Four Keys To Beating A Team That Has Beat You Four Times

Coming into the final day of the regular season, the Portland Trail Blazers were still unsure of who they would face in the First Round of the playoffs this weekend. The convoluted mess of the Western Conference Playoff scenarios were solved by about 9 o’clock when the Memphis Grizzlies beat the Indiana Pacers.

The Western Conference laid out as follows: (1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans. (2) Houston Rockets vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks. (3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio Spurs. (4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies.

Here in Rip City, there are extreme mixed emotions leading into the playoff season ahead. With the rash of recent injuries and the uncertainty surrounding the health of the majority of the roster, there seems to be a lot of doubt about the chances this team has. The fact that the team has lost the final four games of the regular season also puts a damper on the excitement that should surround a team that won 50+ games for the second season in a row and won the Northwest Division.

Another thing that has given Blazer fans pause heading into the Sunday tip-off of the First Round is the fact that the Blazers are matched up with the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that beat them four times in the regular season.

In the 4 matchups this season, the Grizzlies scored 102 points per game, compared to the Blazers’ 94. With this 8-point differential, the Grizzlies had their way with the Blazers. However, as they say, the real season starts with the playoffs. Everything that all of these teams have done throughout the year leads up to this point. The unpredictability and excitement about the playoffs is what drags everyone in, and you just never know what will happen.

Here are my four keys for the Blazers winning the series against the Grizzlies, a team that beat them four times in the regular season.

1. Health, Health, Health – Unfortunately the Blazers have faced a lot of adversity in the health department this year, despite having NBA Trainer of the Year Jeff Clark. Wesley Matthews went down for the season with a ruptured Achilles, Dorrell Wright is out for a couple more weeks with a broken bone in his hand, Arron Afflalo has missed a few games with a strained shoulder, Nicolas Batum has a knee contusion, CJ McCollum sprained his ankle, Chris Kaman tweaked his back. All of this without considering the LaMarcus Aldridge thumb injury that was thought to possibly be season-ending. Lately the Grizzlies have faced some similar difficulties losing Tony Allen, Vince Carter, and Mike Conley for stretches. Also having Marc Gasol banged up with an ankle injury, the Grizzlies seemingly limped towards the playoffs as well. The difference in this series will likely be who can field the most complete and healthy roster.
2. Robin Lopez – The bigs in this series are going to get a ton of attention. LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez vs. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will be the main storyline the next couple weeks. A lot of the pressure is going to fall onto the shoulders of Lopez to defend Gasol and anchor the defense for the Blazers. Lopez averaged only 27.9 minutes per game, less than any Blazer starter. That will change in this series. Lopez will need to be on the floor the majority of the time that Gasol is on the floor. That physical matchup will be a lot of fun to watch and will go a long way to determining the winner of the series.
3. Guard Play – Conley had the upper hand on Damian Lillard during the four games they saw each other this season. Conley averaged 18 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds a game against the Blazers this year. All of that with only two turnovers the entire series. The Blazers will need to find a way to bottle him up if they want to win this series. Lillard needs to step up defensively and wear Conley out on the other end of the floor. Jason Quick of the Oregonian had a great quote from Lillard about his defense. “I don’t know how much you all pay attention to me and what I do. If there’s anything you should know it’s I ain’t scared or none of that. And I ain’t going to listen to what someone says about me and be OK with that. I’m going to go show. I show up. If anybody says I don’t show up, then I don’t know what they have been watching. I will say that: I’m going to show up.” Lillard is a gamer and if he has his game face on and if focus each and every night, I give the upper hand to the two-time All Star from Oakland.
4. Pace of Play – This pace of play in this series will likely determine who gets the upper hand in this series. The Blazers want to get up and down the court and open up their offensive game. The Grizzlies want to beat and bang and wear you out defensively. Portland was 12^th in the league for pace of play, Memphis was 26^th. Portland scored 103 points per game, Memphis scored 98 points per game. If Portland can get out on the break and get some easy buckets that will play right into what they are hoping to accomplish. If Memphis can slow down the game, they will have the upper hand on the beat up Trail Blazers. Although Portland has a good half-court offense, Memphis wants to make Portland one dimensional and grind them down in the half-court game.

I really think that both teams are going to be able to “flip the switch” heading into this series. Both of these teams are physical, prideful teams with veteran leadership. There are many moving pieces and variables in this matchup but it can really be boiled down to a few simple things. When it is all said and done, I think this series goes 6 or 7 games and will be one to remember. Let’s hope that the Blazers can dig deep, get healthy, and steal a game or two in Memphis to start the series. This series will show the continued maturation of this team after making it to the second round of the playoffs last season.