If you’re an Oregon sports fan, and you frequent sites like this, chances are you’ve read dozens of articles about the Portland Trail Blazers’ free agents. You’ve seen every argument for and against keeping this player or that player, heard every opinion about whether the Blazers have the core to go all the way (they do, but there’s this thing called “luck” that every team needs to win it all. The Blazers haven’t had much of it throughout their history), and you, like everybody else, can’t wait until July, just to get all the worrying and obsessing over with.
One thing I haven’t read enough of is who the Blazers will be targeting in free agency. After all, pretty much everybody except Nicolas Batum and the guys on rookie deals will be free agents, and Chris Kaman’s deal is only partially guaranteed for 2015-16, meaning that Air Sasquatch could easily be let go if the Blazers can coax players better than him to Rip City. This is why Neil Olshey, the General Manager for the Blazers, couldn’t wait to get started this offseason.
Remaking the team, or bringing back most of last season’s team, would be preferable to a total rebuild. Tearing down a roster for failing to survive the Western Conference death gauntlet for two seasons is asinine; the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, and Memphis Grizzlies all would have been deconstructed by now if they were held to that standard.
Not that things shouldn’t change. All of those teams changed coaches and got new ownership, and they brought in auxiliary players that fit well with their stars. They all experienced bumps in the road, but they had the skill, leadership and luck needed to survive in the playoffs. Memphis, the team that eliminated Portland in the first round, had been particularly impressive before the Warriors woke up and took them out.
Continuity is as key to contending as raw talent; the Spurs are the shining example of continuity, with the Grizzlies in second and the Houston Rockets in dead last. (Though the Rockets did come back from being down 1-3 to beat the Clippers. That’s more a symptom of the Clippers’ starters finally wearing down, but the Rockets did sleepwalk through the first four games of that series.)
So, adding a so-called “third star” shouldn’t be necessary, as long as the Blazers get better at doing what they do–keep in mind that LaMarcus Aldridge is the only member of last year’s starting lineup who’ll be 30 when next season starts. Time is still Portland’s ally, but the capricious nature of NBA players, and Aldridge’s love for warm weather, are not.
Today, I’ll take a look at wings and backup point guards. Next week will be a look at big men.
(All stats from regular season, and courtesy of NBA.com)
DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta Hawks
Season Stats: 12.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, 48.7% FG%, 39.5% 3PT%, 5.7 Net Rating
Age: 29 at start of next season
Pros: Carroll is a 3-and-D guy to the core. He shoots the three at a near-elite level, and defends the three-point line excellently, with a -4.3 Diff% when the guy he’s defending shoots a three. That means that defenders shooting threes in the regular season shot -4.3% less than their usual average when Carroll was in their grill.
Not surprising, since Carroll’s a 6-8 dude with long arms and a nasty disposition. Think Wesley Matthews on defense, only taller and not as disciplined.
Cons: Carroll shot that well from three because he got a ton of open shots. Of his 4.3 attempts from three in the regular season, 3.7 of them were without a defender within four feet of him. The Blazers’ offense isn’t as adept as the Hawks’ at generating open threes, and Carroll also benefited from playing alongside a defense-bending force in Kyle Korver, who’s tied with Stephen Curry as the best shooter in the NBA today.
If another team pries Carroll away from the Hawks, that team does so with the understanding that Carroll might have already peaked as an offensive player.
Verdict: I can’t see Carroll leaving his position as a starter on a 60-win team to come to Portland and fight Matthews, who’s as beloved here as Carroll is in Atlanta, for a starting job on a 51-win team. I also expect the Hawks to retain Carroll, even if it means paying a player who basically defends and shoots threes eight figures per year.
Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics (Restricted)
Season Stats: 20.1 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 42% FG%, 29.5 3PT%, 2.8 Net Rating
Age: 25 at start of next season
Pros: Crowder’s a guy straight out of the Wesley Matthews mold: a sturdy 6-6, 235, built like a football player, with an attitude to match. His defense has improved while playing out of position, as Avery Bradley has taken many of the minutes available at shooting guard.
Crowder also went to college at Marquette, and the pedigree for shooting guards who went to Marquette is very impressive. Dwyane Wade went from a possible injury bust to a top-40 player all time, Matthews went from undrafted to a valued member of a playoff team, and Jimmy Butler went from a late-first round pick to an All-Star.
He may not be very good now, but Crowder will bust his butt to improve, just like Matthews did when he arrived in Portland five years ago.
Cons: For a team looking to launch itself into the title picture, Crowder may be more of a hindrance than a help. His three-point shooting stood at under 30%, a foul mark for a perimeter player. He also had to learn defense on the fly, and against the likes of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, DeMar DeRozen, and other top wing scorers.
His inability to earn more than 20 minutes a game in Boston’s talent-starved rotation is also a matter of some concern.
Verdict: When the Blazers signed Matthews away from the Utah Jazz five years ago, the league’s understanding of how valuable guys like him are was still in its infancy. The Matthews deal went from being a gross overpay to a criminal value in the space of three years, and any deal Crowder signs could become that kind of bargain.
Unfortunately, the Celtics front office is amongst the NBA’s savviest. Any chance of snatching Crowder for cheap, assuming the Blazers would even want him, is basically nil, especially given Crowder’s status as a restricted free agent.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls (Restricted)
Season Stats: 20 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 46% FG%, 38% 3PT%, 4.1 Net Rating
Age: 26 at start of next season
Pros: What’s not to like about Jimmy Butler? He’s long, fast, tenacious, starting his prime years, able to play 40 minutes a game (though with any player, that’s usually unwise), can shoot the three very well, is able to create his own offense in a pinch, and also happens to be an elite defender.
Anytime a guy like Butler goes on the market, even under restricted status, everybody takes note.
Cons: That restricted status means that Chicago has the right to match any offer made to Butler three days after it’s made. The Bulls are hoping to lowball Butler a little by making a team offer a four-year deal, then matching it. Butler is eligible for a five-year deal, but the Bulls are a somewhat cheap organization.
The Los Angeles Lakers are reportedly looking to make Butler an offer, but that’ll just play into the Bulls’ hands. If I were a general manager, I’d not touch Butler with a ten-foot pole, hoping that this issue, combined with the Chicago front office looking to get rid of coach Tom Thibodeau, would cause Butler to sign a one-year qualifying offer, enabling him to enter free-agency next year.
Next year, the contracts will be more lucrative, and Butler would be unrestricted, enabling him to get away from the Bulls if he so chose.
Don’t count on this, though; Butler represents the only reliable source of offense the Bulls have, and he happens to be their best perimeter defender as well. The Bulls front office might be stubborn, but they aren’t stupid.
Verdict: No chance in hell for the Blazers to sign Butler, but it’s always worth it to pick up the phone and make a pitch. You never know.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Dallas Mavericks (Player Option)
Season Stats: 18.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.8 APG, 41% FG%, 27% 3PT%, 5.7 Net Rating
Age: 25 at start of next season
Pros: Aminu stands a rangy 6-9, with the speed to cover wing players. He’s also big enough to not get caught in a bad switch when the perimeter player he’s guarding runs a pick-and-roll with a big, and the Mavericks decide to switch defenders. As long as said big isn’t in the Zach Randolph/LaMarcus Aldridge league of post players, Aminu can hold his own down low.
Looking at his defensive stats, Aminu curiously allows opponents to shoot much lower percentages within 10 feet of the basket than usual. That shows an ability to slide off screens, stay with the man who’s driving, and be enough of an irritant at the rim to make the shot go awry. His three-point defense needs work, but Aminu was a very good defender playing with guys who were undersized, old, or clueless.
Tyson Chandler and Aminu aren’t enough to craft a good defense, which is why the Houston Rockets bounced them with ease in the first round.
Cons: For all his usefulness on defense, Aminu only played 18 minutes a game last season because he can’t score. At all.
The shooting percentages above don’t tell enough of the story. He can’t make a three unless he’s WIDE open; his catch-and-shoot percentage, from every part of the floor, is plain awful at 26%, and teams completely ignore him so they can clog up the paint.
Unless he’s shooting right at the rim (dunks, layups, and such), Aminu is a complete offensive non-entity.
Verdict: The Grizzlies’ Tony Allen has a job in the NBA because he’s obsessed with defense. Even though Allen has no offensive game, he’s still smart enough to scrounge for garbage points by cutting to the rim, and either catching a smart pass and laying it in or snaring an offensive rebound, and putting it back in the hoop.
Aminu’s still pretty young, so assuming he declines his player option, the Blazers might want to take a look at him. Playing him will require coach Terry Stotts to reconfigure his offense, but the possible defensive benefits could outweigh those concerns.
Whomever signs Aminu this offseason should lock him in a room and force-feed him Tony Allen tapes. That’s his avenue to long-term success in the NBA if he never develops a consistent three-point shot.
Patrick Beverly, Houston Rockets (Restricted)
Season Stats: 10.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 38% FG%, 35% 3PT%, 2.2 Net Rating
Age: 27 at start of next season
Pros: Beverly is a 3-and-D by broad classification, even if the “3” part fell off a bit this season. The D, though, is as tough as ever; Beverly is at once a pugnacious bulldog and a slippery eel, sliding through screens like he’s covered in grease before sticking to his man like he’s covered in glue.
Providing the defense-first counterweight to James Harden’s hipster-like offensive game (just threes, free throws, and a huge beard) has gotten Beverly noticed, and might get him paid.
Cons: Beverly’s three-point percentage is below-average. 35% is enough to draw a defender when Beverly has a good look, but if that defender has to choose between letting Beverly shoot, or letting Harden get loose and cause havoc, defenses will let Beverly shoot. He’s not been making them pay as often as Houston needs him to.
Three-point shooting is really his only way to provide offense as well; the percentages at the rim and in the paint (47% and 42%, respectively) are pathetic. His lack of NBA size and athleticism means he’ll never be a good finisher at the rim, and his rudimentary dribbling skills usually don’t let him drive by a defender closing out hard on his three-point shot.
Verdict: I doubt Houston lets him go. Not only do they have the advantage of Beverly’s restricted status, he’s the only good perimeter defender on the team. They’ll bet that Beverly’s fall-off from three is only temporary.
Jeremy Lin, Los Angeles Lakers
Season Stats: 11.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 42% FG%, 37% 3PT%, Net Rating -6.7
Age: 27 at start of next season
Pros: Lin is the opposite of Beverly on the point guard spectrum: all offense, almost no defense. One reason why the Rockets picked up both Lin and Beverly was to take advantage of this dynamic, and while Lin didn’t work out for them, that’s due to James Harden playing tons of minutes, and needing the ball for every single one of those minutes.
Lin can run the pick-and-roll, shoot an above-average percentage from three, and run an offense for the 15 or so minutes your starting point guard is resting on the bench. He was miscast as a starter on that putrid Lakers team, and now he finally gets to escape the stigma of the “poison pill” contract he signed with Houston, which grossly overpaid him in specific years to discourage the New York Knicks, who had Lin’s rights at the time, to match.
Cons: The lack of defensive ability is why Lin can’t be a long-term starter in the NBA, but he does have a few issues on offense as well. He tends to dominate the ball, sometimes flailing out of control at the rim or jacking a contested long two with 15 seconds in the shot clock.
He is inefficient, and dribbles excessively; over 54% of his field-goal attempts came after three or more dribbles, though I’ll be kind and lay that at the feet of Byron Scott and that horrendous Lakers roster, forcing Lin to create any offense he can. Lin’s pretty much a bigger, slower Mo Williams. Whether that’s a good or bad thing depends on how particular Blazers fans view Mo’s time in Rip City.
Verdict: Assuming he can be had for the $5-7 million range (about mid-level exception money), Lin represents an affordable upgrade over Steve Blake on offense. If C.J. McCollum is no more than a flash in the pan, Lin can do what McCollum did in the playoffs this year.
With Lillard’s issues on defense, though, I’m not sure if Neil Olshey’s willing to have another total defensive liability at the point. Lin’s a guy to watch on the market this offseason.
Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (Player Option)
Season Stats: 18.9 MPG, 7.7 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.8 APG, 48% FG%, 27% 3PT%, Net Rating 0.2
Age: 33 at start of next season
Pros: Modern NBA defensive schemes are designed to take away the shots modern NBA offenses try to create: threes, shots at the rim, and free throws. Most NBA players, of all sizes and positions, have learned to specialize in either shooting threes or rim attacks. Unless you’re one of the 20 or so top players in the world, specialization is usually how you stick on an NBA team.
For those young folks reading, there’s one fact about the world you need to know: there are exceptions to every rule, whether it’s a rule of society, physics, or games. Beno Udrih is a player that feasts on midrange shots, usually after pulling up during a common pick-and-roll. If you’ve watched the Blazers’ playoff games, chances are you’ve seen Udrih take advantage of Portland’s super-conservative defense and toast them from midrange.
In addition to his sterling accuracy from midrange (51%), Udrih shot 73-112 in the regular season from the restricted area. That translates to 65% (!!!), an obscene number that you usually only see amongst the likes of DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler, big guys that only have one offensive move–dunk.
Cons: Unfortunately, that horrid three-point shooting is quite the buzz killer. Udrih only attempted 97 threes last season, but since he only made 26 of them, the Grizzlies were probably happy he didn’t jack more.
Udrih sometimes uses his veteran savvy, and the collective high IQ of his teammates, to make smart passes, but he’s not a natural distributor. That lack of skill, combined with his inability to play defense, means he isn’t fit for more than the 19 or so minutes per game he played in the regular season.
Verdict: While it would be somewhat ironic to add a notorious Blazer-killer to the Blazers’ roster, Udrih has found a home in Memphis. Whether he picks up his player option to remain in the Grindhouse, or signs a longer-term deal (unlikely given his age), I expect him to stay a Grizzly, and to continue tormenting the Trail Blazers’ fans.
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (Restricted)
Season Stats: 13.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 47% FG%, 41% 3PT%, 86% FT%, 6.9 Net Rating
Age: 24 at start of next season
Pros: Middleton is basically a taller, younger, healthier Wes Matthews, without the bruising post game. His catch-and-shoot percentage when shooting threes is a sterling 42% (and he takes the vast majority of his threes right after the catch), his shooting within 10 feet is also superb (57%), he makes a high percentage of his free-throws, and he’s a part of that ultra-long, sneaky-fast, and endlessly energetic Bucks defense that frustrated everybody that came into contact with it.
If the Bucks do bring him back, it’ll be an enviable position they’ll be in. Jabari Parker will be back, and most folks don’t know whether he’ll play the 3 or the 4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, known as the Greek Freak, plays mostly at the 3, though his own positional ambiguity may see him play alongside Parker at the wings.
Meanwhile, Middleton will be backing them up, ready to soak up any minutes those two prodigies leave for him at the wings. Here’s hoping Jason Kidd finds this guy the minutes he deserves; Middleton did an outstanding job filling in for Parker after he tore his ACL in December.
Cons: The only negative I can think of is that Middleton came out of nowhere, in a contract year. Professional athletes in general are notorious for only producing big numbers when there’s big money on the line, but this is probably most true in basketball.
In baseball, they give out huge contracts due to the lack of a salary cap. In football, huge contracts are only given out to true superstars or at least above-average quarterbacks; any GM that breaks this rule is bound to get a boot out the door in short order.
Since the NBA has a salary cap, and since basketball isn’t nowhere near as violent as football, its players occupy that sweet spot where, if a GM is smart, he can squeeze maximum value out of the money he spends on a player. Baseball and football contracts, unless they’re rookie-scale deals, are almost always bad in one way or another. You don’t see as much of that in basketball anymore.
Middleton, though, is going to be an interesting case. He’s the kind of guy a team absolutely needs to contend in the NBA, but agents are going to make teams pay for the privilege of employing him. If the number is too high, it could stop the Bucks from finding the other pieces they need to really make hay.
The year he had demands a huge raise, from Milwaukee or anybody that can pry him loose with a sick Godfather offer. The worry here is that it’ll be too much, and Middleton either regresses to the mean, or simply can’t live up to the deal.
Verdict: I expect the Bucks to keep Middleton. I also expect Olshey to inquire about Middleton, whether for a trade or for a free-agent offer. Going after him would require forfeiting the pursuit of Matthews for awhile, and due to Middleton’s restricted status, the gambit stands a good chance of failing.
Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
Season Stats: 11.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2 APG, 43.6% FG%, 42% 3PT%, 9.9 Net Rating
Age: 28 at start of next season
Pros: Green is an established 3-and-D player, and has been groomed in the basketball academy that is the Spurs. The three-point shooting speaks for itself, but his accuracy from the corners needs to be mentioned. Green shot 47% from the three-point corners, including a sick 55% from the right corner.
Also, while his fellow wing Kawhi Leonard gets the highlights and accolades (including Defensive Player of the Year, despite missing 25% of the season…everybody’s falling into the “Hipster Trap” of glorifying obscure or esoteric concepts where Leonard’s concerned. Draymond Green or Anthony Davis would have been better picks), Green’s often the one guarding the likes of Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry so Tony Parker doesn’t have to, and so Leonard can save his energy until the fourth quarter.
Green is the yeoman of the Spurs machine, and for the right price, and in the right place, he can be another team’s yeoman as well.
Cons: The “right place” critique, though, has merit. After all, even the Spurs gave up on this guy before; it wasn’t until a much-needed attitude adjustment (© John Cena…and I liked that move better when he called it the FU) and a lesson on shooting threes that San Antonio decided to keep him around. It’s paid off for them, but the Spurs play like nobody else can in the NBA.
If a GM is going to poach a player from the Spurs’ system, they’ll have to keep in mind that the player likely won’t reach the level of play again. That risk does apply to Green.
Verdict: Regardless of Matthews’ situation, I think the Blazers should go after Green. After all, the Spurs are at the center of all the trendy LaMarcus Aldridge rumors. Why not poach a key cog of the Spurs’ machine?
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