The Portland Trail Blazers enter the postseason with one of their more valuable players, Wesley Matthews, out for the year rehabbing a torn Achilles, Nicolas Batum hobbled by a shoulder strain, fellow starter Arron Afflalo mired by a knee bruise, and sparkplug guard C.J. McCollum bugged by an ankle injury. If that wasn’t enough, forward Dorell Wright is expected to miss the series with a broken hand, while star LaMarcus Aldridge is hampered by a sprained foot and backup center Chris Kaman to a lower back strain.
Everyone might be hurting, but they aren’t alone: the outlook may be bleak and yet their first-round opponent, the Memphis Grizzlies, don’t exactly have a leg-up in the health department. They might Point guard Mike Conley has been sidelined since April 8th with a sprained right foot, shooting guard and defensive stalwart Tony Allen since March 27th with a hamstring injury, and center Marc Gasol is playing through a troubled ankle. Memphis’s defense, which allowed the second fewest points per game in the NBA this season, can help weather the storm, but the limitations of their stars is impossible to overlook. Gasol is set to continue to play through the pain, and Conley and Allen intend to play in Game 1, though how effective they can be is up in the air. Given all of this, there is a strong likelihood both teams will heavily rely on the supporting cast. Who will be called upon to step up?
Allen Crabbe, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
McCollum’s play has picked up of late with increased minutes due to injuries sustained to Matthews, Wright and Afflalo, but head coach Terry Stotts might go in a different direction when it comes to selecting a starting guard alongside Lillard if Afflalo is healthy enough to play. His preference may be Allen Crabbe, whose numbers don’t begin to tell his story.
“I think Allen complements Damian (Lillard) and (LaMarcus Aldridge),” Stotts said to The Oregonian’s Joe Freeman, “as far as being defensive minded, not needing shots, not needing the ball.”
Crabbe enters the postseason averaging 3 points per game in 51 games, including nine starts, but he does all of the little things and relies on his strengths. He is capable of hitting three-pointers, posting a respectable 35 percent mark from downtown on the season, and he is the closest thing Portland has to Matthews defensively with Afflalo on the shelf. And, Stotts is right: he does complement the two stars well. Putting McCollum in the starting lineup would essentially create a backcourt with the same makeup: McCollum, like Lillard, needs the ball to be effective, and Portland doesn’t benefit from having two volume shooters who are far from defensive savvy playing regular minutes. Crabbe’s presence not only helps a defense that has regressed considerably since Matthews injury, but his shooting ability allows for Portland to stretch the floor and allow Lillard to create open looks for spot-up shooters like himself, Batum and Aldridge. Stotts thinks he can definitely make an impact on this end of the floor.
“It’s not like he can’t play offense,” Stotts said to The Oregonian‘s Joe Freeman. “There are players in the league who come in and they’re strictly defenders. But he was a scorer in college and he can help us at the offensive end. I think he plays off the ball a little bit more, whereas CJ plays with the ball. I think it’s all about trying to maximize what each guy can bring.”
Meyers Leonard, C, Blazers
Portland does undoubtedly need McCollum’s scoring, but perhaps as beneficial would be an effective Meyers Leonard. The young center has made significant strides this season, and while his minutes have fluctuated to mirror inconsistent production he does have the ability to stretch the floor and score inside. His three-point stroke has vastly improved, and he has become more and more confident in the paint. There’s a great deal of confidence residing within, and it is seeping out with more regularity.
In the Blazers recent loss to Oklahoma City, Meyers Leonard took advantage of increased minutes as the team rested their starters, scoring 24 points in 32 minutes on 9-17 shooting, including 5-9 from three-point range. This level of production isn’t expected come playoff time, considering the playing time he saw in this contest will likely be cut in half, but Portland needs him to continue to make an impact in whatever minutes he receives. This is especially crucial considering the team is going up against one of the best frontlines in the NBA, in power forward Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
Randolph and Gasol are wily veterans who know how to score in a variety of ways and clean both the offensive and defensive glass. Their ability to particularly box out defenders, collect teammates misses, and connect on immediate putbacks or kick the ball back out for another set play create difficulties for Portland. Though they are rebounding machines, especially Randolph, the Blazers can match up well against this duo with Robin Lopez and Aldridge. That said, Portland will not only need Kaman’s bulk inside but Leonard’s ability to force either big out of the paint to defend the perimeter and the three-point line. Leonard has to prove to the Grizzlies that they should be wary of his shooting ability, and if he can do that by simply making a couple of mid-range jumpers or threes, that in turn would help Lopez, Aldridge and Kaman grab rebounds with less resistance.
Jeff Green, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
Green is one of Memphis’s more important players but despite being an aggressive driver inside he negates this strength by being an overall inconsistent shooter. Since he joined Memphis earlier this season he is shooting 42 percent from the field. And while his three-point percentage is up, from 30 percent with Boston before the midseason trade to 36 percent in 45 games since, this uptick only magnifies his struggles from inside the line. Come playoff time, Memphis has historically and inexplicably gone away from Gasol, whose smooth inside game is nullified due to a lack of touches. If this happens again for long stretches, Green will likely find the ball in his hands with the pressure to create.
Memphis has many perimeter players who are far from dependable in the open floor: Allen, now that he’s playing, Courtney Lee, Beno Udrih, an aged Vince Carter, and rookie Russ Smith. And given Conley and Allen are both unknowns entering the series, it will be imperative for Green, capable of lighting up the scoreboard, to find his stroke and not let go. His play is made even more crucial considering how deep Portland is on the frontline against Randolph and Gasol. Memphis will need options outside of those two, and if Green struggles to be one of them Portland could prevail.
Kosta Koufos, PF/C, Grizzlies
Aldridge knows how to draw fouls. So does Lillard on aggressive drives to the rim. Lopez, with his length and tenacity, can too. This means that try as they might Gasol and Randolph are bound to commit fouls. Neither are particularly prone to get into foul trouble, but if Portland is as assertive as they should be there is the potential for unforeseen stints on the bench for these two. In the event of this, Kosta Koufos will be called upon to make an impact. He is their version of Kaman, and for Memphis to take the pressure off their two bigs–foul trouble or not–he needs to make his presence felt inside.
This is not his forte, however. The 26-year-old 7-footer has scored in double figures only seven times this season, instead making an impact grabbing rebounds and defending at the rim. He is sure to continue excelling at these strengths, but 8-10 points per game might be necessary. Portland is banged up, but that doesn’t mean they lack scoring, especially inside. Koufos will have a tall order defending Aldridge, Kaman, Lopez and possibly even Leonard, and while that may be the case he can help his cause by scoring against them from time to time. Just as Leonard’s hopeful production would for Aldridge, Koufos’s would take some weight off the shoulders of Randolph and Gasol.
Prediction: I think it’s going to be a very gritty series. Memphis isn’t a high-scoring team, ranking 20th in the league this season and five points per game behind ninth-ranked Portland in that category, but they make up for it with the aforementioned excellent defense. Portland’s defense is statistically quite good, allowing their opponents to shoot a lower percentage than Memphis’s, but overall it has faltered of late, in large part due to the absence of Matthews and especially during a trying final month. And yet, just as Memphis hides their struggles on offense with that superb defense, Portland hides a defense that is porous at times behind an offense still equipped with elite playmakers.
I’ll have to go with Portland in seven games. If Conley and Allen somehow look like they didn’t miss a beat sitting out nursing injuries, Memphis can prevail and possibly make this a quick exit for the Blazers. And yet, they are unknowns, and Portland has dependable options in Aldridge and Lillard, with a bulk of their healthy players capable of limiting Gasol and Randolph. No matter what happens, it will be an exciting series, full of question marks surrounding the injured and around those who will be called upon to produce in their stead.
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