What a difference a week makes. Last week, we saw just two ranked teams fall, both in relatively unsurprising fashion. This week? Not so much. An astounding 11 ranked teams lost, eight of which fell at the hands of lower or unranked teams. Some, like Oregon and USC, lost in late agonizing fashion. Others, like Texas A&M, were simply overmatched. In the aftermath, we have an AP top 10 that features four new teams, including one (Arizona) that was unranked last week. How does that translate to my rankings? Let’s take a look.
If you need a reminder of how the rankings are calculated or what the numbers mean, you can find the explanations here.
The Rankings
- Auburn (100.00) [2] – Next week is going to be fantastic. Auburn will be traveling to play the biggest surprise team in the country, Mississippi State, in a battle between two of the best teams in the nation.
- Mississippi State (97.73) [1] – Mississippi State continues to claim the best season to date, but Auburn is right on their tail. These rankings aren’t designed to predict spreads, but right now the Dawgs project as six-point underdogs.
- Florida State (95.66) [6] – The Seminoles had their best game of the season, yet they still dropped two spots from last week’s rankings. That just shows how impressive Auburn and Mississippi State were on Saturday.
- Ole Miss (94.67) [3] – ESPN Gameday, the national spotlight and Alabama all came to Oxford on Saturday, yet the Rebels somehow came out unfazed, thanks to two late touchdowns. Next up are the Aggies, whom their in-state counterparts tore apart Saturday.
- Notre Dame (84.92) [7] – The Irishmen find themselves in a distant fifth place after a tough win against rival Stanford. They face an underachieving Tar Heels team before they travel to Tallahassee to play the Seminoles.
- Baylor (84.90) [11] – The Bears lead the nation in scoring differential but also own the lightest schedule in the top 25 by a wide margin; they have yet to play a team with a winning record.
- Alabama (81.06) [10] – Despite their loss, the Crimson Tide are still very much in control of their own destiny with bouts against Mississippi State and Auburn remaining. There’s no question that they will be in the playoff if they win out.
- Arizona (79.85) [4] – The rankings knew that the Wildcats were good, but there was no way to foresee them being this good. A win in Eugene rocketed them up 15 spots as they prepare to host USC.
- TCU (79.76) [5] – The Horned Frogs were another team to fill the upset role against a much higher-ranked conference foe. Unfortunately, Gary Patterson’s squad won’t be able to celebrate the victory long as they head to Waco to face the undefeated Bears of Baylor.
- Michigan State (77.40) [15] – Sparty had a very bipolar weekend. The Oregon loss severely hampered their strength of schedule, but the losses of all the teams in front of them helped pick up their spirits.
- Oklahoma (70.86) [16] – The loss to TCU will certainly sting a while, but Bob Stoops and his athletes can take solace in knowing they get to face a terrible Texas team in the Red River Showdown on Saturday.
- Oregon (69.57) [14] – The entire state of Oregon will continue to wonder how a gesture of respect (bowing) can warrant a season-altering penalty. All is not lost as they still have a strong shot at the playoffs in they win out.
- Texas A&M (67.47) [9] – The Aggies were thoroughly exposed on Saturday. They closed the gap at the end, but the game was never in doubt for Mississippi State.
- Georgia (63.76) [27] – After an easy win against Vandy, the Bulldogs head to Missouri to face a battle-tested Tigers squad.
- Ohio State (60.31) [25] – Ever since an upset to Virginia Tech in Week 2, the Buckeyes have scored opponents 168-52.
- UCLA (58.34) [13] – As if losing to Utah wasn’t bad enough, the Bruins have to get back on the horse and prepare for a visit to Eugene to face a Ducks team that has won the last five against UCLA.
- Oklahoma State (57.22) [30] – The Cowboys only loss has come at the hands of the Noles, yet they find themselves at 17 due to the second-lowest normalized scoring differential in the top 25.
- Kansas State (56.40) [24] – K-State will try to keep their conference title hopes alive as they attempt to deliver the second-straight loss to the Sooners.
- Arizona State (50.71) [23] – The Sun Devils return to the rankings a one-week hiatus thanks to a 46-yard Hail Mary to bring down the Trojans.
- Nebraska (50.65) [17] – Bo Pelini’s team attempted a furious comeback against the Spartans but fell a little short. Next up is a reborn Northwestern team.
- Georgia Tech (50.38) [12] – The Yellow Jackets make it into the rankings on the merit of a 5-0 record after they handled Miami (FL) at home. The Blue Devils are next on docket for the nation’s 12th-ranked rush offense.
- East Carolina (49.56) [37] – The Pirates continue to get credit, perhaps too much, for beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg; they have the lowest normalized scoring differential of top 39 teams.
- Missouri (44.95) [19] – The 4-1 Tigers will have the paws full (sorry I had to) with a visit by the Bulldogs on Saturday. A win would go a long way towards winning the SEC East.
- Marshall (43.86) [8] – Try as I might, I can’t deny a 5-0 team, even if they are in Conference USA. The Herd should be favored in each of their remaining contests.
- Utah (42.75) [22] – What’s better than beating a top-10 team on the road? Getting a week off to enjoy your victory.
Teams in the AP That Didn’t Make the Cut
Stanford was the only team in the AP to miss the cut. The Cardinal, who own two losses — albeit both at the hands of ranked teams — came in at 32nd. Their ranking was crippled by being 41st in the non-AP component.
Oregon Update
The Ducks 10-spot drop was discussed above. With UCLA and Stanford both losing this weekend, the Ducks remaining schedule took a decent hit. The Beavers, meanwhile, moved down one spot to 48th after an uninspiring five-point victory over the Buffaloes. They will have a week to rest up before they host newly-ranked Utah.
Other Notable Teams
Louisville (28), at 5-1, owns the highest winning percentage of the unranked teams … Their basketball rival, Kentucky, find themselves at a surprising 31st … BYU dropped to 38th after their lopsided loss to Utah State … Boise State (42) finds itself back atop the Mountain West after beating Nevada in an offensive shootout … Georgia Southern (50) leads the Sun Belt conference, whose members own an average ranking of 97th … Northern Illinois (56) leads the MAC, aka the nation’s worst conference … Vanderbilt (111) continues to be the worst team in the SEC (and the Power Five, for that matter) … but the worst of the worst (our Bottom Five) belongs to Miami (OH) (124), Kent State, Idaho, Troy and UMass (128).
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