We could go ahead an overanalyze Sunday’s AFC Championship game to no end. We could talk about every single player on both sides, every past matchup, and run computer simulations of the game 100 times and average the outcomes.
But after a lot of thought, we’ve decided to spend 10 minutes making a list of politically incorrect stereotypes about Baltimore and start an Internet war a while looking at the one matchup with the most significance: Big Ben vs. Joe Cool.
Looking at this game, the thing that will obviously stick out is the play of the defenses. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have the two best defenses in the NFL. Any QB going against one of them is going to have his hands full. Baltimore has forced tons of turnovers. We love to poke fun at Ray Lewis, but he’s a warrior and we respect his play on a football field as much as anybody. Same goes for Ed Reed…we’re even on record saying that we’d have voted for Ed Reed as NFL MVP. This guys are gamers that nobody wants to see lining up across the ball.
But…and this is a big but….the Steelers defense is no slouch either. In fact, they are actually better (GASP!) A lot of the talk this week has been about how the Ravens defense could will Baltimore to a Super Bowl. That’s nice and all, but the Steelers boast a unit that has been better from week one. They put up better numbers and won more games. They are also playing at home and healthier than the Ravens.
So we’ll be kind and say that the defenses cancel each other out. You can believe that if you want.
That leaves the game up to who has the better offense. Neither is particularly impressive, and we think that the whole game will most likely hinge on QB play. With a pair of nasty, turnover-seeking defenses, the QB who is smart with the ball and makes a few plays will most likely be walking out of Heinz Field with the Lamar Hunt trophy.
So which QB is going to play better?
On one hand, you have Joe Flacco. We expected him to suck and were surprised he didn’t this year. We make elementary jokes about him too, but he’s had an average year which is more than Baltimore is used to. Making Flacco out to be Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is a mistake. We’ve read too many columns and blog posts talking about how good Flacco is. He’s basically doing the same thing Roethlisberger did his rookie year: manage the freaking game, which means going three and out is a successful drive. Not to knock Flacco too much, but their are 20+ QB’s in the league who could easily have had the year he just had. 5 Golden Rings agrees. We have a sinking feeling that having a guy like Flacco at QB is going to catch up with the Ravens, either on Sunday or in the Super Bowl if they advance. If Ravens fans were honest, they’re worried about him on Sunday too. They have to be.
Fat Ben also had an average year though. After an MVP-type season last year, Ben regressed and actually posted a lower QB rating than Flacco’s (80.1 to 80.3). Ouch. The pair’s numbers were actually pretty comparable during the regular season. We get that Ravens fans…they basically had the same year.
The HUGE difference between the two is that Roethlisberger has been in the league for four more seasons than Flacco and has a lot of playoff experience. Sure, Flacco has won two games, but he’s only completed 20 passes in postseason play and hasn’t looked particularly sharp doing it either. Roethlisberger has singlehandedly won some playoff games in his career, and oh yeah, won a Super Bowl as well. This will be Flacco’s 3rd time facing Dick LeBeau’s torturous defense. He completed less than 40% of his passes and had a QB rating of 22 last meeting. Roethlisberger has played Baltimore a bunch of times and thrown over 100 touchdowns in the NFL. This will be his third AFC championship game.
The bottom line is we would be shocked if Flacco won this game by himself…with either a stellar performance or a last minute drive. Roethlisberger? Not so much.
The only way Baltimore wins this game is if they score a defensive touchdown or a special teams touchdown. Quote us on that.
In a game where so many parts of the two teams are so similar, there is a giant gap at QB and nobody is talking about it. We don’t care if their numbers from this season are similar; if you know football, you understand that playoff football is a different beast.
If you have to win one game against a great defense and you can pick between Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisberger, who would you take?
We know our answer.
Steelers 24 Ravens 16
This post would have been longer, but our dad will be home from work any minute and needs his laptop back.
Here we go Steelers.
Who do you think is going to win the game and why? Let us know in the comments.
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