If you enjoyed the last couple of weeks in the wild, wild NFC West, get your popcorn ready, because things are about to go absolutely bonkers in the final quarter of 2014.
Consider this: Less than a month ago, Arizona was fresh off a win over Dallas, looked like a lock for the division crown, and probably the #1 seed in the NFC. They were 8-1 and riding the right arm of a red-hot Carson Palmer and a stifling defense. They still had some tough contests ahead, but they were playing better than anyone in the league. A month later, Palmer is on the IR, Andre Ellington’s status is up in the air with a hip injury (on top of a foot injury he’d already been playing through), Larry Fitzgerald is attempting to play through a sprained knee, and Tyrann Mathieu is likely out until the playoffs with a broken thumb. They’ve gone 1-2 since losing Palmer, and face a fierce, possibly impossible battle to maintain their status at the top.
Meanwhile, in Seattle, things are looking up and up and up. The defense is healthier (returning Bobby Wagner and Byron Maxwell, losing Brandon Mebane), playing better, and the running game is as good as ever. Since losing to Kansas City in week 11, the Seahawks have looked like a rejuvenated team, and have taken out division rivals Arizona and San Francisco with matching 19-3 victories.
With just two games separating the top three teams in the division, it really is anyone’s for the taking. The St. Louis Rams are four games back and are not mathematically eliminated, and despite how dominant they’ve been lately, they’ll need to overcome some pretty substantial odds to pull it off, but don’t count them out. With four weeks left and holding the tie-breakers over the Cardinals and 49ers, Seattle is the new favorite to take over the division and even to fight for home field advantage.
Whoever wins this thing is going to have earned it, but with a final month that consists of road games at Philadelphia and Arizona, and home games against San Francisco and St. Louis, no one is going to have a tougher go of it or deserve the title more than Seattle.
After going 1-3 in week 11, 2-1 in week 12, and sleeping through week 13, here are my week 14 picks:
Arizona VS Kansas City:
Here’s the cards for the Cards this week: they’ll be without their best QB, RB, WR, and FS. Not good signs, even if they are hosting the reeling Chiefs. KC gives up a ton of yards on the ground, but until their loss at Oakland, had kept all ball carriers out of the end zone, which is a trend they’ll probably restart against a RBBC Cardinals rushing attack. Even after losing Eric Berry for the season, the Chiefs #1 pass defense still held up at home against Denver last Sunday night, and will probably keep Drew Stanton and a limited offense in check, despite being on the road. This week will either be Bruce Arians’ finest victory, or we’ll see Andy Reid twist the knife in his side with plenty of Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis, and one of the finer pass rushes in the league. I don’t like the Chiefs against the elite teams in the league, but Arizona hasn’t deserved that label since losing Palmer. It will be close, but not close enough for the Cards to get a slim win. KC 24 – Arizona 21
Seattle @ Philadelphia:
If things go the Seahawks’ way this week, they’ll hold a division lead for the first time in months, with a half-game over Arizona. They really can’t afford a loss the rest of the way unless Arizona and SF collapse, but if they’re going to endure one, it needs to be on the road and out of the division. Philadelphia carved up the Dallas defense on Thanksgiving, and one has to wonder if Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo had a “Vice Versa (the coolest of the Freaky Friday-esque adaptations)” type experience and forgot to tell us.
It will be strength vs strength at Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday, as the best secondary in the league takes on possibly the fastest offense ever. Seattle finally buried some road demons on Thanksgiving, putting the 49ers in the only non-turkey induced coma that day, using brutal defense and offensive efficiency to run the host team out of their own denim-built stadium. It won’t be that easy this week, or will it? Sanchez is 3-1 since taking over for Nick Foles, but this will be his biggest test yet and will have plenty of pressure to fend off while trying to make good decisions in a hurry. In a matchup of the Legion Of Boom against Pete Carroll’s former college QB, I’ll take the good ol’ LOB. Seattle isn’t leading the league in takeaways this year, but I expect Sanchez to be in a particularly giving mood. Seattle 34 – Philadelphia 17
San Francisco @ Oakland:
Is this a preview of Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines in Oakland? Jon Gruden and his temper once roamed them, and the Raiders thrived under him in “Chucky’s” version of the West Coast offense (Spider 2 Y-Banana anyone?). Harbaugh is perhaps the best QB whisperer in the league, first grooming Andrew Luck at Stanford before reviving the career of Alex Smith upon his arrival in SF, then grooming Colin Kaepernick to take over for Smith before there was any reason to believe Smith would be ousted. Derek Carr could absolutely be his next protégé, but we’ll have to wait a few more weeks to see how that plays out, especially with an opening at Michigan, Harbaugh’s alma mater.
Here’s the honest truth: Oakland needs to keep losing if they’re going to compete for the top overall pick in the 2015 draft, and a potential gold mine of trade bait comparable to what transpired between St. Louis and Washington in 2012. On the flip side, with a month left and sitting technically 2.5 games back, San Francisco needs to win out if they’re going to have any shot at all of not only making the playoffs, let alone winning the division.
Oakland is tough to pass on but allows plenty of running yards, and doesn’t quite have the playmakers on offense to keep up in a shootout, which the 49ers don’t enter in to a lot of anyway. San Francisco prefers to open the offense with the running game, control the clock, and keep Kaepernick calm and build his confidence with cheap completions. There isn’t an offensive wealth on either side, but the offensive and defensive edges as well as coaching would absolutely go to SF.
If Latavius Murray can go for the Raiders and run like he did against the Chiefs, it could set a whole new standard for this game, but he still hasn’t cleared concussion protocol and isn’t a lock to start even if he does suit up. Unless there are some big changes before kickoff on Sunday, this game looks like it will be the 49ers to lose. SF 23 – Oakland 14
St. Louis @ Washington:
The Rams absolutely destroyed Oakland last week, nearly beat San Diego on the road two weeks ago, and pulled off the upset of the season over Denver three weeks ago. How will they fare this week? Your guess is as good as mine. Shaun Hill has breathed new life in to the passing attack, Tre Mason has claimed the started running back slot, and the defense is playing as well as any in the league. They’re the team no one wants to play, yet they cannot for the life of them put a string of wins together. Will that start this week in the nation’s capital? We can only hope.
It won’t exactly be a dual of future HOF QB’s out there on Sunday with Hill facing off against Colt McCoy (who was a not-sucking Kirk Cousins away from never seeing the field ever again, despite what will or won’t happen with RGIII), but this one has everything the casual fan needs to stay interested. Two decent passing games, two serviceable running backs, two versatile receiving corps, and a pass rush on either side that can get to the, uh, passer. Neither secondary is anything to write home about, but that could actually keep the scoring going, so we’ll keep the complaints to ourselves there.
I don’t expect a ton of fireworks in this one, and I can’t in complete honesty say either team is better than the other, but despite a late push both teams are more than likely going to finish at or near the bottom of their respective divisions, and are playing for pride at this point. So, may the least ashamed team, win. St. Louis 17 – Washington 10.
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