Wow! Week one was brutal. My record against the spread last week was an abysmal 5-11. Of the early games on Sunday, four flipped on me in the last minutes, none more crushing than the 17 yard fumble recovery for a touchdown that put Philadelphia 17 ahead of Jacksonville with 1:23 to go in the game. The Jaguars had beaten the -10.5 spread all day, even while choking away a 17-0 first half lead.
On the positive side, I did correctly pick the Miami Dolphins not only to cover the -5 spread, but to beat the New England Patriots. The final score was 33-20 Dolphins.
I also suspect I’m not the only amateur prognosticator who fared poorly last week. If you had taken the underdog in every game of week one, you would have ended up 11-5. If you listened to me, you’re probably not reading this column, mostly because you’re currently homeless.
In my defense, I did throw in big disclaimers at both the beginning and the end of my column last week. The historical data that the picks were predicated on just isn’t all that significant. This week, there is advanced data to refer to, admittedly with tenuous significance after a single contest for each team.
Using DVOA to Make My Picks
My picks this week are informed by the proprietary statistic from Football Outsiders known as Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA for short. In a nutshell, DVOA looks at every play of every game in the NFL and compares the team’s performance to league average. As the goal is to look at team efficiency in scoring points, an overall DVOA that is positive is good and one that is negative is bad. The same is true when isolating DVOA for offense or special teams. On the other hand, defensive numbers that are negative are good (preventing scoring), while positive numbers are bad.
Football Outsiders also weights offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA based on strength of schedule in order to create a more even comparison. Preseason projections are also factored in as an attempt to balance out the small sample size in the early stages of the season.
For a more in depth explanation of DVOA here’s a link, http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
Week Two Picks
Pittsburgh at Baltimore -2.5
Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns 30-27 at home, but did not cover the -7 spread. The Baltimore Ravens, who were -1.5 point favorites at home, last week, lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 23-16.
Against Cleveland, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 363 yards, while the Ravens allowed Andy Dalton to connect for 301 yards. Coincidentally, Roethlisberger’s and Dalton’s EPA (expected points added) were very similar last year, 66.8 / 68.4 respectively. I expect a big day from Big Ben.
Pittsburgh ranks 12th in overall DVOA at 25.4%, while Baltimore ranks 21st at -25.5%
Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami at Buffalo – Even
In an early season battle for the top of the AFC East, Miami, who beat New England at home 33-20, travels to Buffalo. The Bills beat the Chicago Bears 23-20 in Chicago.
This matchup should be close, as the Bills rank 10th in DVOA at 27.2%, and the Dolphins rank 13th at 20.6$
Between last week’s opponents, New England and Chicago, the Bears rank higher in overall DVOA, so I’m going to give a slight edge to the Bills at home.
Pick – Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville at Washington -6
Both teams are 0-1, with Jacksonville losing 34-17 in Philadelphia and Washington losing 17-6 at Houston.
RGIII looked terrible against the Texans, fumbling twice, turning it over once, and cranking out a QBR of 29.7. While despite the loss for Jacksonville, their defensive DVOA ranks 7th with -23.2% (remember negative numbers are good on D).
I hope the Jaguars don’t burn me again, but I’m taking them to cover.
Pick – Jacksonville
Dallas at Tennessee -3.5
Last week I said that if Dallas didn’t cover the -5.5 at home against the 49ers, their season was going to be a lot longer than many had already projected. Well, they didn’t cover, losing to San Francisco 28-17.
Tony Romo looked bad, throwing three interceptions for a QBR of 19.9. The one bright spot for the Cowboys was DeMarco Murray who ran for 111 yards and a touchdown. But this week Dallas will be facing a Te3nnessee defense that held Kansas City Chiefs’ stud, Jamal Charles to just 19 yards.
Dallas ranks 30th in overall DVOA at -68.7%, compared to the Titans who rank 4th overall and 3rd on defense.
Pick – Tennessee
Arizona at NY Giants -2.5
Arizona beat San Diego at home 18-17 and their defense held Ryan Mathews to 40 yards on 12 carries. If you throw out his one 20 yard scamper, he averaged 1.8 yards per carry on the other 11 touches.
Eli Manning, with his two interceptions and 27.8 QBR, is still in contention for worst QB in the NFC East despite the valiant efforts of RGIII and Tony Romo to unseat him.
The Cardinals are actually the least efficient team to win in week one, ranking 15th in overall DVOA at 3.0%. But, compared to the Giants, who rank 31st overall at -78.3%, including ranking 31st in offense and 30th in defense, the red birds should cover this spread.
Pick – Arizona Cardinals
New England -3 at Minnesota
No New England Patriots team during the Brady / Belichick era has ever started a season 0-2. They do say there’s a first time for everything.
After one game, the Patriots rank 20th in overall DVOA at -23.5%, but they finished 2013 ranked 5th. On the other hand, the Vikings currently rank 2nd in overall DVOA at 56.8%, but they ended 2013 ranked 26th.
While the Rams, who the Vikings trounced opening week 34-6, won’t be confused with the Patriots (Hill? Brady? Hill? Brady? No. I’ll take Brady.), I think this Vikings team could be for real with the new Norv Turner offense and even a slightly improved defense over last year.
Pick – Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans -6 at Cleveland
Cleveland covered the -7 line in Pittsburgh by losing 30-27. New Orleans, who was favored, lost in an overtime shootout in Atlanta 37-34.
With an overall DVOA of -27.3% to rank 23rd, the Saints offense ranks 8th but the defense ranks dead last in the NFL. Surprisingly, even with the loss, the Browns rank 17th in overall DVOA at -1.6%, are actually higher than the Saints in offense at 6th and are slightly better on D at 27th.
In honor of the dog pound, I’m going to take the home dog here to cover.
Pick – Cleveland Browns
Atlanta at Cincinnati -4.5
This is the second game of the week between 1-0 teams (Miami v. Buffalo is the first).
Atlanta ranks 7th in overall DVOA at 33.6% and first in offense. Cincinnati ranks 11th at 26.5%. However, the Bengals are much closer to their pre-season projections of 8th than the Falcons are to theirs at 17th.
The Falcons may be all the way back to 2012 form, but I want to see it for a few more weeks.
Pick – Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit at Carolina -3
Here’s another matchup of undefeated teams. Detroit beat the NY Giants 35-14 at home on Monday night and Carolina beat Tampa Bay on the Buccaneers home field 20-14. If I had to guess, I’d say by mid-season, a win against Tampa will look good on a team’s resume whereas a win against the Giants won’t be as impressive.
Detroit is the third ranked team by overall DVOA at 53.3% and Carolina is the sixth ranked team with a 35.1% overall DVOA.
With the rankings so close, I’m going to go with the home team here.
Pick – Carolina Panthers
St. Louis at Tampa Bay -5.5
Pre-season I was high on the Rams. Even after Sam Bradford went down in the pre-season, I thought how much worse can Shaun Hill be than Sam Bradford? Well, Austin Davis ended up taking the majority of the snaps due to a Hill injury and he ended up with a 10 QBR with 1 interception and 4 sacks. The Rams looked bad.
After one contest, the Rams ranks last in offense, 29th in defense, and last in overall DVOA with -92.8%.
They can’t be that bad, as last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars finished last in DVOA at -36.2. I look for the Rams to get better, but maybe not this week with Hill still questionable.
Pick – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Seattle -5.5 at San Diego
Seattle dismantled the Green Bay Packers 36-16 at home Thursday night to kick off the season and their quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions. The Seahawks were actually more efficient on offense than they were on defense, making one wonder how good this team could be if Russell Wilson continues to mature and Percy Harvin stays healthy for an entire season.
San Diego lost in the desert to the Arizona Cardinals 18-17 and continued their storied run of mediocrity in September. To be fair, along with New Orleans and Green Bay, the Chargers have one of the largest discrepancies between their projected ranking and their current ranking. A larger sample size should show a regression to the mean.
However, Seattle ranks number one in overall DOVA at 61.0%. They probably aren’t that good, but they did lead the NFL last season with a 40.0% mark. If the line is reasonable, like this week, I don’t see myself picking against the Seahawks any time soon.
Pick – Seattle Seahawks
Houston -3 at Oakland
While Houston got a W in week one, it was at home against Washington, 17-6, another one of those games that probably won’t look that impressive by late October.
Oakland went on the road to the Meadowlands and played tough in a 19-14 loss to the NY Jets. (Rex Ryan and his stupid 2 point try cost me this game, but I’m not bitter).
Of all the winning teams in week one, the Texans had the worst efficiency with a 19th ranked DVOA of -19.7%. While the Raiders may not be able to move the ball, they are middle of the pack on defense, ranking 15th.
Again, I’m going to go with the home dog and take the Raiders.
Pick – Oakland Raiders
NY Jets at Green Bay -8
After playing the Seahawks on the road, the Green Bay Packers have the largest difference between their current 27th place ranking and their 5th place projections. Playing the Seahawks defense will do that to you.
Here’s the bad news for cheese heads, after one game, the Jets defense is actually ranked a tad higher than the Seahawks, 5th compared to 8th. The Jets overall DOVA ranks 8th with 29.8%.
I think the Packers will win this game, but I like the Jets to cover.
Pick – NY Jets
Kansas City at Denver -13
I just hate this line. My first instinct when I see double digits is to go with the underdog.
On the other hand, I’ve noted several times that the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs only beat one team with a winning record. On yet another hand, they only lost by 10 in Denver last year and by 7 in Kansas City.
But, there were six games in week one of this season decided by 13 or more, including Kansas City’s 16 point loss to the Titans.
Denver is currently ranked 9th in overall DVOA with 29.0%. They finished last season 2nd at 32.7%.
Against my better judgment I’m going to lay the points and take the Broncos.
Pick – Denver Broncos
Week Two Caveat
Once again, I’m going to point out that the sample size is as small as it can get at one game and even with all the efforts Football Outsiders takes to remove the noise from their calculations, there’s no better substitute for more sample, more games to get information.
Bold Prediction
If I go 5-11 again this week, my editor will probably pull me off this column. Go Home Dogs!!!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
