Saying the Portland Trail Blazers had a bad week would be a general statement that ignores the issues exposed by the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies. Yes, the Blazers fought back in both games, and had great chances to win them. It’s the factors that got Portland into trouble in the first place that should be the focus as we head into the second half of the season.
With 41 of the 82 games behind them, the Trail Blazers have established themselves as a very good team with a few flaws, a fact that isn’t as troubling as it seems. Every team in the Western Conference has its issues. The Golden State Warriors’ defense relies on a center (Andrew Bogut) who’s made of glass. The San Antonio Spurs are moldering on the spot, and only just got the band back together.
The Grizzlies will get over their Jeff Green honeymoon, and their offense will likely stall out in the face of playoff defense. The Clippers have nobody other than J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford on the wing that can score, and neither of them can play defense. The Dallas Mavericks stink on defense. The Oklahoma City Thunder are running out of time to make it back in the playoff picture. The Houston Rockets are the Rockets.
Portland’s problems center around Nicolas Batum and the trapping, sellout defense being played on Damian Lillard lately.
Batum is an issue that can’t be schemed around, but it impacts how teams have played Lillard these days. During the Clippers game, there were possessions where Lillard would run a pick play, and Chris Paul and the big man defending either LaMarcus Aldridge or Chris Kaman (usually Blake Griffin) would hedge out HARD, trapping Lillard.
That strategy was copied some by Memphis, with Marc Gasol, an incredibly intelligent defender, able to assist in corralling Lillard without compromising the defense as a whole. This strategy won’t be used for long; Lillard is a prodigious worker, and undoubtedly he and his coaches are hard at work figuring out what to do if he sees these tactics again.
It worked in the Clippers and Memphis games because there were no auxiliary ball handlers on the floor for Portland that could capably take the pressure off. Batum falling off a cliff in terms of confidence is the most visible reason, but there are others; CJ McCollum is an isolation player unfit to be a lead ball handler, Steve Blake and Wesley Matthews lack the proper skills, and Air Sasquatch is not as capable a roll man as Robin Lopez.
Opposing teams are finally catching on to Batum’s uselessness, helping off him to contain Matthews’ three-point shot, doubling Aldridge, and trapping Lillard. Most teams don’t have an athletic big like Griffin, or an intelligent defensive hub like Marc Gasol, but the bad news for Portland is that in the West, every contending team except Dallas has one of the two on their teams.
Whether by making a trade, getting Lopez back and healthy, or just having everybody except Aldridge, Lillard, and Matthews (if Wes, the league leader in threes, doesn’t get invited to the Three-Point Contest, it‘ll be a legitimate shock) take a break during All-Star Week, the Trail Blazers could use some rejuvenation. It doesn’t help that in March and April, Portland plays only ten home games.
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen. The stretch run is about to begin.
Time for picks! Let’s go! (All games on AM 620 radio, all stats per NBA.com)
Monday, Jan. 19: versus the Sacramento Kings, CSNNW, 7:00 PM
The Skinny: Since we saw these guys last, they’ve had an…interesting…time of it. DeMarcus Cousins, the beastly center posting career numbers, contracted viral meningitis, a disease that infects the layer of matter between the brain and skull. As the name suggests, it causes highly painful inflammation of that layer.
My biology teacher in high school suffered from meningitis (it’s supposed to be more common in the Pacific Northwest than other parts of the world, hooray for damp temperate climates); it can be life-threatening, and I’m frankly amazed that Cousins wasn’t sidelined for longer than he was. He’s a tough young man.
Cousins’ absence caused the Kings to fall back to Earth after their hot start (which included a victory over the Blazers), and that’s where things got screwed up. Vivek Ranadive, the owner, fired head coach Mike Malone despite Malone not having his best player, Cousins. Ranadive then put Ty Corbin, a useless lump posing as an NBA coach, in charge for the rest of the season while the Kings management looks around for, as Ranadive puts it, “a jazz conductor.”
Problem is, with Cousins and Rudy Gay as their two best players, and no high-class point guard on the roster, Ranadive’s vision for the team just won’t materialize. He could detonate the roster yet again, but Sacramento just got approval for a new arena after more than a decade of political and financial wrangling. They CANNOT pimp a shiny new arena if the product they’ll put in it is one of the worst teams in the NBA.
The Kings’ situation is worth watching, for a variety of reasons. The plan they have for the team either is flawed or hasn’t been entirely revealed yet, and I’m anxious to see which is true.
Key Matchup: Wesley Matthews vs. Rudy Gay. Gay’s traditional numbers are solid; 20 points, six rebounds, and four assists a game with 45% shooting from the field is a classic second-banana line for a perimeter player. That’s Gay’s ideal role, and he fills it well.
The advanced shooting stats for Gay, always unkind to him, show a somewhat more efficient player this season. Although he still takes more shots from the midrange than anywhere else on the floor, it’s not by a wide margin, and his combined totals of shots attempted inside of 14 feet and at the rim almost double his midrange attempts.
Gay’s shooting 38.6% from the midrange, so he’s quite spotty from there, but midrange shooters have murdered the Blazers this season; Beno Udrih’s game-clinching shot in Memphis on Saturday came on a pull-up 19-footer. (That was after some bad defense from Damian Lillard. Take note, for this will be one of the few times a human being will ever type this sentence: Damian Lillard failed in the clutch.)
He hung 40 points on Portland in Sacramento, and while Terry Stotts’ defense will continue to give Gay those shots, Matthews and Nicolas Batum might want to think about challenging him more often.
Prediction: Eager to wash away the stains of defeat from the Moda Center, Portland defeats Sacramento, who lack the athletes to play that trapping defense seen last week.
Wednesday, Jan. 21: @ the Phoenix Suns, CSNNW, 6:00 PM
The Skinny: It’s odd that the Blazers go this far without playing a team for the first time in the season, especially a fellow Western Conference team. Considering that Phoenix had their way with Portland last season, it’s probably not a bad thing.
Some basic facts about the Suns: they regularly play three point guards in their lineup, Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas. Not so coincidentally, they also play at the third-fastest pace in the league; all those great ball handling guards enable Phoenix to attack from anywhere on the court, and start fast-breaks as well.
Phoenix has the sixth-best offensive rating, but they’re only 17th on the defensive side of the ball; playing fast and small gooses the offense, but you pay for it on the other end, which is why the Suns are a fringe playoff team in the West. Despite playing three point guards, they rank just 20th in assists per game. Drives by Dragic and Thomas are either getting finished at the rim, end up missing, or are kicked out without a resulting open shot.
Last year, the Suns (along with the Blazers and Rockets) got huge chunks of their offense from behind the three-point line. Without Channing Frye, a pick-and-pop extraordinaire, and with Thomas, who’d rather drive into the paint than chuck a three, Phoenix ranks 10th in 3PTFG%. They attempt the fifth-most threes in the NBA, but Frye was a big part of that machine, and while Markieff Morris has done a decent job impersonating him, Morris isn’t Frye.
With an average defense (at best), Phoenix’s offense has to be Atlanta Hawks-good to stand a chance of beating out the other two teams contending for that eighth playoff spot in the West. The Suns don’t have the raw talent of the Thunder, nor do they have a player capable of dominating a game like the New Orleans Pelicans. That offense is great, but it’s not elite, and that might doom them, again.
Key Matchup: The Blazers’ backcourt vs. the Suns’ backcourt. Rather than highlight just two players, I thought it would be more apt to compare the entire units.
Damian Lillard and Dragic were the All-NBA Third Team guards last season, and while Dragic is older and relies much more on the pick-and-roll, there are similarities between them. Both have killer handles, both shoot threes very well, and both are fiercely competitive.
Wes Matthews and Bledsoe also bear resemblances. They’re both bulldogs on the defensive ends, willing to challenge anyone and everyone they’re asked to guard. Bledsoe’s long wingspan, stellar athleticism, and said mentality allow Phoenix coach Jeff Hornacek to play the three-guard lineup without sacrificing too much in terms of on-ball defense.
Steve Blake and Thomas couldn’t be more different. Like his namesake, the legendary point guard for the Detroit Pistons in the 80s and early 90s, Thomas is an elusive jitterbug with lightning reflexes. The modern-day Thomas is even smaller; I doubt he stands taller than me.
Blake’s game has always revolved around toughness, timely shooting, and just enough ball skills to run an offense without screwing up. When Blake enters the game, he’ll have to be careful not to get run off the floor; whomever is the lead ball handler for the Suns, he’ll be looking to take advantage of Blake’s lack of speed.
Looking at these units, I recall a favorite phrase of Grantland’s Jalen Rose: “There’s a mouse in the house.” Matthews will be looking to pin down one of Phoenix’s guards on the block; Bledsoe lacks experience defending in the post, and neither Dragic or Thomas has the strength to contend with Wes in the post.
Prediction: While Phoenix likes the pace fast, Portland doesn’t mind going quick either. Look for Lillard and Matthews to have big games, with a steady dose of LaMarcus Aldridge buckets. Portland wins.
Thursday, Jan. 22: versus the Boston Celtics, KGW, 7:00 PM
The Skinny: When the Celtics were last seen in this space, GM Danny Ainge was searching for a way to unload his veterans. After trading Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, Boston’s finally committed to a full youth movement and all the pains involved.
There isn’t a true star prospect on the roster yet, but Ainge likely isn’t done trading. Marcus Smart might be the only true keeper currently playing for Boston. Everything else is fair game, draft picks included.
As for free agency, I suppose if Ainge wanted to be a jerk, he could make max offers to the top restricted free agents. That would drive up the price for a talented young guy that teams would like to keep for a cheaper price, clogging a future rival’s cap space in the worst-case scenario.
No star player would choose to go to Boston and basically replace Rondo as the star player stuck on a rebuilding team, but if Boston could pry away a top restricted free agent, or sign Detroit big man Greg Monroe after the season, that would help move things along.
Ultimately, it’s about the draft this summer for Danny Ainge and the Celtics. Now that they’ve committed to building through young players, they better hope they get lucky in the lottery. Either Jahlil Okafor or Karl Towns would be a great pick, raw yet talented centers just waiting to be molded by coach Brad Stevens.
Either through the draft, or poaching Monroe, Boston must acquire a franchise big to serve as the base for the team they hope to build.
Key Matchup: Sorry for being lazy, but the Celtics have nobody of consequence. Watching Lillard take apart Smart isn’t my idea of a key matchup.
Prediction: Blazers take advantage of a young team at home.
Saturday, Jan. 24: versus the Washington Wizards, CSNNW, 7:00 PM
(Note: this game will be featured on NBATV, but Blazer games on NBATV are usually blacked out in the Oregon/ SW Washington area.)
The Skinny: The Blazers and Wizards have quite a bit in common. They’re both very accurate teams from three-point range, though Washington shoots significantly fewer threes. Both have surprisingly done better on defense than offense this year, the sum of their parts mattering more than the parts themselves.
The Wiz have a slightly above-average offense, but the defense is tied for seventh in rating, and John Wall is an elite creator off the dribble and in the pick-and-roll. He’s expert at getting the likes of Paul Pierce and Rasual Butler open threes, and Bradley Beal has grown as a ball handler, using those skills to complement his deadly jump-shooting.
One area of concern in regard to both teams is the Wizards’ league-leading number of attempts from the midrange. From 15-24 feet overall, they shoot 31 shots a game, and the inner half of that spectrum is of concern from the Portland end. As I’ve mentioned above, the Blazers have been burned at times from the midrange, and Washington shooting the most from there, with two solid shooting big men in Nene and Marcin Gortat, is worrisome.
Washington has the second-best FG% in the league, a testament to Wall’s shot-creating abilities. As the latest Eastern power to visit Rip City, Washington will look to avoid the fate of Chicago, Toronto, and Cleveland.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. John Wall. Two young, dynamic point guards that practice their crafts in different ways, Lillard and Wall have both been underappreciated in the NBA. With Lillard’s reputation as a clutch assassin, and Wall averaging a double-double (17 PPG, 10 APG), that’s changing fast.
While teams are so afraid of Lillard’s shooting that they sell out to deny him a clear look, teams sag off of Wall on the pick-and-roll, daring him to shoot. When he makes his jumpers, like in the games he played against Chicago last week, it borders on unfair. That happens rarely, however, and that’s due as much to Wall’s pass-first instincts as his spotty jump-shooting.
I’m a big fan of John Wall, by the way. His game, to me, is about speed and power in equal measure; he’s a Russell Westbrook that actually passes, or a larger Chris Paul that can chase you down from behind on a fast break. He actually stuffed a LeBron James layup attempt last season.
His ceiling as a player is some sort of Dwyane Wade/Paul hybrid, a ceiling that inspired the Wizards to take him first overall four years ago despite his knee troubles. If he stays healthy, Wall could eventually become a great one.
Lillard will have to make every open shot count in this game. Against Johnny Wall, there won’t be many.
Prediction: I’m going to go the other way on this one. The Wiz salvage some Eastern Conference pride in Rip City.
Last week, the Blazers went 0-3. I picked them to lose two of those games because I’m a horrible person.
Trail Blazers’ Record: 30-11
Jared’s Picks Record: 30-11
Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This day is significant in more ways than I can list in this space. To me, Dr. King was an advocate for peace amongst all people on Earth, his message not just for peace between white and black Americans, but for peace between all peoples.
Dr. King represented the best in humanity, the dauntless idealism that not only defined his character, but brightened the world he lived in. Every time I sit next to a person of color on the bus, I think about the Jim Crow laws that were in effect in Portland during Dr. King’s lifetime, and his efforts to abolish those inhumane laws everywhere. Every time I date a woman of color and take her out to eat, I think about the people who couldn’t buy a meal in Portland because of the color of their skin.
During this day, I implore you to take some time to think about Dr. King, and the impact his efforts have had on the world. Tensions between people of different backgrounds may still be high, but today, I choose to focus on how far we’ve come from the days when African slaves were carted across an ocean and sold like cattle, when Native Americans (some of whom were my ancestors) were slaughtered or displaced to make room for white settlers, when the Japanese and Americans employed racially-charged propaganda against one another during the Second World War.
In thinking how far the human race has come, one finds it easier to focus on how far we still have to go.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
