With just two weeks to go in the 2014 regular season, this division is coming down the wire. Arizona holds a 1 game lead in the standings over Seattle, with a head-to-head matchup coming this Sunday in Arizona that could decide the division. Week 17 features in-house games for all four division-mates, and this one could be tricky to predict. San Francisco is having trouble beating anyone, St. Louis is beating everyone except Arizona, and Seattle is beating everyone, except St. Louis.
With both the Rams and 49ers mathematically eliminated from the postseason, it boils down to which team of the Cardinals or Seahawks truly wants it the most. Arizona has already secured a playoff spot, but the division is very much up for grabs between the teams split by a hair at the top.
If Seattle wins this week, they’ll control their own destiny in week 17, but would need some very generous charity if they lose to the Rams. If Seattle loses to Arizona this week, Arizona would clinch the division and Seattle would be playing for their playoff lives in week 17. Either way, this already insane division is about to be completely wild down the stretch.
Seattle vs Arizona
This is the one you’ve all been waiting for. Arizona, at 11-3, holds the division lead, but just by a single thread. Already down Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, and Andre Ellington, the Cardinals must now look to Ryan Lindley of all people to lead the offense. For all of the trust Bruce Arians and Larry Fitzgerald are showing Lindley publicly, I don’t like his chances against the Seattle secondary, and his career seven interceptions vs zero touchdowns do not elicit a ton of trust from where I sit. Seattle, at 10-4, has been surging for the last four weeks, holding their opponents to less than seven points per game. While they have only played one of the top offenses over that span, the Cardinals have been going more and more conservative as the injuries pile up, which plays right in to the defense’s hands. Stanton had some success against Seattle, but I expect even less out of Lindley. What I do expect is to see the Cardinals’ defense swarming, and trying to keep the score within reach, and not let Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson dictate the outcome. Usually with such a tight contest and playoff positioning on the line, I would give the edge to the home team, and even with the “Any Given Sunday” or “Jeff Hostetler” rules being applied, I do think the Cardinals will play better than last time, but I still like the Seahawks to win this one, then close out the division next week at home against the Rams. Seattle 24 – Arizona 14.
San Francisco vs San Diego
Both teams are struggling right now, but the 49ers just need this one a bit more. I don’t particularly like Jim Harbaugh or Philip Rivers, but one of them has to win and I expect San Francisco to end their skid this week, even if it is Alfonso Smith lining up in the now decimated backfield. If Harbaugh has any chance of staying put, he has to win out, but I don’t like his chances on the road in Arizona next week with the Cardinals playing to get the first round bye Seattle stole from their grasp (blunt foreshadowing). Harbaugh is one heck of a motivator, but it’s hard to get guys that don’t like you to play hard for you. The sad fact is that there have been a long history of very successful coaches that rub people the wrong way, and they forget to treat owners and executives differently or better than they treat their players. Owners usually want to be treated like they own the place, and I sense Harbaugh has long forgotten to thank and be friendly to the family that signs his checks. The 49ers defense has lost a step or two since finding their footing under Harbaugh four years ago, and the running game is not its once dominant self, either. I think the team that can control the clock better will win this one, and that edge goes to San Francisco, who will probably regress to a ball control offense that once helped them thrive. Their current spread-ish offense is doing nothing but spreading them too thin, and they simply don’t have the playmakers to make it work. Pound the rock, frustrate Rivers (all too easy), and win one final game at home before next week’s debacle finishes the season, and Harbaugh’s future in town along with it. San Francisco 13 – San Diego 10
St. Louis vs New York Giants
The Giants will make a trip to St. Louis this week that they’ll wish they could have back. The Rams defense is playing as well or better than anyone, and their offense is just good enough to squeak by on most days. While Odell Beckham Jr. will put up anywhere from 50-500 receiving yards and at least one touchdown reception you’ll want to tell your grandkids about, it won’t be enough against a violent Rams front seven that will be looking to hospitalize Eli Manning all afternoon. Both teams have nothing left but pride to play for, but I get the impression the Rams are just a little more proud these days. A mostly absent running game and no real weapons other than Beckham to speak of, Manning will be throwing picks or running for his life, and either is fine to the suddenly sack-happy St. Louis seven. On the flip side, the Giants just don’t have the defensive star power to shut down any offense, just ask Jacksonville. Against two absent passing games the last two weeks, this game could be a rude awakening, especially if Jared Cook can get going, as the Giants are extremely vulnerable trying to cover the better tight ends. With Jeff Fischer’s team on the rise and Tom Coughlin’s seat getting extra toasty, this game could be a squeaker or a blood bath, and I expect the Rams and their more well-rounded team to win either way. St. Louis 21 – New York Giants 14.
Week 17 predictions:
Seattle vs St. Louis
The Rams used trickery, good fortune, and flat out out-played Seattle in the first matchup. That was then, and this is now. This game will be at CenturyLink, the offense has finally settled down and forgotten Percy Harvin (who?), and the defense is playing as well as the 2013 championship unit. And did I mention that the division title is on the line? Seattle will win this one, but the Rams will get their shots in and show “big-brother” that they are almost ready to contend for the throne. Seattle 31 – St. Louis 17
Arizona vs San Francisco
Jim Harbaugh’s last stand? You guessed it. And perhaps the last time he throws a tantrum on an NFL sideline with rumors swirling that he’s headed home to Ann Arbor. This one looks like an old fashioned western in the making, so it’s fitting that it’s the final game for both teams in the Wild Wild NFC West, and within shooting distance of the “O.K. Corral”. Harbaugh’s offense vs Todd Bowles’ defense, Arians’ offense vs Vic Fangio’s defense, and it’s all going down in the desert, at the site of Super Bowl 49. What more intrigue could you ask for? If and when the Cardinals do lose to Seattle, there’s even a chance that Stanton could be asked to limp out there, do his best Kirk Gibson / Willis Reed impersonation, and win this one to potentially save the season. Over the last month, the 49ers have averaged just a hair over 11 points per game, and I can’t see that number getting better against one of the best defensive units. As bad as the Cardinals’ QB situation is, I think they can coach their way out of this one, and Arians has a knack for getting his guys ready for even the toughest opponents. Arizona 17 – San Francisco 10
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