A Division Title For The Seattle Mariners?

With April clearly in the rear view mirror and receding quickly, the Seattle Mariners find themselves in first place in the American League West, occasionally flirting back and forth with the Texas Ranges for the top spot. Does this early success indicate a Mariners’ team far better than was projected before the season? Well, they have won six consecutive series after sweeping the Oakland A’s. But, the more likely explanation is that the rest of the division, and for that matter the American league, is probably a little worse than conventional wisdom assumed going in to the season.

As of Cinco de Mayo, the Mariners’ record stood at 16-11 for a .593 winning percentage with a +29 run differential. Only the Texas Rangers, sitting in second at 15-13, also have a positive run differential. Most surprising by pre-season forecasts has to be the Houston Astros. Picked by many to win the division, the Astros pitching has been horrendous giving up an astonishing 4.93 runs per game, leading to a -22 run differential and a 10-18 record going in to last night’s games.

But that’s just the division. Looking across leagues, the top three teams in baseball are in the National league, with the Chicago Cubs (yea…that’s not a typo), the New York Mets, and the Washington Nationals head and shoulders above all of baseball. And, to be fair, the Chicago White Sox are pretty darned good too. Can you imagine how insufferable a Cubs v. White Sox World Series would be?

So in a year that the American league is a little weaker than the National league and the American league west is a little weaker than previously projected, could Seattle sneak into the playoffs? Well, it’s very early, still, but the answer is a resounding maybe.

After all of April and a smattering of May, FanGraphs’ projections now have the Mariners as the only team in the AL west to finish with a winning season. After a good start and given weighted account for their pre-season projections, they should now finish 85-77. The same assumptions (good start / bad start / weighted projections) predict an 81-81 Houston Astros club, an 80-82 Los Angeles Angels squad, a 79-83 Oakland A’s team, and a 79-83 Texas Rangers ball club. So first place?

Most analysts will tell you not to be too confident in altering pre-season projections until about 40 games in to the season. So, later in May the picture will come a little bit more in to focus.

For anyone interested in the complexity of forecasting baseball futures, the book Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting Baseball comes highly recommended. Or, if you’re not interested in the calculations but just the results, FanGraphs rocks.

Do keep in mind that the projections aren’t gospel. After all, most projections systems like FanGraphs and Pecota over at Baseball Prospectus have placed the Kansas City Royals in the cellar of the AL central for three years in a row. But, for now, Mariners’ fans have a reason to be optimistic.