Welcome to this week’s OSN Portland Trail Blazers Weekly Preview! Always on Mondays, always your first, best spot to see what your beloved Blazers will go up against this week, and review what they did right or wrong last week!
Bad defense, streaky shooting, many early shots, heaps of turnovers.
Those four things describe the Portland Trail Blazers’ first three games in a nutshell. Since there’s never been a nut I haven’t wanted to crack, however, let’s dive deeper into Portland’s play so far in this very young NBA season.
Bad defense: This is the factor I most expected to begin the season, as well as everyone who isn’t overly biased and understands some basketball. Young teams, like the Blazers, almost always stink on defense; unless those young teams employ a young prodigy, like Anthony Davis or Rudy Gobert, they’re basically going to learn NBA defense the hard way.
That hard way has been apparent from the get-go. I’m not just talking about the shoddy defense in the Phoenix games, either. New Orleans missed some open shots in the season opener, shots they would normally make if the Blazers hadn’t exhausted them in transition, or if the Pelicans had their full roster.
Streaky shooting: CJ McCollum is the target here, since his shooting, and the 35+ minutes per game he’s playing, have played a huge role in Portland’s performance.
In the Pelicans game, CJ shot 14-22 from the field, including 6-9 from three-point range, on his way to a 37-point game. In the two Phoenix games, McCollum made 13-37 field goals and was 3-13 from beyond the arc. Producing 16 and 17 points respectively in those two games, while soaking up a bunch of possessions with early shots instead of trying to run a play, depresses McCollum’s value to the Blazers. (A combined 33 points on 37 shots…UGH)
McCollum is best suited to a shoot-first, second, and always role, which is fine in 20 or 25 minute doses per game. Making him play 37 minutes and try to be a primary source of offense is not going to work. Here’s hoping Gerald Henderson is fit to play soon.
Early shots: You can see where Portland coach Terry Stotts is going here: strike with long threes before the defense can load up against Damian Lillard, then use those young legs to run, run, run. This worked very well in the New Orleans game, and it was the reason why the Blazers got that huge lead, and won the game.
The problem is that those early shots were balanced by good pick-and-roll action involving Lillard and either Mason Plumlee or Meyers Leonard. There were several plays against the Pelicans where Anthony Davis was so worried about Lillard that he stopped paying attention to the big man screening. On one play, Plumlee dove to the hoop, and Lillard fed him a slick pass for a bucket. On another, Leonard popped out on an old LaMarcus Aldridge action, and canned an easy 17-foot jumper.
That stuff is very basic, but Lillard is such a threat that every man on the defense is going to have at least one eye on him at all times. The Blazers must take advantage of that dynamic when Lillard is on the floor. When teams learn to respect the big men more on offense, things will get easier for Lillard, and for the Blazers as a team. Speaking of making things easier…
Too many turnovers: Nice segue! Lillard’s shooting has been expectedly inefficient. Being the sole focus of the defense, and not having the luxury of going one-on-one with eternal scrub Ish Smith like McCollum did, will drag those percentages down. That will continue until the rotation and offense settles, or Lillard stops chucking 30-footers twice a quarter.
His turnovers, though, are more troubling. He’s being crowded at the point of attack, true, but those are the times where Lillard has to find McCollum, and let him initiate a secondary action. Whenever Lillard has played without McCollum, though, he’s been pretty much screwed; Allen Crabbe and Mo Harkless are not very capable ball handlers.
Like his shooting percentages, Lillard will see those turnover numbers improve as the team around him gets more familiar with what Stotts wants to do. For the first couple months, and maybe for this whole season, it’ll be ugly.
Time for previews! Let’s go!
(All stats courtesy of NBA.com and basketball-reference.com. All games on AM 620 Rip City Radio)
Monday, Nov. 2: @ the Minnesota Timberwolves, 5:00 PM, CSNNW
Normally, I’d give the usual background info, player to watch, and all that, but that’s not important where this game is concerned. You see, this game is the first one the Timberwolves will play at home since their head coach and president of basketball operations, Flip Saunders, died of cancer last week.
It was a shock to my brother and I; just a few weeks ago, Saunders had been admitted to the hospital with what his doctors described as a “very treatable” form of lymphoma. We thought he would miss the season to recover, understandably so. But we thought he would make a recovery.
Unfortunately, Flip’s health took a nosedive. Sometimes, that can happen with serious diseases, and this downturn ended up taking Saunders’ life.
Flip Saunders and Kevin Garnett, who was brought back to the team last year by Flip, are the two preeminent figures in Minnesota pro basketball, which is admittedly devoid of accomplishments. The only real tangible success the Wolves have had in their 28-year history have been due to the partnership of a string-bean high school kid that became an NBA legend, and a refugee from the old CBA that became one of the winningest coaches in recent NBA history, and planted the seeds for the Minnesota Timberwolves’ revival.
The rebuild is by no means complete; Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are still kids, Ricky Rubio has been very injury-prone, and the other pieces are an odd mix of young players unsure of their roles and veterans caught on a bad team. Still, things are looking up after a decade of horrid management and having to trade away Kevin Love.
I expect the Wolves will take some time to honor Saunders during this game. I also expect that the players will come out with extra fire and passion for this game. Young teams tend to feed off of emotion, but even the most jaded, veteran squad of players would be deeply moved by what happened to their coach.
The Timberwolves will win tonight, and I won’t begrudge them the game one bit.
Wednesday, Nov. 4: @ the Utah Jazz, 6:00 PM, KGW
The Skinny: Rebuilding a team from the dregs back to contention in the NBA is much tougher than it is in the NFL, a high-variance league with high roster turnover, where health and having a star quarterback are the two biggest factors in success. It’s not as long-form as baseball, either; the NBA has been trying for years to cultivate a farm system as efficient as baseball’s, but since NBA teams typically only play nine guys major minutes and can carry only 12 on a roster, the NBA D-League mostly produces end-of-the-bench talents.
The Blazers, Timberwolves, and Jazz are on different sections on the road to contention. Portland has just started out; even with the advantage of having a top-25 player already in house with Lillard, the Blazers still need to acquire a core building block or two to pair with him. Spoiler: that core player isn’t currently on the Blazers’ roster.
Minnesota has their core pieces now. Wiggins and Towns project as top players at their positions, and a healthy Rubio is a wizard with the basketball. All three guys, most importantly, also figure to be very good defenders. Rubio has been hounding opposing point guards for years with his long arms and quick hands, while Wiggins was tossed into the fire. He was tasked with guarding the opponent’s top perimeter threat, a job he did pretty well at, for a rookie.
As for Towns, he projects to be the kind of rim-protecting menace the Wolves haven’t had since…well, since Kevin Garnett, who just so happens to be on the team with Towns. Incredible foresight by Saunders.
The Utah Jazz are furthest on the road out of these three teams. Not only do they have a core in place, some of their supporting players have emerged as well. The combo of Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors have served as anchors for the last few years after Deron Williams was traded and legendary Jazz coach Jerry Sloan retired, and they’re joined by monster center Rudy Gobert. There are questions whether the Jazz can create enough spacing for the offense to succeed, but if Favors can show a consistent midrange touch this season, watch out.
As for their supporting pieces, Trevor Booker is a solid third big man, the shooting guard combo of Rodney Hood and Alec Burks can provide good minutes (especially of one of them separates himself from the other), Joe Ingles is a reliable international veteran that can shoot a bit, and head coach Quin Snyder is very good at his job, and isn’t afraid to go small ball with Hayward at the 4 to juice the offense.
The one thing separating the Jazz from contending status, other than the youth of their roster, is a good point guard. It sounds ridiculous, but in a league where pretty much every damn team has a good point guard (and some have two, or more!), the Jazz somehow don’t have a good point guard on their roster!
Trey Burke has been a brick machine since being drafted ninth overall in 2013, shooting just 37% for his career. In a league where point guards are asked to score more often, you either have to shoot well enough to make defenses respect you, or you have to be an amazing passer. Trey Burke neither shoots nor passes well.
The other nominal point guard the Jazz drafted, Dante Exum, was a 2014 lottery pick (fifth overall) who is painfully young at 20 years old. He is also out for the season after tearing his ACL playing for his native Australia in an exhibition game against Slovenia last August.
Exum has more potential, is bigger, and is younger than Burke (who is 22), but even if Exum makes a full comeback, would it really behoove the Jazz to wait on his development? Favors and Hayward are ready now, Gobert is the interior defender they needed, and the rotation outside of point guard is playoff-worthy, even in the West.
Does Utah stick with Burke/wait on Exum, who’s lost a year of development after tearing his knee, or do they shell out in free agency for a veteran point capable of lifting the team into the playoff picture on a permanent basis?
Player To Watch: I’ll keep an eye on Al-Farouq Aminu, and his defense on Hayward. Hayward is the primary ball handler for the Jazz, partly because he makes good decisions, partly because Burke sucks, partly because Exum isn’t there to take the ball and learn first-hand this season.
Aminu has been pretty solid so far this year, and his shooting from the three-point corners has surprised me. If he can maintain that, he’ll have the starting small forward spot on lockdown. Given that the Blazers’ defense beside and behind him has been a mess, he must be on at all times against Hayward, and fight over as many picks as he possibly can.
Prediction: The Jazz are at home, and their team is more settled than Portland’s is. I’ll say Utah wins.
Thursday, Nov. 5: vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, 7:45 PM, TNT
The Skinny: The official time for tip-off is 7:30, but the early game always lasts longer than two and a half hours, due to national TV concerns. I tack on 15 minutes to national game starts, for your convenience, dear reader.
Anyway…the Grizzlies basically returned the same team that crushed Portland in their first-round playoff series last spring. Marc Gasol is still the anchor of the team. Mike Conley is still severely underrated in this era of information overload. Zach Randolph is still using his old-man tricks to punk millenials unused to guarding men on the block. Tony Allen is still offensively punchless and defensively merciless.
The thing with Memphis is that their core is now a year older, and they still don’t employ anybody that can shoot a three-pointer with consistency, other than Courtney Lee. Matt Barnes finds a way to play, but the Clippers wouldn’t have let him go if he could still shoot well. Vince Carter is a fossil, and Jeff Green is the antithesis of consistency.
Brandan Wright is a springy pick-and-roll finisher that will capably replace Kosta Koufos, but the same issue that has doomed the Grizzlies in the past will likely do them in again come May: they can’t shoot.
Player To Watch: Mason Plumlee. How he does against Gasol and Randolph will be a early litmus test for Plum. Ed Davis (who played for Memphis) and Meyers Leonard, as well as Noah Vonleh (hopefully), will also get first-hand lessons from two masters of big-man play.
Prediction: Even at their best, the Aldridge-Lillard Blazers stank against Memphis. Why would it be any different with Portland’s roster stripped down? Automatic loss.
Sunday, Nov. 8: vs. the Detroit Pistons, 6:00 PM, CSNNW
The Skinny: When discussing the Pistons so far this season, the talk begins and ends with one guy: Andre Drummond.
The 6-11 big man from UConn has spent his first three games of this season dominating opposing frontcourts. He’s posted games of 18 points and 19 rebounds, 18 and 10, and 20 and 20. Two-fifths of the rebounds he’s collected so far this season have been on the offensive end.
His free-throw shooting, oft-maligned as DeAndre Jordan-esque, has so far been at 58%, though I will say we’re just three games into the season.
One issue with Drummond is where he’s been taking his shots so far. He’s shot a terrible 41% overall, but to get full context, you have to dive deeper into his numbers, where he’s taking his shots, and what type of shots he’s taking.
He shot 12-16 on dunks and layups, which have always been his bread and butter. 75% isn’t that far from his usual percentage on those shots, and as he gets more dominant on the glass, and as the new Detroit offense pulls players away from the basket, he stands a solid chance of maintaining a similar percentage.
It’s the hook shots he’s struggled with so far. Drummond shot just 2-15 on hooks through three games, and those kinds of shots are usually taken out of post-ups. He lacks the ball skills to dribble around another big man, and he was bad on post-ups last season as well.
Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy, who coached Dwight Howard in Orlando, seems to be giving Drummond the same treatment he gave Howard eight years ago: stretch the defense with four shooters, and either get a good perimeter shot off, or get Drummond a one-on-one matchup in the paint and on the glass.
Drummond might not ever turn out to be a good post-up player. Howard didn’t, and those skills are both hard to learn and are lessening in value as the NBA steers towards perimeter play, threes, and pace-and-space styles.
If he can continue to be a beast on the glass, run great pick-and-rolls, serve as an anchor for the defense, and keep that free-throw percentage at around 50-55%, he should be a great big man. It also helps that he seems to be infinitely more coachable than Howard ever was, and much less of a diva.
Player To Watch: Whether it’s Plumlee or Davis, keeping Drummond off the glass is the number one priority for the Blazers in this game, and will be the battle to watch. Leonard is quick enough to stay with Ersan Ilyasova, the stretch-4 Van Gundy acquired from Milwaukee last season, but he’s nowhere near manly enough to hang with Drummond.
Another key will be those Detroit pick-and-rolls featuring Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Jackson makes too much money and is overrated, but he is quick. Lillard or whomever is guarding Jackson must help their young big men out by going under Drummond’s screens, keep the lob to Drummond for an alley-oop slam from happening, and force Jackson to shoot from the perimeter.
Jackson’s supposedly improved his shot, but the Blazers would rather have Jackson shoot jumpers than Drummond posterizing Plumlee and Davis.
Prediction: I’m guessing the Blazers pull out a win at home. The Pistons are undefeated as of Monday, but they’re going to drop a few games to inferior teams this year. This looks like one of those times.
Last week, both the Blazers and I went 1-2. I picked them to lose to New Orleans and win one of the Phoenix games; instead, they beat the Pellies and lost consecutive blowouts to the Suns.
I also made a bet with my brother before the season started. He says the Blazers will win 35 games this year. I think they’ll suck. If the Blazers win less than 35 games, he owes me $40. If they do win 35 games (or more), I owe him the same amount.
So, we’re going to add the Bro Counter to this section. If/when the Blazers are mathematically eliminated from winning 35 this season, I will take it down…and collect my hard-earned money.
Trail Blazers’ Record: 1-2
Jared’s Picks Record: 1-2
Bro Counter: 34 to go!
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