How Good Is Thomas Rawls?

After three consecutive weeks as the Seattle Seahawks starting running back, bringing his total as a starter up to six games for the season, Thomas Rawls may have some fans asking, “What mode?” Pressed into service for the first time in week three against the Chicago Bears, the undrafted rookie out of Central Michigan has rushed for over 100 yards four times in contests against the Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and last week against the Minnesota Vikings, in two separate stints as the replacement for the oft injured Marshawn Lynch. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks record in the six games Rawls has started is 5-1, compared to 2-4 when Lynch has started.

It’s safe to say that when football analysts bat around terms like “replacement level,” the performance turned in thus far by Rawls isn’t what they have in mind. In fact, in what will come as a surprise to none of the twelves in the Emerald City, Rawls is the single most efficient running back in the NFL with a minimum of 100 carries this season.

What Does DYAR and DVOA Say About Rawls?

According to Football Outsiders, a site devoted to advanced analytics in football, Rawls has a league leading Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) of 194, on a scale where zero represents replacement level. Only ten backs this season have DYAR over 100. By comparison, the much heralded Vikings running back, Adrian Peterson, ranks seventh at 108, and the beast that Rawls is replacing, Marshawn Lynch, ranks 18^th at 48.

Whereas DYAR seeks to measure “the value of the performance on plays where the RB caught/carried the ball compared to replacement level,” DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Replacement, strives to determine value over replacement level on the same or similar plays. Think of it as DVAR measures overall value and DVOA measures value on specific plays compared to his peers.

This concept will become immediately evident to those who play fantasy football. Most quarterbacks and wide receivers are more valuable than running backs, but it’s important to find value among running backs since their value has more scarcity.

Rawls is Very Valuable

So, in terms of overall value, Rawls is the most valuable running back in the league right now and the third most valuable offensive player on the team, behind Russell Wilson, with a DYAR of 661 (which only ranks 6^th btw – QB’s are VERY valuable), and Doug Baldwin, with a fourth ranked DYAR for WR of 281.

But in comparison to his peers using DVOA, Rawls ranks second as 24.4% more valuable than replacement level behind only Le’Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers whose season ended with a horrific knee injury at Kansas City on October 26^th. Bell, who missed the first four games of the season with a suspension, barely qualifies with only 113 carries. Giovani Bernard of the Bengals is the only other RB with value over 20% higher than replacement.

Does Rawls’ Ascendancy Mean the End of “Beast Mode?”

Another “stat” that will definitely draw the attention of the Seahawks’ front office is Rawls’ salary. He is currently signed for three years and $1.59M, or an average salary of $530K. Lynch, on the other hand, is in the first year of a two year deal calling tor $24M or a salary cap hit of $12M this year and next. Given that NFL contracts are not guaranteed and that freeing up $11.5M in cap space will surely be enticing, Seahawks fans are probably going to get to see a whole lot more of Mr. Thomas Rawls.