Brief Recap

Coming off a “bye” week that saw Oregon Sports News take a break for Thanksgiving, I’ll just briefly say that I continued to make the picks on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em, so you can verify the results, and I’ve gone one game under .500 for the past two weeks, getting eight correct in week twelve and six correct in week thirteen. I’m still hovering a few games under .500 for the season. But now it’s time to nail December.

This Week’s Picks

Covering the NFC West, Sunday night, and Monday night game, as usual, gives us six games to pick this week.

For those new to the column, I use the advanced metric of weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to gauge each team’s efficiency, a total point differential to determine how easily each team tends to win by, and QBR as a measure of the most important player on the field in a modern, offensive minded NFL, the quarterback to make my picks.

For more information on weighted DVOA, see Football Outsiders.

St. Louis (5-7) -2.5 at Washington (3-9)

The St. Louis Rams versus the Washington Professional Football Team is a story of two teams headed in entirely different directions. The once lowly Rams have gradually improved over the course of the season until they now rank 17^th in weighted DVOA with 1.8% and have the 10^th most efficient defense in the league. Washington, on the other hand, with its season long quarterback controversy, has sunk to 27^th in weighted DVOA at -22.9% and ranks 23^rd, 26^th, and 29^th in offense, defense, and special team efficiency.

In a relatively small sample size, Washington’s quarterback, Colt McCoy does hold a 62.9 to 48.4 QBR rating advantage over Shaun Hill, but that hasn’t exactly translated into consistent scoring, as Washington has been outscored by 74 compared to the Rams who have been outscored by 24.

While it may be tempting to go with the home underdog here (they were 3-1 last week), be aware that Washington is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, while the Rams are 3-3 ATS on the road.

I’m going with the St. Louis Rams.

Pick – St. Louis Rams

Kansas City (7-5) at Arizona (9-3) -0.5

Since this isn’t a half point per reception fantasy league, but the NFL, this game, for all intents and purposes, is a pick ‘em.  Both teams need a win here to halt two game losing streaks and remain in the playoff hunt.

The Arizona Cardinals have lost two road games in a row, at Seattle 19-3 and at the lowly 5-7 Atlanta Falcons 28-18. And, the Kansas City Chiefs, on consecutive weeks, have provided Oakland their only win of the season and then lost at home to AFC West leader Denver Broncos.

Even after their two losses, the Chiefs rank 6^th in weighted DVOA with 18%. The Cardinals, who’s record has been completely incongruous with their efficiency all season, has slipped to 18^th in weighted DVOA at -1.9%, bolstered primarily by the 5^th most efficient defense in the NFL.

Kansas City, in winning 7 games, has a +53 point differential, while Arizona, in winning 9, is +34.

Up until the Seattle game, Drew Stanton has been adequate at QB for the Cardinals with a 59.2 QBR, while everyone is familiar with the “no TDs to WRs” statistic for Alex Smith and his 48.7 QBR.

One encouraging statistic for Arizona is that they are 5-1 ATS at home this season. However, Kansas City is 4-2 ATS on the road.

I look for Arizona to continue their free fall. I’m taking Kansas City.

Pick – Kansas City Chiefs

San Francisco (7-5) -7.5 at Oakland (1-11)

With an efficiency advantage of 33.4%, I’m reasonably certain the San Francisco 49ers should defeat their bay area rival Oakland Raiders. What I’m less certain of is whether the 49ers can score enough points to cover the 7.5.

Over the last 6 games, San Francisco has scored more than 17 points only once, in the 27-24 OT victory at the New Orleans Saints, the worst defense in the league. But, the 49ers do have the 2^nd most efficient defense going up against the Raiders 30^th ranked offense, so a 17-6 type game may be in store.

Oakland’s -161 point differential explains their 1-11 record, while the 49ers -13 point differential makes it difficult to explain how they’ve gotten to 7-5.

Colin Kaepernick’s regression this season, capped off with a 52.7 QBR, still places him light years ahead of Derek Carr at 39.1.

Another statistic in San Francisco’s favor is that they are 4-2 ATS on the road, while Oakland is 2-4 ATS at home.

Unless Jim Harbaugh gets traded to the Raiders at halftime, I’m going with the 49ers.

Pick – San Francisco 49ers

Seattle (8-4) at Philadelphia (9-3) -1.5  

The Seattle Seahawks have seemingly righted the ship, winning 5 of their last 6, including big games against division rivals. And, while many may have expected the Philadelphia Eagles to stumble with Mark Sanchez at quarterback, they just keep on rolling, coming off a big win in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Philadelphia holds the slight efficiency advantage by 3.6% as they rank 5^th in weighted DVOA with 20.0% to Seattle’s 7^th place ranking of 16.4%. The Seahawks are better on offense (7^th to 15^th), slightly better on defense (6^th to 8^th), but are much worse on special teams (18^th) with Philadelphia having the best unit in football. And, a closely matched game like this one may come down to a blocked punt or a kick return or a missed field goal.

The teams are very similar in point differential, with Seattle at +77 and Philly at +90.

And, as far as QBR goes, the Sanchize is right there with Russell Wilson 58.8 to 59.

This game may just come down to where it is being played. In Seattle or on a neutral field, I’m going with the Seahawks, but with the Eagles being 5-1 ATS at home this season and the ‘Hawks being 2-4 ATS on the road, I’m taking the Philadelphia Eagles.

Pick – Philadelphia Eagles

New England (9-3) -3.5 at San Diego (8-4)

The New England Patriots saw their 7 game winning streak come to an end at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers, but even so, they are the 2^nd most efficient team with a weighted DVOA of 31.1%, giving them a 28.4% advantage over the San Diego Chargers, who rank 16^th at 2.7%.

While Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers match up favorably in QBR for the season (78.3 to 78.1), they are clearly in different places as we head into December. While Brady struggled early, Rivers was brilliant. But, lately it’s been the opposite. Since the infamous loss at Kansas City on September 29^th, Brady has thrown 24 TD with only 4 interceptions, while Rivers has thrown 1 or fewer TD in four of the last five games and a QBR under 30 in two of the last five.

The Patriots offense has been clicking on all cylinders, putting up a +125 point differential, whereas the Chargers have struggled at times to a +30 point differential.

However, New England is 3-3 ATS on the road this year, but San Diego has lost or failed to cover its last 3 home games to go 3-3 ATS at home for the season.

I expect Brady and the Patriots to resume their winning ways on Sunday Night Football with a win and a cover in San Diego.

Pick – New England Patriots

Atlanta (5-7) at Green Bay (9-3) -11.5

While conventional wisdom says stay away from double digit spreads unless you’re teasing them with another game, I have no problem taking the Green Bay Packers and the points against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau on Monday Night Football.

The Falcons have the least efficient defense in the NFL and the Packers have the most efficient offense in the NFL. This is an equation that equals a ton of points for the Pack.

In overall efficiency, the Packers hold a 32.1% advantage. The cheese heads also enjoy a 121 point differential advantage over the Falcons (+113 to – 8). And, Aaron Rodgers is nearing deity level at quarterback with an 86.4 QBR, compared to the simply human 66.4 rating of Matt Ryan.

If you needed further convincing, Green Bay is 5-1 ATS at home, while Atlanta is 1-5 ATS on the road. I’m taking the Packers.

Pick – Green Bay Packers

Wrap Up

With only four weeks of NFL football left, quite a few games have playoff implications this week. If the Seattle and San Francisco games go the way I’ve picked, both teams will be 8-5 and on a collision course to a week 15 showdown that could be for the wildcard, could be for the division.

Other games of note this week include Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -3.5 and Baltimore at Miami -2.5, so buckle up and get ready for the weekend.