Lessons Learned from Week Six

Even though I went 7-8 last week against the spread (2-2 in the column), I’m feeling pretty good about some developments.

First, I noticed last week when doing my research that the more efficient teams, as measured by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), were favored in 13 of the 15 contests, regardless of home or away. The only exceptions were the Cleveland Browns at home against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at home against the New York Giants. In the case of Cleveland and Philly, the less efficient team was favored, and they actually won, and won by large margins.

Second, if you were picking straight up last week and simply took the more efficient team by DVOA in every game, your record would have been 10-4-1. The losses would have been the aforementioned Steelers and Giants, as well as the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks.  The push comes in the tie between the Carolina Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals, where the Bengals were favored at home by a touchdown.

Third, even with the spread, if you had simply taken the more efficient team by DVOA, your record would have been 8-6-1. Where I got into trouble was in games where the absolute difference in efficiency ratings was single digits, say 5%, and the less efficient team actually had an edge on one side of the ball or the other.  The New England at Buffalo game comes to mind, where the Patriots had a slight edge in overall efficiency, but the home team Bills matched up well on defense to a relatively inefficient offense (at least at that point). I took the Bills and lost big time.

So, I’m beginning to believe that I can pretty accurately pick the winner of the game by DVOA. What I’m now concentrating on is finding out if the absolute difference between team efficiency can give us an idea of the margin.

Last week teams with an absolute difference in DVOA of over 10% were 7-2-1 straight up, but only 5-5-1 against the spread. Teams with absolute difference in DVOA under 10% were 3-2 overall, but 4-1 against the spread. So, I’m not sure there’s a correlation, yet.

This Week’s Picks

Again this week, I’ll just be looking at four games here as the NFC West plays itself in the Seattle at St. Louis game and San Francisco is playing on Sunday night in Denver. If you’d like to see all of my picks or pick against me, you can find me as Brian Hight’s OSN Picks in the Fans of the Seattle Seahawks (spread) group on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em.

Also, for a more in depth explanation of the advanced metrics I’m using, check out Football Outsiders.

Seattle (3-2) -7 at St. Louis (1-4)

The Seahawks are coming off 30-23 loss to the Dallas Cowboys at home, a game in which they looked out of synch. Even so, the Seahawks remain the 4^th most efficient team in the NFL with an overall DVOA of 26.9%. But, I wonder how much of their continued offensive efficiency ranking, 9^th in the league, comes from simply not having very many snaps against the Cowboys.

The Seahawks go into St. Louis against a Rams team that ranks 27^th in overall DVOA at -20.5%, 25^th on offense, 25^th on defense, and 24^th on special teams.

The absolute difference in efficiency between these two teams is 47.4%, so I’m pretty certain Seattle should win this game. It just comes down to the spread. I look for the Seahawks to bounce back from really four straight unimpressive games and show the league they are still for real. I’m taking the Seahawks.

Pick – Seattle Seahawks

Arizona (4-1) -7 at Oakland (0-5)

Carson Palmer’s return last week against Washington bodes well for the Cardinals who rank 26^th in efficiency on offense. Palmer completed 28/44 for 250 yards, 2 TD, and no interceptions. But, still it was against Washington. Fortunately for the Cardinals this week, they are playing Oakland.

Oakland ranks 29^th in overall efficiency with -25.8% DVOA, 28^th on offense, 27^th on defense, and 12^th on special teams.

Arizona is really good on defense, ranking 6^th in efficiency, and really good on special teams, ranking 9^th in efficiency. Their overall 19^th ranking with a -0.2% DVOA should continue to improve as the offense improves.

With an absolute difference in efficiency of 25.6%, the Cardinals should win this one. The difference is also enough that I’m going to take Arizona to cover.

Pick – Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco (4-2) at Denver (4-1) – 7

The Denver Broncos are the most efficient team in the NFL with a 38.7% overall DVOA. Peyton Manning’s offense ranks 1^st, just like last year, but the defense that ranked 15^th last year, currently ranks 2^nd. The only apparent weakness of the Broncos is on special teams where they rank 18^th.

Like the Cardinals with the return of Carson Palmer, the 49ers showed some signs of rounding in to form on offense in their 31-17 win over the Rams. But, just like we should pump the breaks a bit on Arizona after beating Washington, the same can be said with San Francisco after beating the Rams. The Rams ain’t the Broncos.

Still, the 49ers rank 15^th overall in DVOA at 5.8% largely on the strength of their 3^rd ranked defense. Any improvement to the 18^th ranked offense or 28^th ranked special teams could see the 49ers climb up the efficiency rankings. I just don’t see it happening this week.

The absolute difference in efficiency favors Denver by 32.9%. I’m taking the Broncos to win and cover on Sunday night.

Pick – Denver Broncos

Houston (3-3) at Pittsburgh (3-3) -3

This game should be fairly even given the matchups on either side of the ball. Houston has the 23^rd ranked offense, while Pittsburgh has the 23^rd ranked defense. Conversely, Pittsburgh has the 15^th ranked offense and Houston has the 15^th ranked defense. So, a crappy offense against a crappy defense and a mediocre offense against a mediocre defense.

The Steelers have the edge in overall efficiency, ranking 20^th with -1.5%, to the Texans’ 24^th ranked DVOA at -9.9%. The absolute difference of 8.4% is one of the lowest this week, but in order to be consistent, I’m taking the Steelers to win and cover at home on Monday night.

Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers

As always, these picks are meant to be fun and not a substitution for a good retirement plan. Enjoy the games this week.