While most people in and around the world of college football expected the Oregon Ducks to take a bit of step back after losing Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Marcus Mariota to the NFL, expectations have reached a point in Eugene where they are expected to win every game. That may not be entirely fair, but, so is life in the top echelon of college football.
So when the Ducks came up just short last Saturday in East Lansing against the #5 ranked Michigan State Spartans, there were a lot of Nike-adorned heads hanging low around the state of Oregon. It was the kind of loss that can not only takes the wind out of your sails as a fan, but, then simultaneously fuels the fires of negativity that inevitably lie within the deepest and darkest dungeons of even the most optimistic fans soul.
Maybe all the naysayers were right. Maybe this is the year that the Ducks’ glorious run among the national elite finally comes crashing down. Maybe, the window has closed, and it’s time to embrace the ups and downs of the sport that were the staple of the decade or so before Chip Kelly swooped and tossed this feathered fan-base atop their now lofty perch above all but the very select few in the sport.
All of that may be true. But (and here’s where it gets crazy), it also may not be true. Mind blowing, huh?
But, that’s what sports fandom is all about. Finding the optimism in disappointing results, then twisting it into the sort of bizarre confidence that only deranged fanaticism can create. Certainly there are points where the optimism starts bleeding into delusion, but, (so far at least) we’re not quite there with Oregon football. Maybe it’s coming, or maybe it’s not, but, while we wait to find out for certain, let’s bathe in that optimistic fountain of football future.
For there are not just one, but, four huge, undeniable and perfectly defensible reasons why the future is bright and full of optimism for even the most dower of nega-Ducks. Beginning first with the biggest and best reason of them all…
The College Football Playoff
First and foremost on the list of reasons for optimism is the sports shiny new slightly-used toy: The College Football Playoff. After years of (non-SEC) contenders lamenting the season’s first loss as a death knell to their championship hopes and dreams, the new playoff format has offered a reprieve from the near-impossible chase for perfection.
Sure, there were plenty of 1-loss national champions throughout the years, but, up until last year the only way to ensure your spot in the big game was to run the table (sorry Auburn). With the introduction of the 4-team playoff format, though, winning one of the five major conferences puts you in prime position for a chance to play for the crystal football. Sure, Baylor got left out last year, but, that was in large part due to their absolutely abysmal non-conference slate. Which bring up reason #2….
The Ducks Loss in East Lansing is Better Than Most Team’s Best Non-Conference Wins
This may seem like hyperbole at first glance, but, if you take a moment to peruse the average power conference team’s out-of-conference schedule, it starts to make some sense. That’s before we even discuss College Football Playoff Selection Committee Chairman Jeff Long’s post-rankings show interviews, in which he consistently stated that big wins and bad losses were the two biggest factors they used when determining the rankings. While true that Oregon lost a chance at securing college football’s single-best win on Saturday, in the process it managed to snag a dubious, but very important, honor: college football’s best loss.
While there isn’t an official “point system” used by the selection committee (that we know of, at least!), it’s clear that they don’t ding teams too much for losing tough, hard-fought games on the road against top 10 teams (see: Mississippi St losing to Alabama, and only dropping to #4), and they give virtually no weight to wins over unranked opponents (see: Baylor, just about every week).
So, while there are dozens of teams still undefeated in the most technical sense of the word, there are only a very, very select few who have a win that likely even registered on the selection committee’s radar. Meanwhile, Oregon played neck-and-neck with the #5 ranked team in all of college football, on the road, with a quarterback with just over a month in the system, and a broken finger on his throwing hand. Which leads me to reason #3…
Vernon Adams is Only Going to Get Better as the Season Continues
Yes, the savior of Oregon football couldn’t quite get the job done in East Lansing, but, dangit if he didn’t come close. He was one missed Byron Marshall bomb away from taking the lead in the final minutes, and despite that, was still a 4th down completion to an (fairly) open Bralon Addison away from potentially setting up a game-tying field goal or game-winning touchdown. Simply put: it was this close to being a very different result. Even if Adams overall performance was a bit uneven (to say the least) and left some things to be desired.
But, if Duck fans can take anything from his performance it’s this: even with barely a month with the team and a busted finer on his throwing hand, Vernon Adams was still almost enough to get this Ducks team over a quite sizable hump. Part of that is that Adams is an incredible individual talent that can be quite impressive even when he’s far from his best, but, maybe a bigger part of that is that there is a smorgasbord of talent all over this Ducks roster.
They don’t need a world-beater to win games, even against some of the best teams in the land. They just need someone who can get the ball in the hands of their talented playmakers and maybe make a play or two himself here and there, while limiting mistakes along the way.
Adams himself will tell you that he didn’t play good enough on this day, and that’s probably true. But, as he gets more reps in practice and becomes more and more comfortable in this offense and that finger starts to heal, we’ll see a more confident, and thus effective, Vernon Adams as the season progresses. And, that’s the last thing that Pac-12 teams want to hear. Which feeds nicely into reason #3…
The Pac-12 May Just Be the Best Conference in College Football
Sure, that might not be the best thing to hear when you’re trying to run the table over the course of your final 11 games, but, it definitely presents a great opportunity. Namely, that there is a 0.00% chance that a 1-loss Ducks team who runs roughshod over the Pac-12 gets left out of the Playoff picture. And, maybe more importantly, there is more than a 0.00% chance that a 2-loss Pac-12 champ Ducks team gets into the Playoff picture. Basically, the Pac-12 is finally primed to get the full-on SEC treatment.
Sure, there were a few black eyes during the season’s opening weekend (*cough* Washington State *cough*), but, for the most part the top of the conference avoided complete disaster and has left enough teams with little numbers next to their names smattered throughout the league to continue drawing the attention of media talking heads and playoff committee members alike. And, with that comes the self-referential respect that the SEC has bathed in for the better part of a decade.
For the conference as a whole, that means a near-guaranteed spot in the playoff field (barring a total bloodbath). For the Ducks, though, it presents a unique opportunity to prove to viewers everywhere that they are more than just the team that almost beat Michigan State. With games against nationally relevant opponents such as Utah, USC, Stanford, Arizona State still left on the schedule (not to mention UCLA or Arizona in a potential Pac-12 Championship Game), Oregon still has ample time to prove themselves to the college football world, and regain their spot among national title contenders.
Because, at the end of the day, we haven’t even cracked the third week of what is sure to be another crazy and unpredictable college football season. There are countless twists and turns still left to navigate, and at the end of the day, four teams will stand tall, ready to battle it out for their place in history. Call me optimistic, but, I don’t think it’s quite time to count these Ducks out quite yet.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
