On Tuesday, the Seattle Mariners introduced new general manager Jerry Dipoto to the media. Dipoto, previously the GM for AL West division rival Los Angeles Angels, resigned mid-season after essentially losing a power struggle with long time manager Mike Sciosia. While the narrative of that power struggle has been spun as the analytically inclined GM butting heads with the “old school” grizzled manager, Dipoto was likely not the most analytically inclined of the roughly forty early candidates or three finalists for the Mariners job.
Jonah Keri of Grantland and ESPN wrote back in early July following Dipoto’s resignation from the Angles that the friction between Dipoto and Sciosia was largely attributed to the GM’s frustration with the manager’s and coaching staff’s general lack of preparation for games on a day to day basis. Apparently, Sciosia preferred to essentially wing it and manage more by intuition or feel. The “analytics” that Dipoto was reportedly pushing really didn’t go much deeper than allowing pitchers to pitch to their strengths and actually reviewing the other team’s tendencies, not a failure to implement radical defensive shifts or foregoing bunting or base stealing.
What isn’t entirely clear from Dipoto’s stint with the Angels is whether or not, given a more receptive manager, if even more advanced analytics would have been implemented rather than the dumbed down version presented to Sciosia.
Dipoto’s Assessment of the Major League Club
Dipoto’s assessment of the Mariners major league club was mostly positive, noting a solid core, but the need for more length on the bench and more depth in the starting rotation and in the bullpen.
Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz would presumably be the core to which Dipoto referred. Following his breakout 2014 season, Seager has had roughly the same type of offensive season in 2015, but has regressed some defensively, lowering his overall WAR from 5.5 last season to 4 this season. Cano seems to have returned to form following a dismal first half of the season that may or may not have been the result of stomach issues. And, Cruz, who has had a career year offensively, should inevitably regress some going forward, but stands to plug in as an above average DH. So, yes, there are some solid core players to work with for a few years.
Case and point to the need to lengthen the bench was how long the Mariners stuck with Mike Zunino behind the plate, despite his abysmal offensive numbers. There was simply no one else in the organization prepared to handle a major league staff, as Welington Castillo was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Mark Trumbo deal. Never mind the endless parade of players to the corner outfield positions.
Pitching might be where Dipoto has underestimated the problem. At times this season, Felix Hernandez, long the ace of the staff and perennially in the Cy Young discussion, has looked shaky with signs of decline. Once heralded prospects Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are beginning to look no better than back of the rotation fill-ins, with Walker’s 4.56 ERA through 29 games started barely playable in today’s pitching rich environment. And, Hisashi Iwakuma, who has a one year option at a very reasonable $7M, has been injured most of the season and will turn 35 early next season.
The bullpen needs to be reconstructed, although it’s reasonable to assume that can be done in free agency, as most big league bullpens turn over significantly, year to year.
The State of the Farm System
The major issue facing the Mariners long term is the state of the farm system. As stars like Hernandez, Cano, and Cruz age, there’s simply a dearth of quality prospects coming up to replace them. When Keith Law of ESPN updated his top 50 prospects back in July not a single player from the Mariners organization appeared. Before the season began, Baseball America ranked the Mariners farm system 25th overall in baseball. And, Keith Law characterized the 2015 Mariners draft as one of the worst, if not the worst, in the industry. So, Dipoto has his work cut out for him.
Hope Springs Eternal
While Mariners fans have reason to be cautious and skeptical after being burned for fourteen years running, Dipoto should be a marked improvement over Jack Zduriencik or even Bill Bavasi, neither of whom was terribly interested in any type of analytics. Next season may see a bounce back and the major league level, but improvements have to get made really soon with both player scouting and player development or the near future could get really ugly in the Emerald City for baseball.
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