Two and a half points. I was 2½ points from going 11-5 in week 3. I had Cleveland +1.5 at home against the Ravens. The Ravens won 23-21. I had the Vikings covering 10.5 at New Orleans. They lost by 11, 20-9. And, I had the Broncos covering 4.5 at Seattle. When Peyton Manning took the ball down the field and scored in the last minute of regulation, I was positive I had this one. The Seahawks won by 6 in OT. A few breaks here and there and I’m sitting pretty.
As it is, I was .500 again last week at 8-8. In the games featured in the week 3 picks column, I was 4-4, with the huge loss in the Panthers / Steelers game being the biggest surprise. Overall, my record is 21-27, but dead even the last two weeks.
With bye weeks for Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis, Arizona, and Seattle, which includes 75% of the NFC West and arguably four of the best teams in the league, this week’s column will be a little shorter than usual.
As always, I’ll be relying on advanced metrics. For an explanation of some of these stats, like DVOA, see my week two column or visit Football Outsiders.
NY Giants at Washington -4
While a pretty solid statistical argument can be built to take Washington in this game, I’m going to take the home team Redskins just because it’s a Thursday night game and they are the home team. So far this season, the home team on Thursday nights is 3-0 by a combined margin of 108-36.
The NFL needs to consider killing this game, at least on its current weekly basis. The games are so lopsided probably because of the extra disadvantage of traveling on the short week for the road team. Just schedule a few Thursday games here and there with teams coming off a bye.
But in case you need further convincing, Washington ranks 9th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) at 17.0%, while the NY Giants rank 28th at -26.5%. Barring another special teams snafu (Washington ranks dead last in special team efficiency), I like the Redskins to win and cover.
Pick – Washington Redskins
Green Bay -1 at Chicago
I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Chicago is a better team than the Detroit team that beat Green Bay at home by 12 last week.
The Bears rank 5th in overall DVOA at 24.3%, compared to -0.1% and a number 17 ranking for the Packers. While Aaron Rodgers told Packers fans to relax this week, the 21st ranked offense just doesn’t look the same as past Packers teams.
I’m taking the home dog Bears to win.
Pick – Chicago Bears
Carolina at Baltimore -3
The Panthers and Ravens are very evenly matched statistically so far this season. Carolina ranks 15th in DVOA at 1.8%. Baltimore ranks 14th with 2.5%. Neither team excels in any one area, with both teams ranking in the middle of the pack on offense, defense, and special teams. And their rankings flip when weighted 55% for pre-season projections (the DAVE stat from Football Outsiders) – Panthers 17th and Ravens 18th.
At -3 for the home team, this game is essentially a toss-up. Based on how banged up the Panthers looked last week against the Steelers, I’m taking the Ravens.
Pick – Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia at San Francisco -5.5
Here’s another line I don’t get. Every year there’s one or two teams that inexplicably fall off a cliff, like Atlanta last year. The 49ers could be one of those teams this year, especially as the Harbaugh to Michigan rumors ramp up.
San Francisco currently ranks 18th in DVOA at -1.9%. Their offense is ok, ranking 10th. Their defense and special teams are mediocre at best, ranking 21st and 22nd respectively.
It’s hard to tell if Philadelphia, who only seems to play second halves, coming from behind in all three of their wins, is just lackadaisical or lucky or both. But, Philly ranks 8th in overall DVOA at 20.9%. And most of that efficiency comes, surprisingly, from a 7th ranked defense and a 3rd ranked special teams, instead of the heralded Chip Kelly offense, which only ranks 12th in efficiency.
I suppose the 49ers could win this game at home, but I’m taking the Eagles to not only cover, but to win outright.
Pick – Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans -3 at Dallas
Every season tends to turn on a few plays here and few plays there. There’s a lot of randomness to close games, so I get that. But still, the Saints are 7 points away from being 3-0 going into this Sunday night matchup with the Cowboys. Instead they are 1-2. The Cowboys had to come back late against a not good Rams team to prevent a 1-2 start.
New Orleans has the number one ranked offense in the league, bolstered by the number one rushing attack. The Cowboys, on the other hand, rank 24th in defensive efficiency – 26th against the run and 16th against the pass. I don’t see Dallas stopping New Orleans.
On the other hand, New Orleans ranks 31st in defense, so they probably won’t stop Dallas much either.
Overall, the Saints rank 13th in DVOA at 10.8%, but 8th when weighted for pre-season projections. Compare that to the Cowboys who rank 19th in DVOA with -2.1% and 20th in DAVE, and the stage is set for a who dat win in Arlington.
Pick – New Orleans Saints
New England -3.5 at Kansas City
This Monday night game feels like a trap. I just have an uneasy feeling about the Patriots.
New England’s numbers are pretty good, but they sure don’t pass the eye test. The Patriots lost in week one at Miami, a team who hasn’t looked that good since, beat Minnesota post Adrian Peterson child abuse revelation, and won ugly against Oakland.
In overall DVOA, the Pats rank 7th at 21.5%, mostly because of a number one ranked defense (but remember their opponents).
Kansas City ranks 27th in DVOA with -25.8%. And it’s a balanced 27th as the Chiefs rank 24th in offense and 28th in defense.
All the numbers suggest the Patriots should win, but I just don’t like it. Reluctantly, I’m taking New England.
Pick – New England Patriots
Hopefully, a few plays will go my way this week and yours. Good luck everyone and enjoy the games.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
