Portland Trail Blazers general manager Neil Olshey has constructed a roster that’s appeared in back to back postseasons, and secured the franchise’s first trip to the conference semifinals since the year 2000. But with no guarantees that all five members of the previous two seasons’ starting lineup will return next year, and the pending contract negotiations of both Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum, there is gray looming on the horizon.
With just their first-round selection this year, and no picks in the 2016 draft, this could be the Blazers’ best bet to reload the roster organically, while using free agency for upgrades and positions of need.
Oregon Sports News’ Bryant Knox and Casey Mabbott have been living as the Matthew Dellavedova’s of the OSN research department, and are here to discuss the team’s best bets in this year’s well-rounded draft, and whom they see as the key additions to get this team to the next level.
What needs must the Trail Blazers address in the draft?
Casey Mabbott (CM): Depth and/or replacements at small forward and shooting guard are the priority, but center can’t be ignored either as the two, three, and five spots were routinely the weak link on Portland’s roster last season when the starter’s production took a dip or an injury kept them off of the floor entirely. Sam Dekker and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are two examples of players who should be available at #23 and both fit the bill of a three, but using a swingman at the two can’t be considered ideal. Either option would be an additional risk as neither has been a two-way player in the past, but the coaching staff can absolutely coax that out of them given enough time. I suppose the bigger question is if the fanbase is willing to tolerate another “project” player since it appears that Nic Batum is losing favor with those same fans? The goal is absolutely to get an instant impact player, but those aren’t always available in the final third of the first round. If there’s one thing Portland has been shy on in recent years, it’s starting-quality players behind the starters.
Bryant Knox (BK): Shooting off the bench is becoming less crucial to add with the development of CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard. Point guard also isn’t a top priority, as the team has a young prospect it can commit to in Tim Frazier if it believes he can fit the system. That leaves depth at small forward and power forward. Perimeter defense and low-post defense are two areas that must improve, but so is scoring from both positions. The Blazers have been one of the worst teams (sometimes dead last) when it comes to scoring off the pine the past few seasons, but if they believe in the maturation of McCollum and Leonard, defense becomes the priority.
Who is the one player Portland should have its eyes on before June 25?
CM: Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell, and Justise Winslow are the players Portland would draft if they had a lottery pick, but they don’t. Frank Kaminsky and Willie Caulie-Stein are a pair of 7’ forwards that can play center, and neither are expected to be taken in the top ten selections, but they’re not going to last past the late teens of the draft either. Portland needs to watch Stanley Johnson and RJ Hunter, and hope a slew of talented guards and forwards skews the board in their favor. Johnson is projected as a top-15 player, and Hunter a top-20, so there’s a chance that Portland gets lucky and snags an impact player with lots of upside at #23. If both of those players are gone when Portland makes their selection, Dekker and his high offensive ceiling is the way to go.
BK: There’s one name that’s attached to Portland in mock drafts everywhere: Montrezl Harrell. Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman recently stated, “Harrell ultimately projects as a frontcourt energizer—a big man who finishes, rebounds, plays physical defense and makes plays around the basket without needing touches.” When you think Harrell, think Thomas Robinson 2.0. He’s the kind of player who can come in and swing a game in your direction with energy, and if he’s not too eager to average double-digit scoring early in his career, he’ll be a solid addition to a squad that needs depth at power forward.
Who is Plan B if that player is gone?
CM: Plan B should be RHJ, he’s a skilled defender even if he brings little offensively. Portland needs to get most of their scoring from the one, two, and four positions, anything they can get from the three and five as well as the sixth man is gravy, but they’ll need a plan B not only for draft night but also for their defensive team-heartbeat if Matthews and/or Batum aren’t on the roster in 2015-16. It may not be the most glamorous of selections, and there’s the risk that RHJ is more Michael Kidd-Gilchrist than Scottie Pippen, but the potential to get a future NBA All-Defensive team selection is worth rolling the dice this late in the round.
BK: Justin Anderson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson would be two vastly different players who could fill the Blazers’ backup small forward spot. Anderson, a lights-out shooter, would give the team another offensive striker off the pine. RHJ, a defensive juggernaut, would provide a lockdown presence on the perimeter. But assuming Anderson is gone, and to avoid overlap of Casey’s excellent analysis on RHJ, we’ll say Portland should have its eye on Delon Wright. It’s true that the younger brother of Dorell Wright negates my earlier point about adding a floor general, but if the team decides that perimeter defense is necessary behind Lillard, Wright’s your guy. He was a top-five player in back-to-back seasons when it comes to defensive win shares, according to Sports-Reference.com, and he’d complement McCollum well in the second unit.
Should the Blazers draft for need or talent with the 23rd pick?
CM: The odds are against you that you’re getting a cornerstone talent at #23, but it has happened before. They should draft whoever is most talented left on the board and hope they contribute in the short-term and eventually develop into a starting role here, regardless of position. While it would be great to fill the needs with one pick, it just isn’t likely that you find a big or a swingman with established offensive and defensive skills that late in the first round.
BK: This debate is always tricky. Do you fill a need with the understanding that top-tier talent has disappeared from the board? Or do you grab the best available second-tier prospect, knowing that there’s only third- or fourth-tier players left at a particular position? The argument for talent is more relevant in the lottery when passing on the best player available becomes a bigger gamble. Late in the first round, the difference between the best player and the second-best player is less significant. Draft with the roster in mind, as relying on free agency is always a gamble for a small-market team in the soggy Northwest.
Is there a sleeper Portland might consider reaching for with its first-round pick?
CM: Syracuse’s Chris McCullough is coming off a season-ending knee injury and has seen his draft stock go way down as a result. Before the injury, he was averaging 9 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals per game. If those numbers aren’t late-first round worthy, I don’t know where the line is, but I will add that guys with knee issues in Portland give me pause. If not for the knee issue those numbers would put him in front of RHJ in my mind even though they don’t play the same position. But the depth at forward and center has the potential to be log-jammed if Aldridge, Lopez, Leonard, Kaman, and Freeland are all back in Portland next season, and in that case you need to use the pick elsewhere given that McCullough isn’t likely to be the most talented (or even the most healthy for that matter) when Portland is on the clock.
BK: Second-round talent is deemed as such for a reason. However, if Harrell is gone and the Blazers want a power forward, LSU’s Jordan Mickey could be worth the reach. As Wasserman stated (linked above), “Jordan Mickey led the country in shot-blocking, flashing unteachable defensive instincts and a terrific 37 ½” max vertical. He was also excellent during five-on-fives at the combine. Mickey has the potential to become a pick-and-pop forward who also protects the rim.” If that potential dual-threat description comes to fruition, the 6’8” big man is well worth dipping into the early-second-round pool.
Neil Olshey has mentioned that the team will look to be ‘very active’ in this year’s draft. Which player(s) would you be willing to move in order to obtain a top-10 pick? Is there a scenario where you picture the Blazers moving down, or even out of the draft?
CM: Offer up Batum, selection #23, and your 2017 first rounder if you have to, top-8 protected if they’ll agree. This is Portland’s year to make the leap, Aldridge isn’t getting younger and you don’t know what happens to Lopez’s fragile frame going forward. You know you don’t have a superstar to send in a trade package if LA or Minnesota are willing to talk, but if Philadelphia or New York are interested in a swingman with an expiring contract, toss in an expendable veteran or cash if need be to get a shot at a talent like Okafor, Winslow, Kaminsky, or Johnson. I’d say you leave the extra first rounder out of the equation if Okafor is off the board, but then again, Winslow has the potential to be a top-5 talent in the next couple of years, and small forward is a position of need, so why not go and get him now?
BK: If there’s a team in the top five willing to trade its pick for a jack-of-all trades swingman who could realistically take his game to another level on a rebuilding franchise, the Blazers need to send Nicolas Batum their way. Quite frankly, Neil Olshey would be smart to consider that deal for any team in the lottery willing to talk turkey. As for moving down or out, Portland could certainly look to acquire a veteran who could contribute late in the rotation during a run at a title. Any rebuilding squad willing to do a veteran a favor could send him to Portland for No. 23, but with so much change on the horizon for the Blazers in free agency, I can’t see a player worth acquiring at this point in the process.
Final draft-night predictions:
CM: Portland drafts Sam Dekker. They should probably take a chance on a defensive player like RHJ or go all-in to trade up and get a blue-chip player, but with an array of talent available this summer and a good collection of restricted players on top of that willing to sign offer sheets, this is Portland’s summer. They’ll be aggressive but they also know the draft is not their best or sole opportunity to upgrade the talent pool in Portland this offseason, and Dekker is a “safe” selection and has an offensive game they can use whether it comes from the starting five or the second unit.
BK: Neil Olshey has spent the past few seasons trading away second-round draft picks and cashing in on unwanted talent. This could be the year he does just the opposite. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the GM swaps his late first-rounder for an even later first-rounder and a future second-round pick. If Harrell is still available at 23, expect the Blazers to take the power forward. But if he’s not, Olshey should go into asset collection mode, grabbing bargaining chips with future moves in mind.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
