The last time the two NFC Championship teams met it was opening weekend in Seattle. The result of the much-hyped game revealed not much of a contest when the final whistle blew. The Seattle Seahawks laid claim as the team to beat for the 2014 season by defeating the Green Bay Packers 36 – 16. The Packers were labeled as pretenders masquerading as contenders.
If it’s going to be different this time around, here’s how. Green Bay wins if …
The Packers even up the run game deficit
In their first meeting, the Packers run game could not get going. In contrast, Marshawn Lynch delivered one of his best rushing performances of the entire season, right out of the gate. Lynch’s total of 110 yards on 20 carries (5.5 yards per carry) were punctuated by two touchdowns and some back-breaking fourth quarter rushes that effectively ended the game. He also added a nifty 14-yard reception on his lone target. With this total, which he surpassed only three times the rest of the season, it’s safe to say Lynch likes playing the Packers.
He may find the going a little tougher in the rematch. While Green Bay’s defense languished at the bottom of the league in rushing defense through the first eight weeks of the season, by season’s end, they had climbed to an almost respectable 23rd. To get to that not-that-great-of-a-ranking, they made some key personnel and scheme adjustments during their week nine bye.
From that point on, the Packers deployed Clay Matthews (formerly solely an outside linebacker) in the middle linebacker slot in certain early down packages. He continues to shift inside and out, depending on what one of their multiple fronts they are planning on any given play. Matthews quickly proved to be the answer needed at middle linebacker, bringing more athleticism and suddenness to run defense in addition to interior rushing.
When the Packers go with three or fewer linebackers, look for Matthews in the middle. When they go back to their base 3-4 — which they use less and less — Matthews will line up on his customary edge. Other key personnel roles that were altered since week nine include more snaps for young, aggressive middle linebacker Sam Barrington, more snaps at slot corner for Micah Hyde, and more opportunities for starting safety Morgan Burnett to deploy closer to the line in run support.
On the Packers’ offensive side, Eddie Lacy had a forgettable outing against the Seahawks in week one. He amassed a mere 34 yards on 12 carries and exited the game with a concussion. The more effective back was James Starks with 37 yards on seven attempts. Neither scored.
When the comparing the two teams’ lead backs now, the story is much different. Looking back over the most recent seven games, between Lynch and Lacy, the hotter back is Lacy. Lacy had more rushing yards (693 to 552), more total yards from scrimmage (808 to 678) and a higher average per rush (5.09 to 4.71). With an effective Lacy and Starks, the Packers have legitimate reason to believe they can neutralize the Seahawks’ greatest strength (speed) by running at them.
The Packers’ most effective running plays are simple stretch plays. Seattle plays fairly basic defense and relies upon their faster, more athletic defenders being assignment-sure and making plays. Deception won’t be in play on the ground. It will be interesting to see who wins this battle of execution. Whoever gets the running game going first will have a dominant edge toward the game’s outcome.
One more thing about the Seahawks’ week one run game: One important element in that matchup is now missing: Percy Harvin. Before the Harvin experiment imploded, Harvin gashed the Packers with 41 rushing yards on four attempts. Harvin effectively kept the Packers defenders going side-to-side in that game. No more.
The Packers make significantly more plays in the passing game
This is no apples-to-apples comparison. The Packers and Seahawks could scarcely be more different when it comes to the passing game. The Packers feature arguably the league’s best player, quarterback Aaron Rodgers (38 touchdowns, 5 interceptions) and a pair of high-performing star receivers in Jordy Nelson (1,519 yards, 13 TDs) and Randall Cobb (1,287 yards, 12 TDs).
The Seahawks, despite their less-than-impressive 27th-ranked passing offense, come into this game with a different brand of effectiveness. First and foremost, quarterback Russell Wilson has proven to be the league’s best rushing quarterback. (Since Wilson remains a rather reluctant runner, I consider his rushing prowess an extension of the passing game — also because most of his rushing attempts occur out of designed pass plays.) His 849 rushing yards lead all quarterbacks and a whole lot of starting running backs.
Second, with Harvin, Golden Tate and Sidney Rice long gone and a revolving door at the tight end position, the Seahawks do not rely upon one or two star receivers, like the Packers. On any given day, Wilson may favor Jermaine Kearse, Doug Baldwin, Luke Willson, someone else — or he may just tuck it and run. Either way, the Seahawks oft-maligned passing game manages to do pretty well. Well enough, at least.
Unlike the Packers’ running game, deception will be a factor in their passing game. Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is a master at deploying exotic personnel groupings and schemes that often get the Packers the personnel matchup they seek. It’s why several times a game you will often see a Packers receiver running in wide open spaces with a laser from Rodgers on its way. Packers receivers are also adept at corralling contested balls and not just the wide-open gimmes. Check out the highlights from the Divisional round playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys for evidence, courtesy of Cobb, and rookies Davante Adams and Richard Rodgers.
The contrast in styles notwithstanding, if the Packers are going to write a different ending to this story, they must execute much better than the Seahawks in the passing game. A mere tie in explosive plays and scoring plays will work very much in the home team’s favor. Losing rookie wide receiver Paul Richardson to a knee injury does not help the Seahawks’ offensive pop. Richardson was emerging as a more reliable option as the season went on.
The Packers finish at least plus-2 in turnovers
While the Seahawks sport the NFL’s top defense in yards surrendered, it is the Packers who bring the more opportunistic defense to the NFC Championship game.
Thanks in no small part to Rodgers’ unwillingness to throw interceptions, the Packers led the NFL in turnover differential (+14), while collecting 27 (tied for eighth) turnovers on defense. The Seahawks (+12 turnover differential) forced 20 fumbles (collecting 10) and swiped 13 interceptions for 23 total turnovers. The Packers defense forced 14 fumbles (collecting nine) and swiped 18 interceptions for their total of 27. The Packers defense also racked up more sacks than did the Seahawks with 41 compared to Seattle’s 37.
Both teams are adept at not turning the ball over and at coming up with turnovers. The Packers are a little more effective at it than Seattle is. They must exploit this edge fully and somehow get Russell Wilson on the ground before he can do damage with his legs when the Packers are expecting pass.
And one more thing
It would be remiss to not compare the Packers’ and Seahawks’ offensive lines and the journeys they’ve taken to get from week one to the NFC Championship game. Obviously, both have a major bearing on how effective each team’s run game and passing game will be.
In week one, the Packers started a raw rookie center (Corey Linsley) and lost their starting right tackle, Bryan Bulaga for a significant portion of the game. The Seahawks took advantage of backup right tackle Derek Sherrod (since released) and dominated the line of scrimmage when the Packers had the ball. Sacks really didn’t tell the story in week one but the three sacks garnered by the Seahawks certainly helped. The constant pressure and disruption the Seahawks created were the real reason why Rodgers was held to an uncharacteristically low 189 passing yards.
Since that time, the Packers’ offensive line has held steady in terms of starting personnel and have earned praise as one of the league’s best, most consistent units. In contrast, the Seahawks started the season solidly against the Packers, but soon faced numerous issues as the season went on. Rookie right tackle Justin Britt played every down, but other key starters missed multiple games, which, no doubt, played a part in the Seahawks’ scant passing yards … and correspondingly in Wilson’s copious scrambling yards.
With starting center Max Unger just returned to the lineup after missing multiple games, and his other linemates in a state of improved health, ironically is it Britt that is in danger of missing this game. Britt was held out of practice this week with a knee issue.
I’ll go out on a limb and predict that the Packers will emphasize the run and even up the rushing differential that was their undoing in the week one matchup. This will effectively slow the game down and place more emphasis on impact passing plays and turnovers. Two or three splash plays in this game (let’s acknowledge that the Seahawks hold a distinct edge in special teams effectiveness — the Packers have had seven kicks blocked this season) and the game’s outcome will be determined.
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