Well boys and girls, unless you are one of this country’s fine service members pumped up for the Armed Forces Classic, we have made it through another fantastic college football regular season. The season saw its share of upsets (Ole Miss over Alabama, Arizona over Oregon), near Cinderella runs (Mississippi State, Marshall) and plain old choke jobs (I’m looking at you, Georgia) before culminating on Championship Weekend this Saturday.
Alabama took care of Missouri to the surprise of no one; the Ducks avenged their lone loss in dominating fashion against the Wildcats on Friday; Florida State squeaked by for yet another win and both Big 12 schools (TCU and Baylor) handled their business with ease. The biggest surprise of the Saturday – and the one that reverberated most on Sunday – was the demolition of the Badgers at the hands of the Buckeyes. Ohio State walked into the game with their third-string quarterback as four-point underdogs and walked out with inarguably the most impressive win of season, having undressed Wisconsin to the tune of 59-0. The committee was so impressed with the win that they bumped Urban Meyer’s team ahead of TCU for the final playoff spot.
With the playoff committee’s decision providing a talking point for radio shows and water coolers alike, I have changed the format for this week’s rankings. I have ditched the team-by-team analysis (if you want to call it that) and will go over each of the top six teams’ resumes in order to educate the readers so that they own their coworkers and family members when the inevitable debate happens. But first, here is how the top 25 wrapped up. (For those of you wondering, the Navy-Army game will change Ohio State’s final ranking total – 96.41 – but not nearly enough for it to change the rankings.)
If you need a reminder of how the rankings are calculated or what the numbers mean, you can find the explanations here.
The Rankings
- Alabama (12-1) (100.00) [1]
- Oregon (12-1) (98.02) [2]
- Ohio State (12-1) (96.41) [3]
- TCU (11-1) (94.44) [4]
- Baylor (11-1) (92.92) [5]
- Florida State (13-0) (92.43) [6]
- Mississippi State (10-2) (88.60) [7]
- Ole Miss (9-3) (87.32) [8]
- Michigan State (10-2) (85.82) [10]
- Georgia (9-3) (80.83) [11]
- Georgia Tech (10-3) (80.08) [14]
- Marshall (12-1) (79.70) [9]
- Arizona (10-3) (78.91) [16]
- Kansas State (9-3) (78.09) [17]
- Wisconsin (10-3) (77.18) [13]
- Auburn (8-4) (76.15) [15]
- Boise State (11-2) (76.08) [12]
- UCLA (9-3) (73.80) [18]
- Missouri (10-3) (73.80) [19]
- Arizona State (9-3) (73.75) [21]
- Clemson (9-3) (71.86) [22]
- LSU (8-4) (70.88) [20]
- Louisville (9-3) (69.76) [24]
- USC (8-4) (68.50) [23]
- Nebraska (9-3) (67.18) [26]
Alabama and Oregon
Let’s be honest. These two don’t really need any explanation. They were one and two, respectively, in both my rankings and that of the playoff committee. The Ducks easily won the Pac-12 Championship (the nation’s second-best conference) and finished the season fourth in point differential while Alabama won a stacked SEC West. Even for those who loathe the conference, there is no denying the depth and quality the West had this season.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ inclusion in the playoffs is the one that seems to draw the most ire. Just five weeks ago, they sat at 14th, the lowest of all one-loss schools not named Duke. The schedule then picked up for the Buckeyes and after three quality wins, they found themselves in the playoffs, where they belong.
There’s no debate that the Buckeyes have the worst loss of all the contenders (35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech) but there is little in common between the team that played that day and the team currently out there now. Since that loss, the Buckeyes have reeled off 11-straight wins (second-best in the nation) by an average score of 48-20. Against teams that have been ranked by the committee, the average score was 46-20 (all played away from the ‘Shoe). Their +313 scoring differential was third-best in the nation and while their opponents may have lacked national ranking, the .554 winning percentage of their foes was the sixth-highest for teams in the top 25.
Ohio State may not have a schedule lined with ranked teams, but their depth and recent hot-streak are more than enough to justify a playoff bid.
TCU
The Horned Frogs are the team that should feel the most wronged. They dropped three spots over the weekend despite winning their game 55-3. Granted, the victory came over 2-10 Iowa State, but the margin of victory was still 12 points greater than Florida State’s largest win. It was the Horned Frogs third victory by at least 50 points – their second in conference play – and a big reason TCU led the nation in scoring differential (+318) despite only playing 12 games. The only other teams to cross the +300 mark needed a championship game to do so.
Where TCU’s resume loses steam is when you look deeper into the Big 12. Bob Bowlsby’s conference finished fourth in my conference rankings behind the SEC, Pac 12 and ACC. Of their 10 teams, three finished 99th or lower in my rankings, including Iowa State, which was the worst Power Five team in the nation, according to my rankings (And it’s not really that close. Wake Forest was next, eight spots ahead of the Cyclones.). This explains why the nation’s leader in scoring margin dropped to ninth in normalized point differential.
Still, TCU’s body of work cannot be overlooked. Besides being the nation’s second-highest scoring offense, they defeated four teams that were ranked at one point by the committee (an five by the AP), two more than Florida State. Their 23-point victory over Minnesota was more than the Gophers’ other three losses combined.
Finally, the Horned Frogs loss is the most justifiable of any team in contention. Losing by three at Baylor (on a last-second field goal, no less) is hardly anything to hang one’s head over. Had this game been played in Fort Worth, or even on a neutral field, there is a lot of evidence to support that TCU would win, possibly handily.
TCU is one of the four best teams in the country. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t have a conference championship game to prove it.
Baylor
The Bears entire candidacy is based on their win over TCU. If you take away that win, you’re looking at a team whose out-of-conference schedule included SMU (one win), Northwestern State (FCS) and Buffalo. The Bears passed TCU with their 11-point win over Kansas State on Saturday, even though TCU beat the same Wildcats by 21 just a month prior.
That being said, Baylor was near the top of the nation in scoring differential (+296), was sixth in normalized differential and defeated three teams that were ranked in Week 15, including the previously-mentioned Horned Frogs. That win over TCU is the best victory (not to be confused with performance) out of anybody in contention not named Alabama.
The Bears resume falls short based on their 14-point loss to West Virginia, which is likely only better than Ohio State’s loss. And with the close nature of their game against TCU, there’s still uncertainty that Baylor is actually the better team. So despite a win over the Horned Frogs, TCU gets the nod based on better all-around performance.
Florida State
If I have to sum up the Seminoles season this year in one word, it would be “unimpressive.” Jimbo Fisher’s team continually failed to wow me or my rankings, amassing a staggering seven wins by seven points or less; four of which came against unranked opponents. The last four games alone featured wins by four, three, five and two points. And their +153 scoring differential is 19th, below four-loss Oklahoma and five-loss Louisiana Tech.
What the Seminoles do have going for them is their record. At 13-0, they are not only ACC Champions but also the only undefeated team in the FBS. While this is certainly impressive and deserves credit, there is no reason to believe that the five teams above couldn’t have done the same thing with the Seminoles’ schedule.
It is completely understandable and justifiable to put FSU in the playoffs on the basis of being a Power Five conference champion and being undefeated. Both are surefire ways to get included. But the committee was tasked with selecting the best four teams, and in Florida State’s case, the numbers say they failed.
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