With Oregon Sports News taking the next two weeks off for the holidays, this will actually be my last set of predictions for the regular season.

All along, I’ve thought of this endeavor as an experiment to see if certain advanced football metrics like Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and later weighted DVOA, could be reliable predictors of the outcomes of actual football games, and ultimately if they could give us some insight into the margin of the scores.

I think it’s safe to say that DVOA does seem to be a pretty good predictor of outcomes, at least after a sufficient sample of about four games has been gathered. But, I also think it’s safe to say, that it may not be a particularly good predictor of the margins of outcomes, as I’ve hovered just below .500 for the entire season.

This is not to say that I don’t still think there is a statistic, or group of statistics, that can reliably predict both outcomes and margins. It simply means that I didn’t discover them this season. Once the season is over, I’ll begin looking at various metrics and see if, in hindsight, those were the ones to focus on.

Until then, let’s see if we can knock week sixteen out of the park.

Week 16 Picks

Since I normally pick the NFC West, the Sunday night game, and the Monday night game, the fact that the Seattle Seahawks at the Arizona Cardinals game has been flexed into the Sunday night game means that there are only four games on tap this week.

As always, I’ll be using the advanced metric of weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to gauge each team’s efficiency, a total point differential to determine how easily each team tends to win by, and QBR as a measure of the most important player on the field in a modern, offensive minded NFL, the quarterback, to make my picks.

For more information on weighted DVOA, see Football Outsiders.

San Diego (8-6) at San Francisco (7-7) -2.5

Of the four games on the slate this week, this Saturday game is the only one in which the favored team is the less efficient team. The San Diego Chargers hold a 2.5% efficiency advantage over the San Francisco 49ers, as the Chargers rank 16^th in weighted DVOA compared to 17^th for the 49ers.

The most efficient unit taking the field in this Saturday game, however, is the 49ers defense, that ranks 5^th in the NFL.

Since San Diego doesn’t have nearly the running game that the Seattle Seahawks used to exploit the 49ers defense last week, much will depend on the play of Phillip Rivers. Although Rivers’ QBR for the season is a very good 70.5, it’s been below 31 in three of his last four games – 28.9 in a win over St. Louis, 12.2 in a loss to New England, and 30.9 last week in a loss to Denver. I look for this trend of bad performances to continue in Santa Clara, but it might not matter that much.

Because the most interesting statistic of the week belongs to the Seattle Seahawks, or should I say their opponents. Teams that played the Seahawks the previous week have lost eight straight weeks now in their next game. Can the 49ers make it nine straight? Given all the chaos surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s future, I think they can.

San Diego is the more efficient team overall, holds a +9 to -34 point differential advantage, and has the better quarterback according to QBR, despite late season bad performance.

The only hesitation I have is with the shorter week potentially benefiting the home team, but San Francisco is only 3-3 at home this season and 2-4 against the spread (ATS).

I’m taking the Chargers.

Pick – San Diego Chargers

New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis (6-8) -5.5              

The St. Louis Rams have not so quietly become one of the better teams in the league with a 12^th ranked weighted DVOA of 7.2%. After starting the season 1-4, the Rams have played one game above .500 and have quality wins over the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and the Denver Broncos.

The New York Giants, on the other hand, have been, at best, mediocre for the totality of the season. Having endured a seven game losing streak that culminated in a loss at Jacksonville, their current two game winning streak against terrible teams in Tennessee and Washington, has only raised their weighted DVOA to 21^st at -5.3%.

In terms of matchups, the biggest advantage goes to the Rams with the 7^th ranked defense against the Giants 20^th ranked offense. While the Giants offense is better than the Rams last three opponents – Oakland, Washington, and Arizona – the twelve total points allowed by the Rams, including two shutouts is still impressive.

Boosted greatly by the two shutouts and 76 points scored against Oakland and Washington, the Rams point differential has climbed from the negative 70 to 80 range to -6 for the season. The Giants, with one fewer victory, has a point differential of -22.

The quarterback nod goes to New York’s Eli Manning with a 68.4 QBR over Shaun Hill with a 40.9 QBR.

Efficiency, the key matchup, point differential, and home crowd go to St. Louis. And, well, the Giants have Eli. Hmm.

I’m taking the Rams.

Pick – St. Louis Rams

Seattle (10-4) -7.5 at Arizona (11-3)

Barring a week 17 upset by the Rams over the Seahawks or the 49ers over the Arizona Cardinals, this game is for all the marbles in the NFC West.

After starting the season 3-3, the Seahawks are 7-1 since and looking very much like a Super Bowl contender again. While the Cardinals have struggled, scoring 18 or fewer points in their last five games, with the exception of the loss at Seattle in week twelve and the hangover loss the following week to the Atlanta Falcons, they’ve kept on keeping on like a bird that flew. (Points to the reader who gets the obscure Bob Dylan reference).

Seattle is, by far, the more efficient team, with a 4^th ranked overall weighted DVOA of 23.1%, compared to Arizona’s 18^th ranked -1.5%.

The good matchup should be Seattle’s 3^rd ranked offense going up against Arizona’s 6^th ranked defense. The bad matchup should be Arizona’s 23^rd ranked offense trying to move the ball against the reinvigorated 3^rd ranked Seahawks defense. And, the ugly matchup might very well be every time the ball changes hands on punts or kickoffs, as the Cardinals rank 23^rd in special teams, slightly better than the 26^th ranked Seahawks.

Seattle has generated a +97 point differential in 10 wins, while Arizona has posted a +43 in 11.

Normally, I might hesitate with the spread over a touchdown for the favored road ream, but the absence of Andre Ellington and Larry Fitzgerald, along with the insertion of Ryan Lindley at quarterback for the Cardinals makes me think Arizona may not even score.

Last week Lindley put up a 7 QBR which makes Russell Wilson at 60.4 look like Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Now, keep in mind that I have a horrible record picking the Seahawks this year, but I’m going to take the ‘Hawks and the points for the NFC West title.

Pick – Seattle Seahawks

Denver (11-3) -3.5 at Cincinnati (9-4-1)

The Cincinnati Bengals 30-0 win over Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns has done nothing to make me believe in this team. This is still the team that was thrashed two weeks ago by the Pittsburgh Steelers and barely beat Houston and Tampa Bay in the two games leading up to that thrashing.

The Denver Broncos, on the other hand, remain 1^st in the NFL in DVOA for the entire season and 2^nd, behind New England, in weighted DVOA, that weights more recent games a little more heavily. And, we know that one of those more recent games came last week in a win over San Diego in which Peyton Manning was sick, like literally sick.

The Broncos hold a 31.9% efficiency advantage over the Bengals, with both the 2^nd rated offense and the 3^rd rated defense driving most of that efficiency. The Bengals rank 15^th in both offense and defense, but they’ve been playing worse of late as can be seen from their 19^th ranked weighted DVOA of -1.9%

Denver has an 82 point advantage over Cincinnati for the season (+104 to +22) and Peyton Manning’s QBR is 23.4 higher than Andy Dalton’s (80.8 to 57.4).

Given the statistical advantage in every category and the fact that the Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, I’m taking the Broncos.

Pick – Denver Broncos

Wrap Up

I’ll still be picking next week in ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em under Brian Hight’s OSN Picks in the Fans of Seattle Seahawks (spread) group, even without the column, so I’ll have a full season’s worth of data to look over in the off-season. And, there’s still the playoffs.

Everyone have a happy and safe holiday and enjoy some NFL football.