Portland Trail Blazers Roster Breakdown – CJ McCollum

Ushering in a new era of Portland Trail Blazers basketball seems to be the theme of the 2015 NBA offseason. The Rip City roster no longer resembles the crew that had back-to-back 50-win seasons over the past two years, but one thing it can hang its hat on is that youth and potential have become the beacons of hope in an otherwise confusing time.

In a 15-part series, Oregon Sports News’ Bryant Knox and Jared Wright will be breaking down each player on the Trail Blazers roster. The series will conclude with an OSN Roundtable in October covering the state of the franchise entering the 2015-16 campaign.

Today, we feature a young player who’s had his ups and downs in the NBA, from struggling with broken fingers, to being buried on the bench behind a 35-year-old man, to playing great basketball in the 2015 playoffs. Now, he will be asked to deliver the one commodity that’s eluded him so far: consistency.

Where He’s Been

CJ McCollum has had either an interesting two-year career or a non-descript one, depending on your perspective. From many points of view both national and local, his career has been injury-plagued. When he did get on the court, they argue, he was ineffectual and a non-entity.

They used the fact that Steve Blake, a mid-30s white guy on his last fumes as a basketball pro, was above him on the depth chart as proof that McCollum wasn’t trying hard enough, or that he was too frail physically and mentally, to survive in the bloodbath that was the Western Conference playoff race the last two seasons.

Those that supported CJ point out that he performed admirably when forced into action by the injuries to Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo last season. Here are McCollum’s averages from March 13 to the end of the season:

23.2 MPG, 11.7 PPG, 49% ( 90-183) FG%, 39% (23-59) 3PT%, 71% FT%

Not huge numbers, but the accuracy of his shot from the field was a great sign. McCollum had 10 double-digit scoring games in that 19-game span from March 13 to the end of the season, including seven straight in April and two 20-point outbursts.

His April numbers in particular were very good; he averaged 27 MPG, 15.6 PPG, and had 53/40/87 shooting splits. And when the playoffs came around…CJ took it to another level.

Check this out:

5 G, 33.2 MPG, 17 PPG, 48% FG% (32-67), 48% 3PT% (11-23) (!!!), 77% FT%

Those were his stats from the 2015 playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies. After laying two complete eggs in the first two games against Memphis (no Blazer played well in those games, to be honest), CJ exploded. He went for 26, 18, and a career-high 33 points in the last three playoff games against the Grizzlies. He and his team went down in five games to Memphis, but CJ McCollum went down fighting.

That kind of attitude will serve him well, as he’s at a crossroads now in his career. He’s been in and out of the rotation/disabled list during his time in Rip City, but now he’s going to get a chance to prove that his last 24 games weren’t a fluke.

How He Got Here

McCollum, out of Lehigh, was the 10^th overall selection in the 2013 Draft, which is looking to be very underwhelming so far. I understand it’s still too early to draw definite conclusions about a draft class two years in; McCollum is walking proof of that.

Still, consider this: the first pick that year, Anthony Bennett, has been dumped by not just one, but two different teams, with the Minnesota Timberwolves buying out his rookie contract recently. Zach Lowe of Grantland opined that Bennett might be the worst top overall draft pick in NBA history; this Blazer fan would like to suggest Greg Oden, but there’s no doubt Bennett is heading in that direction.

I’ve never heard of a No. 1 pick getting his rookie contract bought out before. The Wolves would rather give him $3.6 million to go away than have him on their roster. Woof.

The rest of that lottery is almost as underwhelming. Victor Oladipo is tasked with being the future of the Orlando Magic, something I’m not sure he’s fit for. Otto Porter of the Washington Wizards has been outplayed by Trevor Ariza, a geriatric Paul Pierce, and Rasual Butler before finally getting some momentum together at the end of last season.

Cody Zeller was yet another reach by a Charlotte franchise that specializes in them (this is one part of the game where you don’t want to be like Mike), Alex Len has been buried on the Phoenix Suns’ bench when he hasn’t been hurt, Nerlens Noel plays for a crazy franchise in Philly, Ben McLemore plays for an even crazier franchise in Sacramento, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hasn’t found his footing in Detroit as of yet.

I won’t get into the rest of the lottery, but let it be known that it looks like the best players to come out of the 2013 Draft are two guys that were picked 15^th and 27^th. You never, ever, EVER really know when it comes to the draft.

What He Brings To The Table

Three words: offense offense OFFENSE.  McCollum wasn’t drafted for rebounding (no guard ever is), nor really for defense. He does have a decent steals total, but I tend not to look at steals in determining how good a player is defensively. Too many random things can happen; if a guy dribbles the ball off of his own foot, and it just happens to roll to you, you get credited with a steal…and you did absolutely nothing to influence the ball handler. He just screwed up.

The one thing he does well is put the ball in the basket, and the stats I dug up on him (seriously, it’s surprising how much data you can dredge up on a guy who’s played only 100 career regular-season games) show that McCollum can do that in a variety of ways.

The math wizards among you will note that the percentages equate to 99%; the other 1% wasn’t measured by the NBA’s tracking cameras.

That is a delicious variety of ways McCollum can hurt a defense, whether by driving into the paint, pulling up after a screen play to hoist a J, or catching and shooting from beyond the three-point line.

One thing I need to point out is that McCollum’s percentage on catch-and-shoot three-pointers is a sterling 41%, while his success rate on pull-up shots of any kind is only 38%. Maybe Portland coach Terry Stotts can get CJ a few more chances to catch and shoot this upcoming season, but considering the unseasoned passers among the Blazers’ big men and wings, that might be unlikely. Too bad.

Another hint at McCollum’s versatile offensive game is what percentage of his field goals are assisted by his teammates. Out of his 55 made threes last season, only eight of them were unassisted, meaning that the vast majority of his threes came immediately off the catch-and-shoot, and were thus assisted on. Considering his percentages with that shot, that’s a good thing.

For those of you saying that McCollum can’t create his own shot, here’s some evidence that he indeed can, when pressed. Most of McCollum’s two-point field goals were unassisted, meaning that when he had to go inside the three-point arc, he made something happen.

The ratio of assisted-to-unassisted for CJ’s two-point field goals is 71-to-29, while on his threes, it’s 15-to-85. He understands why he’s here on this team, and it’s to score, by hook or by crook. Since almost 79% of his shots come between 24 and seven seconds left on the shot clock, that’s a safe assumption.

To reinforce McCollum’s skills at shooting, here’s another table:

His restricted area shooting is a little troublesome, but given that he’s a skinny, six-foot-four guard going in there amongst the trees, we’ll give him a pass. Everywhere else on the floor, CJ shoots a very good to elite percentage.

There are rumblings that McCollum will get some time at point guard. If he does, he needs to improve his turnover ratio, and slightly bump up his assist ratio too.

CJ’s TO ratio is 9.4 per 100 possessions; that means on every 100 possessions McCollum’s played, he’s coughed up the ball roughly one out of ten times. As his minutes and responsibilities will be increased this season, he needs to leave the turnover making to the bakers.

His assist ratio is 12.6 per 100 possessions, and his assist numbers per game have been very low for a guard, even during his late-season explosion in 2014-15. It seems impossible for a ball handler in Stotts’ style of offense to average just one assist a game, but that’s what McCollum averaged last season. He will need to be a more willing passer if he’s going to be a credible backup for Damian Lillard.

What To Expect

I realize I’ve spent about 800 words pumping up McCollum, so here is a hard dose of truth:

100 G, 14.5 MPG, 6.3 PPG, 43% FG%, 39% 3PT% (85-219), 69% FT%, 11.7 PER, 0.27 Wins Above Replacement Player

The above line contains his career stats. Except for the three-point shooting, everything  is pedestrian. The WARP in particular is damning; if the Blazers had picked up a player off the street (like Tim Frazier) and given him McCollum’s minutes through CJ’s two-year career, he’d have the same impact as McCollum on the court.

Basically, CJ McCollum has been no better than a replacement-level player two years after being a lottery pick.

The future fortunes of the Blazers, not to mention McCollum’s career prospects, very much depend on him turning that around. How he’ll be used will go a long way towards determining how successful he’ll be.

If Stotts uses McCollum like many of us Blazer observers see him being utilized as, which is a light-it-up sixth man, CJ can have a great chance to succeed. His NBA destiny is as a guy that can only defend backups, doesn’t pass very well, rarely rebounds, and scores the living piss out of the basketball. Pretty much a taller Mo Williams.

If Stotts, for whatever reason (injuries to other players, Gerald Henderson/Moe Harkless being bad, lack of offense in the starting lineup), tries to stretch McCollum by making him a starter or playing him 35 minutes a game, he’ll likely fail. McCollum is a guy that needs stability, to be comfortable in his role. If that role continually changes, he’ll have problems.

What to expect from McCollum will depend very much on how Stotts will make use of him. Stay tuned.

A quick aside: while I was spending hours researching for my two articles this week, my friend and fellow organizer of this 15-part series Bryant Knox was having a Twitter beef with Samuel L. Jackson (yes, the guy behind Jules, Mace Windu, Shaft, and other paragons of badassery). Awesome as that is, I’m sure you’re all weary of the endless statistical assault I’ve been launching. Bryant should be back at it shortly.

I hope…