browns ranked 27th in rushing yards. I’m not certain Ben Tate is the answer though.
Last year the Steelers were 5-1 against the spread against AFC North opponents. And, the Steelers haven’t lost at home to the Browns since 2003. They aren’t going to lose this year either.
Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville at Philadelphia -10.5
Circle Sunday, October 19th on your calendar. On that day, the 0-6 Jaguars are at home against Cleveland and it will be the debut of Blake Bortles at QB for the Jags.
Teams favored by double digits usually don’t cover. The Eagles are 2-8 against the spread, dating back to 2009, when favored by 8 or more points.
Take the Jaguars to cover here.
Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland at NY Jets -5.5
Not so Bold Prediction – At some point during ESPN’s NFL Countdown, Chris Berman will make a reference to the 1968 Heidi Bowl. For those of you under 30, Google “Heidi Bowl.” It has its own Wikipedia page and, in the age of 24 hour sports, you’ll find the story mind boggling.
The NY Jets have won and covered against Oakland all three times they’ve played them at home, including 37-27 last year.
Pick – NY Jets
Cincinnati at Baltimore -1.5
Baltimore has won its last 4 games against the Bengals, but is 2-2 against the spread. With the spread so close, I’m taking the home team Ravens, reluctantly.
Pick – Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo at Chicago -6.5
Last year, the Bears were 5th in passing yardage, but the Bills were 4th in yards allowed through the air. That was primarily because the Bills were so bad against the rush, ranking 28th in yards allowed.
If you’ve got Matt Forte on your fantasy team, you’re in for a big day.
The over / under for this game is 48 points and I think the Bears may put that up by themselves. Take the Bears and bet the over.
Pick – Chicago Bears
Washington at Houston -2.5
The Texans were 12-4 and won their division in 2012, and then fell off a cliff to go 2-14 last year. Houston is a popular pick to do what the Kansas City Chiefs did last year, especially with a very easy schedule.
While it was pre-season, the Texans did beat the Broncos in week 3 by the score of 18-17.
In his first game since signing a record breaking $100 million dollar contract, J.J. Watt and his rookie teammate, Jadeveon Clowney should give RG III fits all day.
Pick – Houston Texans
Tennessee at Kansas City -4.5
The Chiefs went from 2-14 in 2012 to 11-5 in 2013. But, after a 9-0 start, the Chiefs finished up 2-5. Kansas City was 1-3 this pre-season. With a much harder schedule than last year, I definitely look for a regression back to 8 or 9 wins.
With only one win last year against teams with a winning record, Kansas City is lucky that the Titans aren’t likely to be a winning team this year.
Pick – Kansas City Chiefs
New England -5 at Miami
Don’t forget that the Miami Dolphins were 8-6 after 14 games last year and very much in the hunt for the playoffs before losing their last two to the Buffalo Bills and the NY Jets. The four game losing streak to New Orleans, Baltimore, Buffalo, and New England during the Richie Incognito / Jonathan Martin bullying scandal probably sunk their season. But, even with the skid, had the Dolphins just beaten the Bills once, they would have made the playoffs.
Miami beat New England 24-20 at home on December 15th. And, last year New England was just 2-4 against the spread in their own division.
I’m taking Miami to cover, and I’m not going to be surprised if they win outright.
Pick – Miami Dolphins
Carolina at Tampa Bay -1.5
Last year the Buccaneers had the fewest passing yards in the NFL. Is Josh McCown really an upgrade over Mike Glennon? Glennon’s lifetime passer rating is 83.9 while McCown’s is 77.5. Hmm.
Tampa was 2-2 against the spread last season when favored by 2 or fewer points, but one of those wins was against the Panthers.
Still, broken rib and all, I like Cam Newton and the Panthers in this game.
Pick – Carolina Panthers
San Francisco -4.5 at Dallas
Dallas opens the 2014 campaign at home shooting for its fourth straight 8-8 season. I’m not certain this is even a .500 team. Last year’s bad defense looks to be just as bad, if not worse.
The Cowboys went 0-4 in the pre-season, with Tony Romo seeing some decent playing time in week 3 when starters usually play a half. Still, the health of Romo’s back is going to be a major factor for the Cowboys offense.
I like San Francisco to win, but Dallas to cover. However, if this game is a 49er blow out, the Cowboys season could be a lot longer than it looks to be already.
Pick – Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis at Denver -7.5
Peyton Manning is looking to avenge last year’s 39-33 loss to his old team.
The over / under on this game is 55. Last year the two teams combined for 72. Take the over, but take the Colts to cover.
Pick – Indianapolis Colts
NY Giants at Detroit -5.5
Eli Manning’s passer rating has dropped three consecutive years, from 92.9 in 2012 to last year’s low of 69.4. Couple that with 27 interceptions last year, and Manning is clearly in decline. We’ll see if the Giants’ new west coast offense can revive Manning’s career.
In last year’s meeting, the Lions were favored by 11 and lost to the Giants 23-20. In games against the NFC East last season, the Lions were 2-2, but 1-3 against the spread.
I like the Lions to win, but the Giants to cover. But, like the Cowboys v. the 49ers, if the Giants lose big, this could be another long season in New York.
Pick – NY Giants
San Diego at Arizona -3
Last year the Chargers ranked 4th in the NFL in passing yards, thanks to the resurgence of Phillip Rivers and the emergence of Keenan Allen.
The heralded Cardinals defense ranked 1st in yards allowed on the ground, but were middle of the pack at 14th in passing yards allowed (sorry Patrick Peterson).
Arizona was 5-1 last year when favored by 4 or fewer points and 4-1-1 against the spread.
Pick – Arizona Cardinals
Caveat
Right up front, I fully expect the first four weeks of the season or so to be the most difficult to predict. Like I mentioned earlier, historical data has little impact on what’s happening on the field this season. There are just too many variables. Once we have about four weeks of data from this season, we’ll hopefully be able to make accurate picks.
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