During the late 80’s and early 90’s, the Portland Trail Blazers had the best starting 5 in the NBA (you heard me Chicago). They had an All-Star point guard in Terry Porter, perennial All-Star Clyde Drexler at shooting guard and two work horses in the front court with Buck Williams and Jerome Kersey. They also had an X-factor every game in Kevin Duckworth at center, an All-Star himself. If you were a Blazers fan back then, you prayed every game that Duckworth would have a big night because if he did then the Blazers were almost assured a win. It’s a lot of how I think of Nicolas Batum. Now, Batum and Duckworth are obviously completely different players. But how I think of them going into each and every Blazers game are very similar. If Batum is on and having a great game, the Blazes chances of winning are nearly doubled if not assured if the other guys are doing their job. Which brings us to the question of the moment for Blazers fans: What has happened to Nicolas Batum this year?
Is it just me, or does Batum look lost this season, or not quite himself? Is he tired? Injured? Worried about getting those checks to his ex-wife? For most of this season his shot has been off, his usually stalwart defense has been less than stellar, and he has had some of the most mind-numbingly bad passes since the Raymond Felton days. So, is it just me or is something going on here?
Across the board, Nicolas’ stats are down from his recent to career averages with the lone exceptions being rebounding and steals. His scoring is down nearly 2 points a game (11.4 to 9.4 career) and way down from the last 4 years; his assists are down slightly from the last couple years; his field goal percentage is just plain lousy this season compared to his career averages (.405 this season compared to a .450 career average) which can be contributed to his brutally horrid 3-point percentage which is at.269 this year compared to his .362 career average. Although his rebounding is hitting his career average, it is down nearly 3 rebounds a game from last year. With just about every offensive statistic on the downward trend, his struggles have been hard to watch and his lapses on defense and judgment have been just mystifying.
Batum’s struggles on offense this year are all the more perplexing considering his play in the FIBA World Cup this last year where he averaged nearly 15 points per game and shot nearly 50% from the floor. In stretches he could dominate a game offensively as he did with his 27 point performance in France’s final game against Lithuania in which Batum’s home country won 95-92 thanks in large part to his stellar performance. It was exciting to watch and to think he was bringing this kind of offensive punch to the Blazers this year. However, we haven’t seen that player yet.
It is possible that his play in the FIBA World Cup have contributed to his below average play. Perhaps, Batum is a bit fatigued from playing so much extra basketball this past summer. If that’s the case, then it will be an issue that will become especially worrisome for the Blazers if they hope for a long playoff run. If Batum is feeling fatigued, it would be wise for the Blazers to rest him a bit more when they are back to full strength, as it is now they can’t afford another loss with Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland out for at least a couple more weeks. For the upcoming All-Star break, maybe Nicolas should take a really, really long nap.
Then there is the other possibility that may frighten the Blazers organization and its fans the most. Batum has been playing with a hurt knee. He had two rounds of Platelet Rich Plasma injections in his right knee last November. There have been whispers and concerns that his knee isn’t getting any better and could get worse but Batum disregards those rumors and says his knee is fine, just ‘different’. A knee injury would certainly account for Batum’s shooting slump has he wouldn’t be able to get the normal lift off on his shot. Knees have been the arch enemy of the Blazers organization throughout much of its history and this above fatigue and a shooting slump is what worries fans the most. The basketball gods were kind to us this last year on the injury front, let’s hope we are not paying our dues this year because I think this team has paid more than its share of injury dues.
Still, watching Batum at times I can’t help but think fatigue and a bum knee is not the only problem. There are times when he just looks completely out of it. Take the last meeting against the Toronto Raptors where he inexplicably threw a lazy crosscourt pass to Steve Blake near the end of regulation in a tight game, a possession where all you had to do was hold onto the ball, a possession that would cost the Blazers a win in regulation. He would later throw another errant pass in OT of the same game, a game the Blazers would eventually win and those errant passes would become a non-issue to the forgetful mind of the winning side. While Batum has been known to throw a lazy pass or two during his career, he has taken it to a different level this season. While stats can tell you one story, the eyeballs can tell you another, and to my eyeballs something seems amidst for Batum this year. He just doesn’t seem like the same player during the first half of this season.
Others may argue that Nicolas’ offensive woes are due to his shooting less under Coach Terry Stotts’ system; however that does not answer for his plummeting field goal percentage. If he was still shooting the same percentage as last year his numbers should be about the same even while shooting a couple less field goal attempts per game. It also doesn’t account for why his assists are down this year. If Batum’s role in Stotts’ offense is to distribute more, then his assists numbers should be rising this season. But, they are not. So I don’t buy Stotts’ system as the reason for Batum’s drop in offensive categories. Nicolas has always been an unselfish player, maybe too much at times. But even when he does shoot, it often falls short of the rim. That is the result of either tired legs, an injury, or a player mired in a shooting slump that is thinking way too much. I’m hoping for the latter. Shooting slumps can be erased in a single game, a game where the mind remembers to not think and just shoot. Fatigue is a much harder issue to solve with still half a season left to go, injuries can be even more so.
Batum is just 26 years old; his stats should be rising for the next few seasons and not falling off as dramatically as they have, albeit with much of the season still in play. His drop in numbers has been largely overshadowed by Portland’s hot start, a start that has surpassed even last year. But, they will need him to step up at some point this season. He is their forever X-Factor, a player that can make all the difference in game or playoff series. While many teams in the Western Conference have an All-Star one-two punch, Batum is that third punch for the Blazers. He is a player than can do almost anything at any given moment: score points, rebound, block shots, dish a timely assist or stop your opponent’s best weapon with defense. At any given time, Nicolas Batum can do anything basketball related and do it very well. That is the Nicolas Batum I know. That is the Batum I saw at the FIBA World Cup and that is the Batum I hope shows up for the second half of the season.
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