The 2014-15 Portland Trail Blazers season ended with a lot of raised eyebrows and questions, and that they finished with a limp was magnified after their superb start to the season. Injuries, depth, and fatigue gradually ate away at the starting players, and by the time the playoffs rolled around, this group looked tired, injured, old, and one could even argue uninterested. It’s been a long time since the Rose City’s finest professional team made a deep postseason run, and even longer since they were considered a championship contender. Injuries can explain away some of the disappointment, but not all of it.
Anyone who has watched this team for any amount of time at all knows how easy it is to get personally involved with their rise or fall. With that in mind we asked five members of OSN’s staff to offer their opinions on what the team should do next, and to answer the most important question of all, is this the roster that can win on the NBA’s biggest stage?
Contributors will be Casey Mabbott (CM), Patrick McEachern (PE), Garrett Thornton (GT), Jared Wright (JW), and Abe Asher (AA).
- Injuries and overall team effort exposed the Trail Blazers in their first round playoff series loss to Memphis. Which issue do you think played a larger role?
(CM) Losses always come back to effort, and while there are ways to explain away this one, I wonder how many fans recall the second round last year, when the team was fully healthy and suffered a similar fate to a comparable opponent. You can bring up stats and star players being on milk cartons, but even if the Blazers were 100% healthy I don’t love their chances against a Grizzlies team at 75%. At this point in the season, every team is banged up and the best remedy is an ice pack and a championship. The playoffs determine who has the heart, drive, and composure to get to the top against the best; and we didn’t see a lot of that from Portland when there was still life in their season. They did make a respectable push once they were in elimination mode, but one has to wonder what they would have looked like giving absolutely everything in games one and two when the series was up for grabs.
(PM) Well, both played huge roles, but, it was all set up by injuries. In particular, the season-ending Achilles injury to Wesley Matthews. Not only did his injury leave the Blazers without one of the premier two-way shooting guards in the NBA, it left them without their heart and soul. Sure, they were able to initially rally behind their fallen comrade, winning 3 of 4 immediately following Matthews’ injury, including a huge road win over the Rockets. But, it just wasn’t a sustainable level for a team who already had a thinning bench. Once Afflalo went down towards the end of the season you could see the wind get sucked right out of their sails.
Getting matched up with a Grizzlies team who whopped up on the Blazers four times during the regular season was seemingly the last straw. At no point in the series did the Blazers look as if they truly believed they could win, and their play proved them absolutely right. So, while a lack of effort may have played a large part in their poor first round performance, it was all set up by those pesky injuries.
(GT) Injuries. The Wesley Matthews injury was the back-breaker of the season. Not only did they lose one of the top two-way players in the entire league, the Blazers seemingly lost their identity with the snap of Matthews’ achillies. Add on top of that, LaMarcus Aldridge was very rarely 100% this season. It was courageous and applauded that he played through an injury, and despite his consistent numbers, he just wasn’t the same person. Yes, the team lacked effort in a few of the playoff games but I think that is more of a side effect of the demoralizing injuries all season.
(JW) Injuries. While the effort was a little slack towards the end of Game 5, keep in mind that even when completely healthy, with all hands on deck, that Memphis team still dominated the Blazers in the regular season. Portland had no chance against Memphis at their best, so I’m not inclined to dump on them for a five-game loss to an excellent Western Conference team; three other teams, most notably the defending champions, suffered the same fate.
(AA) Injuries, no question. If the Blazers were competitive in the series – and the first two games in Memphis ruined them in that respect – their effort absolutely would have been where it needed to be.
That’s not an excuse, of course. Professional athletes, especially in a playoff series, need to give their all. But from very early on in this series, the Blazers knew that they couldn’t win. That feeling, consciously or not, was reflected back throughout the rest of the games.
With Wesley Matthews – and a fully healthy LaMarcus Aldridge – the Blazers might still be playing today.
- LaMarcus Aldridge is expected to demand a max-deal this offseason. Do you think he a) deserves it and then b) can he/will he lead this team to a championship?
(CM) I’ll make this easy – no and no. I have rarely seen the heart and determination that is required of a leader of a championship-level team out of Aldridge and if you don’t have those things, I have a hard time paying you the way those guys are paid. In this league you’re paid well to win, and if money is what counts most to LA, I’d prefer he didn’t stay here since I’m not convinced he has what it takes to play with attitude every game of the postseason. It’s hard to say goodbye to a beloved veteran, especially given the all-time-great showing in the Houston series last season. But it’s fair to say LA and the front office have been disappointed in the bulk of the last nine seasons, and it’s time to stop dancing around that and move on.
(PM) Well, this is an easy question: a) Yes, and b) Yes. First off, there’s no question he not only deserves a max deal, he’s well worth it. By just about any metric he’s a Top 10 player in the league, and he deserves to be paid as such. We’re talking about a guy who finished 7th in the MVP voting, playing through a torn ligament in his thumb for the final 45 games of the season (including the playoffs), all while improving on his points per game, field goal percentage, 3-pointers made, and 3-point percentage over last year’s star-defining season. Judging him on one bad playoff series is just crazy.
As for his ability to lead a team to a championship, this too is a no-brainer. That being said, he can’t do it all alone. Not even Michael Jordan or LeBron James could lead their team to the Promised Land without another Hall of Famer (or two) next to them. We’ve seen him come up big in the playoffs, and with the right complementary players around him, LaMarcus Aldridge is perfectly capable of being a championship quality centerpiece. Whether it happens or not will come down to the further development of Damian Lillard, and whether or not GM Neil Olshey can put the right complimentary pieces around him more so than whether Aldridge is “good enough” to lead this team to a title.
(GT) Absolutely he deserves it. Aldridge is without a doubt, a top 3 power forward in the league, and arguably the best. Plus, a max deal now is a hell of a lot cheaper than a max deal in two years after the salary cap takes a couple huge increases from the expanded TV revenue. Sign Aldridge to a max deal this summer, and that contract will be looked at as one of the value deals in the entire league in a couple years.
(JW) Whether Aldridge deserves it is a question the NBA General Managers will answer with their max offers. Aldridge is good enough for those offers, he expects them, and he’ll get them–including from the Blazers.
The second part of this question is the most interesting. Aldridge must make tweaks to his game in order to help whomever signs him, like shooting less midrange jumpers, adding more threes to his shot selection, and not stop the offense by going one-on-one on that block so much.
If San Antonio does sign him, a few of those issues might be solved; Gregg Popovich preaches movement, even without the ball. The Spurs are also adaptable, so they can live with Aldridge getting a steady diet of post-ups on the block, and be better suited to taking advantage of double-teams in the post than the Blazers, who often stood around watching Aldridge do his thing.
In the end, the championship question is one that’s been asked of second-tier guys like Aldridge before. Dirk Nowitzki won a title in 2011 because he finally had a tough center to protect him, and had shooters around him to punish teams for those inevitable double-teams. Carmelo Anthony never will sniff a title because he needs to play the 4 more, he needs a couple good perimeter defenders to take that burden off on defense, and his team is clueless. Aldridge isn’t as good as Nowitzki, but has the kinds of unique advantages that make him easier to build around than Anthony. In the right situation, he can lead the Blazers to a title. Is that right situation in Portland? That is the real question.
(AA) Yes, LaMarcus Aldridge absolutely deserves a max deal. That’s easy. Aldridge is a perennial all-star, the face of the franchise, and probably one of the top ten players in the NBA. There are fewer players than there are teams at Aldridge’s skill level, and therefore, he’ll get paid.
Can he lead the Blazers to a championship? That’s the question that has haunted the long-term outlook of this franchise since Brandon Roy’s career expired in flames almost a half-decade ago. There’s still no clear answer.
Aldridge, certainly, couldn’t do it by himself, but with Damian Lillard, a healthy Wes Matthews, and a confident Nic Batum? At the end of the 2014 calendar year, you would have said that that group has a real outside chance to win a championship. Now, considering Matthews’ injury, Batum’s uncertain future, and the tenuous nature of Portland’s roster, it seems like there might not be enough firepower in the Aldridge-Lillard combo to reach the promise land.
- There’s no downplaying the fact that this team needs help. In addition to Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, and Arron Afflalo all have expiring contracts. Do you keep the team’s core and add more players, or are there current Blazers you think have run their course and need to be allowed to test the market?
(CM) At their current average age and the end-product we’ve been getting, I’d have a hard time extending max or near-max deals to any Blazer on the roster. Portland likes to pay and over pay to keep fan-favorites, but the lack of playoff wins has to matter (one series win since 2000 for those counting). There is a bevy of free agents expected to hit the market this summer, and I could easily watch a lineup of Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Paul Millsap, Leonard, and DeAndre Jordan taking the court at the Moda Center in 2016. There’s zero chance that team is assembled, but that’s the beauty of free agency, everyone has a price and if Portland is willing to pay for a championship-caliber team, they have an owner with the bank account to make some silly offers to some of the best veterans out there, so why pay silly amounts to veterans that are already not living up to expectations?
(PM) I think bringing back Aldridge is clearly priority #1. If that doesn’t happen, everything changes. But, assuming LaMarcus is back in the fold, it would be tough to argue for anything but bringing back most of the gang. Sure, you have to make your calls to some of the top tier free agents (like, say, Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan), but given Portland’s lackluster history in attracting marquee talent on the open market, those calls are more about doing your due-diligence than actually trying to get them to sign up.
At the end of the day, bringing back Lopez and Matthews makes a ton of sense, not just because of their ability, but, because the way they fit with the team’s two superstars. As for Arron Afflalo, while he had a few nice moments, overall it’s fair to say that he was a disappointment on both sides of the ball for the Blazers. With CJ McCollum’s playoff emergence, the Blazers could definitely find better ways to spend the kind of money that Afflalo will be looking for.
You could make an argument for shopping Batum after his disappointing season, but, his value is likely at an all-time low. Plus, his versatility is a huge part of what the Blazers do. Unless someone knocks their socks off with a trade proposal (unlikely), then it might be best to simply hope he returns to form after taking a summer to rest his banged-up wrist. Everybody else should be (and, likely will be) on the chopping block. If the Blazers can’t convince a big name guy to join the ranks, then they would be wise to take that money originally ear-marked for Afflalo and use it to help bring in upgrades to Chris Kaman, Steve Blake and/or Dorrel Wright.
(GT) I keep this team’s core together at all cost. But when I say core, I am not adding Arron Afflalo into that group. Afflalo came in as a stopgap and disappointed in a lot of ways. That combined with the sudden maturation of CJ McCollum in the playoffs makes Afflalo expendable. As for the other core pieces, you need to keep them together. Terry Stotts runs an offense that is predicated on chemistry and this groups has that in spades. Mess with the core group and you risk upsetting that chemistry and missing out on some of the flow of Stotts’ offense that exists with this group. This team has proven that, when healthy, they are one of the best teams in the league. Two All-Stars, back to back 50 win seasons, chemistry. Those ingredients make this a tough team to break up.
(JW) Keeping the team’s core and adding players around them has been what GM Neil Olshey has tried to do for a couple years now. The starting five, when together and healthy, has been among the very best the NBA has to offer. It’s what’s sitting on the bench that’s held the Blazers back.
Let’s say everybody except Joel Freeland and Dorell Wright re-signs, and that Matthews is at 90% due to lingering effects of that Achilles rupture; he still shoots at 40% from three, but his defense has slipped just a bit. The Blazers would have Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum (in a contract year!), Matthews at 90%, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, an improved CJ McCollum, an improved Meyers Leonard, and Chris Kaman.
Pretty good nine-man rotation, huh? And since the salary cap is expected to jump to the $90 million range, the Blazers could potentially add to that core, and/or replace Batum and Kaman as their contracts expire. If Olshey can pull it off, I’d say keep the band together, than add another rotation piece or two in 2016. The Spurs have finally gotten old, the Thunder are about to crumble, the Rockets have been beaten by the Blazers before, and the Grizzlies are dealing with age and Mike Conley’s annual playoff injuries.
(AA) Add Batum – whose contract expires after next season – and Lillard, who wants a new deal to that list, and that’s every player who matters for the Blazers. If Portland does bring back Aldridge, they can be rejuvenated quickly. If not, then we could be looking at a longer rebuilding process.
But whether or not Aldridge is back next year, the Blazers will have a different look next year. The playoff emergence of Meyers Leonard and CJ McCollum has changed things. Afflalo is gone, and bringing back Lopez now looks like a luxury instead of a necessity.
With Matthews trying to return from an injury that has devastated the careers of so many players before him, the Blazers will most likely re-sign him for a much cheaper price than they would have otherwise. The result is plenty of cap room, regardless of Aldridge and Lillard’s situations, to work on the roster.
- Paul Allen has stated that he is willing to pay and overpay for a championship contender. Which free agents would you target, how much are you willing to spend, and are you willing to abandon a current starter to get the deal worked out?
(CM) If you’re under the age of 30, chances are you have no recollection of the Blazers being a championship contender in the early 90’s. And if you’re under the age of 45, there’s a good chance you don’t have vivid memories of their only championship. I’m right in the middle of those groups, which means I’ve never seen them at their best. So what would I pay to bring a title to Portland? The easy answer is that there isn’t a cap. If Allen will pay it, and a player we need will accept it, Lillard is the only player on the roster I don’t want to see sent packing. If you can get Jordan, Millsap, Butler, Gerald Green, and Greg Monroe here, write that check! It’s likely time to say goodbye to Lopez, Matthews, Blake, Kaman, and Aldridge.
(PM) Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan are the two obvious choices, as both would be massive upgrades (sorry Robin) at the center position, and could finally allow for the Blazers to field a defense that matches their offensive prowess. Gasol would easily be a max guy, while Jordan wouldn’t be far behind. But, again, those are long shots, and as their teams advance farther into the playoffs, it becomes harder and harder to see either leave their current situations.
As for more “gettable” free agents, I think the Blazers would do good to look at guys like Iman Shumpert (restricted), Corey Brewer (player option) or Mike Dunleavy (unrestricted) in that $3 to $5 million range. None of those three will knock your socks off, but, they each could bring things to the table that team has been missing from the bench wing spot in recent years. And, if the Blazers ever do decide to part with Batum in order to upgrade another position, all three could be serviceable starters.
Similarly, guys like Patrick Beverly (restricted), Aaron Brooks (unrestricted) or Blazer-killer Beno Udrih (player option) could likely all be had fairly cheap and would be quality upgrades over Blake. If the Blazers could re-sign Matthews and Lopez, and then use that Afflalo money to add a couple of bench players, this Blazer team might just find itself back in the heart of the Western Conference playoff chase, once again.
(GT) The most important free agent for the Blazers is Aldridge. No question. Then Matthews, then Lopez. Anything outside of that is either wishful thinking, or scrambling to put a team together if those three leave. When I look at this year’s crop of free agents I am pretty underwhelmed. Kevin Love or Brook Lopez might help ease the pain a little if Aldridge leaves, but they are in no way replacements. Greg Monroe really intrigues me. Has a ton of talent, and I’m not sure he has lived up to his potential yet. But those are all big men and if Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews all sign, the big need area for the Blazers is at the small forward position. There isn’t a whole lot to choose from. Maybe Luol Deng if he opts out?? You choices are very limited this summer.
(JW) If Matthews and/or Afflalo isn’t resigned, I’d go after DeMarre Carroll of the Atlanta Hawks, Jae Crowder of the Boston Celtics, and even the restricted free agent out of Milwaukee, Khris Middleton. All three of those guys are 3-and-D types, tough, rangy, and as well-loved by the fans of their current teams as Matthews is here. Matthews at 100% is better than either of those guys…but Wes may not be 100%.
I’d inquire about those guys even if Wes is brought back, but keep in mind that Carroll and Crowder played for playoff teams, with coaches that they admire. Middleton, due to his restricted status, will require the Blazers to overpay to pry him away from the Bucks. I’d definitely bring back Lopez and Aldridge, if only because the alternatives available to Portland aren’t very attractive.
(AA) Pursuing new players is clearly playing second fiddle to retaining current players right now, but yes, it seems like all options are open to the Blazers right in terms of reshaping their roster for 2015-16 and beyond.
No one is untouchable right now except Damian Lillard. Neil Olshey wouldn’t have wanted it going into this season, but he now has plenty of flexibility, and Allen – for all his foibles – has always been committed to winning and more than willing to spend.
It feels like a summer made for Kevin Pritchard, no? The good news is that it seems that the current GM is the next best thing.
- Aldridge is the longest-tenured Trail Blazer, and the undisputed team captain. Is there a situation that makes Portland a better teamwithout him on the roster?
(CM) Only if the team gets the right combination of free agents to go with their young core of Lillard, McCollum, and Leonard. All three are immensely talented and have only begun to show their peak abilities whereas Aldridge is about to be on the wrong side of 30 and has never lived up to the expectations thrust on him over nine years. LA is seemingly a great guy, but has consistently questioned where the team is headed and probably would prefer to head home to Dallas next year regardless of what Portland does. If Aldridge wants to stay and play alongside a great defensive center like Jordan, we’re all ears and Allen should sign the player(s) that will either help or replace Aldridge and bring this city its next title.
(PM) No. Definitely not next year. At least no realistic scenario (i.e. LeBron to Portland!). I said it before and I’ll say it again: he finished 7th in the MVP voting for a reason. Any scenario where the L-Train leaves town is leading to a rebuild. That means that Matthews and Lopez are likely right behind him out the door, in order to clear copious amounts of playing time for our “new big 3” of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard.
Sure, that’d leave you with tons of cap space to go after a max-level player, but, no matter which way you look at it, it’d likely be at least two or three years before the Blazers were ready to compete at the same level that they are today. And, that’s assuming you’d even be able to convince a max-level guy to sign up, which, as any tenured Blazer fan can attest, is far from a sure thing. That’s why if you want playoff basketball in Rip City again next season, you better hope and pray that LaMarcus Aldridge finds his way back home.
(GT) Not right away. No way. John Canzano of the Oregonian wrote, “I like Aldridge’s game. I like Aldridge as a person. But I left this first-round series convinced it’s the Blazers, not Aldridge, who need the change of scenery. I went from believing Portland was going to be lost without him to wondering if they’d instead soar.” I think this is a little bit of sensationalism. Yes, if Aldridge were to leave the Blazers can rebuild and return to being a contender. But soar? That’s a little much. He is one of the best power forwards in the game. It is crazy to think that the Blazers would be better without him. To take one of the best players in the league off of a team isn’t your typical “addition by subtraction.” Yes, the Blazers can build around Damian Lillard. Yes, Allen has a lot of money to attract talented players to Portland. No, the Blazers would not be a better team next season without Aldridge than they would with him.
(JW) Unless that situation involves LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Anthony Davis, then no.
(AA) Sure. If this is all about winning a championship, there’s a fair chance that Portland will have a better shot in the post-Aldridge era than the Aldridge era. But there’s a better chance that Portland will fade into obscurity without their star man, and that’s what’s so frightening about the possibility of losing the face of the franchise.
The Blazers will do everything in their power to keep Aldridge. If he decides to leave, then Portland will have to pick up the pieces and move forward – just as they did when Roy retired, leading eventually to Lillard and this current team, which had a better championship outlook than the Roy teams before it. You just never know.
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