Ridley’s College Football Rankings – Week Twelve

Week 12 of the 2014 college football season may go down as the day that Pandora’s Box was opened for the College Football Playoff Committee. By Alabama beating a previously undefeated – and top-ranked – Mississippi State team, they threw a wrench into the system. The Tide dominated the game much more than the final score of 25-20 would indicate. They carried a 19-0 lead late into the second quarter and led by 12 points until the final 15 seconds.

The win undoubtedly moves the Tide into the top four, possibly as high as two. The big question coming from the outcome is what to do with Mississippi State? Does Dan Mullen’s team stay in the top four, ahead of TCU, or do they replace Alabama in the five spot? I can’t predict what the committee will do, but I can tell you what the numbers say. To the rankings!

If you need a reminder of how the rankings are calculated or what the numbers mean, you can find the explanations here.

The Rankings

1. Alabama (9-1) (100.00) [1] – The Tide barely claim the top spot thanks to the best victory of any team in the top four. Auburn is the only obstacle between them and an SEC Championship berth.
2. Oregon (9-1) (99.09) [3] – The Ducks were just edged out of the top spot, but that gap will only grow. Colorado, Oregon State and the Pac-12 Championship (currently projected as USC) don’t compare to Auburn and the SEC East’s representative.
3. TCU (9-1) (98.41) [2] – Favored by 28, the Horned Frogs were nearly caught asleep at the wheel as they needed to score 17 of the final 20 points to edge out a pesky Jayhawks team.
4. Mississippi State (9-1) (97.61) [4] – Hail State remains in my top four and it’s not even that close. Wins over Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn are more than the one-loss teams (and FSU) below them can claim.
5. Ohio State (9-1) (95.73) [5]
6. Florida State (10-0) (95.71) [8] – The Buckeyes and Seminoles both had tough challenges on the road this week. Urban Meyer’s crew gets the ever-so-slight edge thanks to Minnesota added a little more credibility (as evidenced by the Playoff Committee ranking them 25^th).
7. Ole Miss (8-2) (94.74) [6] – The Tide’s victory over the Bulldogs reopened the Rebels’ slim chance of winning the SEC West. If they can beat Arkansas and Mississippi State and Auburn can somehow upset Alabama on the road, Ole Miss will win the division by virtue of head-to-head tiebreakers.
8. Baylor (8-1) (93.06) [9] – The Big 12 suffered the biggest fallout from the Tide upset. Not only was TCU moved to the brink of getting pushed out, but Baylor needed Alabama to lose to help clear their path to the top four.
9. Marshall (10-0) (89.99) [7] – That is not a misprint. Marshall (7) had a higher raw total than Florida State (8). The Thundering Herd’s schedule is easily the weakest in the top 25, but their quality of play is among the best. They lead the nation in scoring differential (+308) and are tied for fourth in normalized differential; The Seminoles are 17^th and 19^th, respectively.
10.  Georgia (8-2) (88.13) [10] – The Bulldogs continue to confound me. Two weeks after losing to the Gators by 17, they hold Auburn to their lowest point total in three years, when the same Bulldogs held the Tigers to seven points on this same weekend in 2011.
11.  Michigan State (8-2) (86.05) [12] – Sparty easily handled the Terrapins on Saturday, but let’s be honest, with Michigan State all but out of contention in the East and the Big Ten being awful, nobody cares.
12.  Auburn (7-3) (84.05) [11] – After the upset loss to the Aggies and the undressing by the Bulldogs, it’s obvious the wheels are starting to fall off for the Tigers’ once-promising season.
13.  UCLA (8-2) (83.98) [13] – Thanks to the Sun Devils falling apart in Corvallis, the Bruins are just two wins away from playing Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.
14.  Wisconsin (8-2) (82.89) [14] – I haven’t mentioned Melvin Gordon once all season, and that one is on me. The Wisconsin running back needed just three quarters and 25 carries to break LaDainian Tomlinson’s record for most rushing yards in a game.
15.  Kansas State (7-2) (82.19) [15] – The Wildcats took a welcomed breather after TCU ran them out of Fort Worth. They look to get back on track against a Mountaineers team that’s dropped their last two.
16.  Arizona State (8-2) (81.56) [16] – The Sun Devils’ control of the Pac-12 South went up in flames when they allowed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Oregon State.
17.  Arizona (8-2) (78.69) [18] – The Wildcats are 5-2 in conference play, but would need UCLA to beat USC, then fall to Stanford – in addition to winning out – to grab the South title.
18.  Georgia Tech (9-2) (78.44) [17] – On a weekend when the ACC underwhelmed as a whole, the Yellow Jackets thrived, beating Clemson by 22.
19.  Missouri (8-2) (76.23) [19] – The ship looks to be righting itself in Columbia. The Tigers are just two wins away from their second-straight SEC East crown.
20.  Nebraska (8-2) (74.83) [24] – Their loss to the Badgers not only made it extremely difficult to reach the Big Ten Championship, but significantly lowered the Big Ten’s chances of reaching the playoffs as well.
21.  Colorado State (9-1) (74.51) [21] – The story is still the same for the Rams: they not only will miss out on the Other Five’s BCS bid (to Marshall), but can’t even win their conference unless Boise State loses again.
22.  Oklahoma (7-3) (73.33) [25] – Beating Texas Tech by 12 is the equivalent of playing a five year-old to a draw in Go Fish.
23.  USC (7-3) (73.25) [23] – A crosstown trip to face the Bruins is all that stands between the Trojans and the Pac-12 South title.
24.  Boise State (8-2) (72.81) [20] – The Broncos join the rankings for the first time this year thanks to an interesting philosophy of falling inexplicably behind mediocre opponents just to make magnificent second-half comebacks.
25.  Utah (7-3) (72.64) [27] – Somehow, someway, the Utes are still alive for the Pac-12 South crown. They just need to win out, have UCLA beat USC then lose to Stanford and have Arizona State lose to Wazzou and Arizona.

AP Teams That Missed the Cut

Duke (28) was the lone team ranked in the AP to miss out on the rankings. The 25^th-ranked Blue Devils fell behind LSU and Texas A&M, as well as Boise State, who was the only non-AP team to make the rankings.

Oregon Teams Update

The Ducks attempt to claim the top spot was covered above. They may get there in the Playoff Committee rankings but will likely miss out in these if both Oregon and Alabama win out. The Beavers (81) snapped a four-game losing streak with their upset over the Sun Devils. The win not only boosted them five spots in the rankings, but also put them one win away from being bowl-eligible.

Other Notable Teams

LSU (26) and Texas A&M (27) just missed the rankings but gave the SEC eight teams in the top 27 … Notre Dame fell to 31^st after their loss to Northwestern … Memphis (32) leads an underwhelming American Athletic Conference … Bret Bielema’s first SEC win moved Arkansas up to 33^rd and gave them the dubious title of best 5-5 team in the country … Georgia Southern (39) lost badly to Navy but still sits atop the Sun Belt (now the nation’s worst conference) … Northern Illinois (44) leads the MAC … Kentucky’s drubbing by Tennessee dropped the Wildcats to 76^th … Vanderbilt (101) is still well-below them … and the Bottom Five for the week are: Kent State (124), Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Georgia State and SMU (128), who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by allowing two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including the game-winner with four seconds left to remain winless. Go ‘Stangs!